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0 comments Tuesday 09 Sep 2008 | Posted By Patrick | Predictions

Expected retail price = 1.06*(WP + RM + FF + TX + MS) + ST
WP = estimated wholesale price
(average of current and next month futures prices)
RM = estimated retail markup (as much as 20 cents per gallon)
FF = Fudge factor, which takes into account variations between New York and Chicago wholesale prices, and competition situations [...]

1 comment Friday 11 May 2007 | Posted By Ed Aboufadel | Commentary

Friday, May 11, 2007, 1:30 PM:  Looking at the price hikes of 5/3 (to $3.25) and 5/10 (to $3.29), it is as if the margin retailers are using has jumped from 20 cents to 50 cents.  That, of course, isn’t true, and we can tell from the fact that prices did not drop down into [...]

0 comments Friday 21 Apr 2006 | Posted By Ed Aboufadel | Predictions

As I have posted before, the most difficult part of studying gas prices is figuring out the wholesale prices. I use the NYMEX “HU” unleaded gasoline contract as a proxy, because I don’t have access to the wholesale prices in west Michigan. Lately, I’ve also been observing the “RB” gasoline w/ethanol contract, which [...]

0 comments Tuesday 04 Apr 2006 | Posted By Ed Aboufadel | Predictions

NYMEX prices have gone down the last few days, and the end of the March contract seemed to have helped, too. This morning, we are looking at wholesale prices of about $1.87. That corresponds to a 20-cent margin price (with no Midwestern premium tacked on) of $2.61. With the recent fudge factor [...]

0 comments Monday 23 Jan 2006 | Posted By Ed Aboufadel | Predictions

I was suprised that last Wednesday’s price hike wasn’t worse, given past history. Also, seeing prices in Grand Rapids and Detroit (where I visited last weekend) in the mid $2.20’s makes me wonder why we are getting such a discount right now versus the New York Unleaded (NYMEX) prices. I’m not complaining, but [...]

0 comments Wednesday 30 Nov 2005 | Posted By Ed Aboufadel | Predictions

9:00AM: The dramatic slide in wholesale gasoline prices that started at the end of August is continuing this week. Wholesale prices are a dime a gallon lower than a week ago, meaning the 0-cent margin price is $1.88 this morning (factoring in a -4 cents fudge factor that emerges every year at this [...]