Tag: futures

I want to buy gas for less than $4

Comment on the June 26 prediction:  Prices rose on June 27 to a record $4.19, so the prediction was CORRECT.  Retail prices have slowly slipped since then.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008, 3:30 PM:  I’ve been slow to post recently due to general family and holiday business, and that nasty storm last week, combined with mixed signals in the futures market.  As the writers on the GasBuddy site point out, there are price hikes here but not there, and the cost to retailers in the area isn’t lining up well with NYMEX or AXXIS.  It makes it hard to predict when we will get a hike.  I have three estimates of the 0-margin price this afternoon:  $3.93 from ‘fncman’, $3.99 based on NYMEX, and about $4.06 based on AXXIS, which has been the least reliable this summer.  So, with prices in the $4.08-$4.19 range in Grand Rapids, we have room to drop.  The prediction is no price hike the rest of the week, and someone locally is going to offer gas for less than $4 this weekend.

Huge selloff, risk of collapse?

Afternoon update:

I’m closely monitoring a huge selloff in gasoline and oil markets at this hour. Gasoline futures are down nearly 20 cents per gallon (7%+!) and oil futures are negative as well.

This could be a significant turnaround for oil and gasoline as MANY now fear the economy may be more damaged than previously thought after news of Bear Stearns being bought by Chase rattles traders.

There could be a hike that is already in the pipes for Grand Rapids (meaning it was decided before today) so that might still come to pass, but look for local prices to nosedive soon, pending the final numbers today.

This could be a sign that the oil market’s momentum has turned negative, especially since the dollar hit new lows with nearly all world currencies today.

I’ll keep an eye on it.

Start preparing for a hike… next few days

As we work our way down to 2.79 and possibly lower, keep in mind that a price hike will near as we get closer to 2.75.

Gasoline futures have dropped so the prices will follow, but keep in mind, we’re still not in the best shape…

I’ll be somewhat penciling in a hike for later this week, pending the DOE report on Wednesday and pending prices to slide even more. Any hike should not exceed $3 at this point in time which is nice, but we’ll see what happens later this week on the market.

Also- if you hear that oil stockpiles took a hit Wednesday, keep in mind thats an old tradition. The less inventory you have on hand at the end of the year, the less tax you pay on it. Refiners are drawing down on stocks and producing as much as they can before the end of the year. Will this play in to prices? You bet. It could go both ways.

Stay tuned!

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Marathon to pay $1 million in oil price manipulation fine

From CNNMoney.com:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Marathon Oil Corp. agreed to pay a $1 million fine to settle charges that its Marathon Petroleum Company subsidiary attempted to manipulate crude oil prices in 2003, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced Wednesday.The commission said it issued an order requiring Marathon to pay the penalty for attempting to manipulate a price of spot cash West Texas Intermediate crude oil which was delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma on November 26, 2003.The commission says Marathon attempted to drive down the Platts market assessment for spot cash, which is used as the price of crude oil certain transactions.

Looks like Marathon/Speedway finally got *caught* manipulating oil prices. Now, what happened to the Kentucky AG who sued Speedway/Super America? I’d like to see the same result there!

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BP’s Whiting Refinery is AGAIN partially shut down/most shut down.

We’re going to see local prices SPIKE as we’ve already seen a hike to 3.25.

“BP apparently shut a crude unit at its 410,000 barrel per day
Whiting, Ind., refinery,” said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc.

The unit processes 250,000 barrels of crude per day, which itself is larger
than many refineries, Evans said. The shutdown created concerns among
traders that gasoline production would be hurt — sending futures
higher — and that there will be less demand for crude, sending oil
futures lower.

BP is shutting a 250,000 barrel-a-day crude unit, the largest of three at Whiting, the biggest refinery in the U.S. Midwest, a person familiar with the plant’s status said today. A restart date hasn’t been determined. A second crude unit, able to process about 75,000 barrels a day, is also out of service and may restart at the end of the summer.

The outage was the latest in a series of refinery problems that pushed U.S. refining capacity to its lowest in 19 years

EVEN MORE Refinery Shutdowns!! WHAT IS GOING ON!?

From Bloomberg:

Gasoline futures jumped 4.3 percent yesterday after Sunoco Inc. shut a 36,000 barrel-a-day gasoline pipeline supplying Buffalo, New York and ConocoPhillips shut a unit at its Borger, Texas, refinery for five weeks of maintenance. BP Plc will shut a 115,000 barrel-a-day gasoline unit at its Texas City plant for 11 days, Reuters reported, citing a trader it didn’t name.


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