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7 comments Saturday 20 Sep 2008 | Posted By Ed Aboufadel | Commentary

You know that part of the intellectual basis for The Gas Game is to use energy prices on future markets to approximate wholesale prices and then try to predict what is going to happen to retail prices. Following the futures markets have always made me wonder if they are manipulated, or perhaps the better word [...]

4 comments Monday 15 Sep 2008 | Posted By Ed Aboufadel | Predictions

Monday, September 15, 2008, 4:20PM:  I think we’ll look back on this weekend as the turning point for gas prices for quite a while.  On Friday and Saturday, there were price hikes to $4.09 and then $4.19, driven by fears of massive shortages due to Hurricane Ike striking Texas, and a sense that we were [...]

10 comments Wednesday 10 Sep 2008 | Posted By Patrick | Commentary

First off: Read this post thoroughly if you want to find out WHY prices are justified.
A brief thank you to Tom Kloza for taking the time out of his day (Publisher @ OPIS) to respond to a few questions I had.
I now understand and can say that I know why Grand Rapids (and all of [...]

0 comments Tuesday 09 Sep 2008 | Posted By Patrick | Predictions

Expected retail price = 1.06*(WP + RM + FF + TX + MS) + ST
WP = estimated wholesale price
(average of current and next month futures prices)
RM = estimated retail markup (as much as 20 cents per gallon)
FF = Fudge factor, which takes into account variations between New York and Chicago wholesale prices, and competition situations [...]

0 comments Tuesday 09 Sep 2008 | Posted By Patrick | Predictions

This page is filled with great information on the math behind gasoline prices, the stats of hikes, days they are most likely to occur, and the data behind why prices rise and fall. This information is about as raw as it gets, meaning it is hard to understand for some who haven’t looked at it [...]

2 comments Thursday 04 Sep 2008 | Posted By Patrick | Commentary

News this noon from WSJ that oil companies may have reported false oil inventory levels to benefit their positions:
The U.S. futures market regulator is investigating whether companies are reporting false oil inventory levels to benefit their trading positions, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
The paper, quoting people familiar with the probe, said the Commodity [...]