Wednesday, September 23, 2009, 1:00PM: With today’s DOE report showing continued growth in the supply of gasoline, due to poor demand, NYMEX prices are already dropping, so we can expect retail prices to continue to drop. No price hike this week, and we are heading for the $2.30’s. — Ed Aboufadel
Comment on the August 3 prediction: Prices rose to $2.69 the next day, slightly below the $2.72-$2.82 range I predicted. But, I’ll call it CORRECT regardless.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009, 4:20PM: I spent last week near Cheboygan. Prices were frozen at $2.69 up there all week, while the games continued in Grand Rapids. Let’s see where we are today. Retail prices range from $2.41 to $2.64 right now, according to GasBuddy. NYMEX indicates wholesale prices around $1.88, which leads to a calculation of $2.41 as the 0-cent margin price — of course! So, I think we’ll see a hike before the end of the week, with the new price in the neighborhood of $2.59. — Ed Aboufadel
Looking at the numbers, the averages here in the Speedway states are low compared to the Chicago spot’s break even price. This is due in part to the biggest climb in one day for wholesale in quite some time, 13 cents on the NYMEX, and 16 cents in the Chicago spot. Friday they went up again, and today is already up by 5 cents.
We may receive a late day spike today, and most definitely will see one by the usual time tomorrow morning. I see $2.70s being widespread, and some $2.80s being possible depending on what the markets end at today.
Comment on the July 19 prediction: Prices rose twice last week, to $2.45 on 7/21 and then to $2.55 on 7/23. Take the average, and you pretty much have my CORRECT prediction.
Thursday, July 30, 2009, 4:00PM: Uh oh. NYMEX gas prices are up 13 cents a gallon today! Using my formula, a price re-set would be in the range of $2.59-$2.64. I expect this will be the new price on Friday. — Ed Aboufadel
Comment on the July 6 prediction: As predicted, prices have been dropping steadily, down to $2.25 along Lake Michigan Drive, in fact. So, the prediction was CORRECT.
Sunday, July 19, 2009, 11:00 AM: Retail prices have fallen significantly this month, lagging but in line with the drops in the wholesale price as indicated by NYMEX and elsewhere. However, last week’s rally on Wall Street started to affect the energy markets late in the week, and NYMEX prices rose 13 cents a gallon. We are at the point where rising wholesale prices are colliding with dropping retail prices, which means a price hike is on its way, perhaps as soon as Monday. I predict a re-set to $2.49 a gallon, except for the handful of gas stations still at that price. Yes, I’m talking to you Speedway Ada! — Ed Aboufadel
Comment on my June 30 posting: Prices reset to $2.69 on July 1, except for places where it had never fallen below $2.69.
Monday, July 6, 2009, 6:30PM: Wholesale prices have dropped significantly in the past week. With today’s close, I have the 0-cent margin price at a pretty $2.25. So, unless there is a dramatic reversal on NYMEX the next few days, the prediction is lower prices, with drops of at least 2-4 cents per day.