There are a lot of weird things going on right now, so I have no clue what is going to be happening this week. Here’s what’s odd: First, I average the current and next month NYMEX futures numbers to estimate the wholesale price. At yesterday’s close, the March future was $1.25 and the April was $1.41. But the March future just closed, now I use April and May. The May was $1.43, so that changes my wholesale estimate from $1.32 to $1.42 in one day, which doesn’t make a lot of sense. Second, you’ve got gas for $1.87 on 44th street and $2.05 on Alpine. The $1.87 suggests a price rise, like, tomorrow, to around $2.09, except that’s close to the Alpine price already. So, let’s just keep an eye on prices this week, and I have no prediction.
Tag: no prediction
Ahead of the weekly report on gasoline stocks, I am rescinding my Monday prediction and just having no prediction right now. There was a decent drop in wholesale prices on Monday, putting the 20-cent margin price at about $2.07. Many places are at that price right now, but some are at $1.95, so I just don’t know what to predict for the rest of this week. Good thing I took that prediction back — there was no price hike on Wednesday or Thursday.
Although futures prices have fallen a bit this week, if there weren’t a number of places in town in the low $1.80’s, I would say no price hike for the rest of the week. The way things are, there could be a price hike, and some places wouldn’t even change their prices. So, no prediction. No price hike, and gas prices continued to fall, to as low as $1.65.
Thanks to the vigilant eyes of grandrapidsgasprices.com, there is enough evidence to conclude that Speedway and Marathon (same company) are usually the ones that raise prices first, so we now stipulate that Mr. Big works for them, and probably has an office here in Grand Rapids. As to gas prices this week, wholesale prices are the same as a week ago, so we could see prices reset back to $1.67 again, or they could drift down to the low $1.50’s. So, no prediction for now, but perhaps the situation will be clearer on Wednesday.
If there’s a price hike this week, it would be up to $1.53 or so. The 0-margin price is about $1.30. Since prices in town are currently ranging from $1.41 to $1.53, there is a room for prices to fall, but Mr. Big could also order up a price hike. So, at this moment, no prediction. The magic 8-ball might get clearer by Wednesday morning.
This is a difficult time of year to make predictions. With the end of September, the federal requirement for reformalated gasoline, to reduce pollution, is no longer in force, so the “Chicago Summer Premium” goes away. This should take 10 cents off of wholesale and retail prices, and I expect the CSP has already been shrinking. Without the CSP, the 0-margin price of gasoline is about $1.32 right now. Mr. Big might decide on a price hike this week, because some stations are selling gas for $1.37 right now, but I just don’t know, since prices are $1.47 in a lot of places, too. So, no prediction this week. Mr. Big ordered the new price to be $1.59 on Thursday. In a classic gas game moment, I was able to fill up at $1.45 at a station that was slow to implement the new price.