Sorry we haven’t posted on here for so long. It’s for a good reason, though… we haven’t had to. If prices aren’t going up, I usually won’t put a prediction here. But I do still update “Fair Price” threads on GasBuddy.com sites in Indy, Indiana, and Michigan daily. I might start posting something similar on the Gas Game’s Facebook page.
We are in grave danger of a spike, and soon. Michigan’s average is almost 2 cents above the break even point. Indiana is almost 9 cents above. We don’t usually see spikes on Wednesdays, but there is a possibility of one tomorrow. If it doesn’t come, and the bottom doesn’t fall out of the market, it will come on Thursday. I’m a little iffy on a price prediction, but $2.60-$2.75 seems about right in Indiana and Michigan. Since Michigan is paying a premium of 7 cents over Indiana right now, they will be on the high side of that. NW Indiana should see a 10 cent premium over Indiana’s price.
Comment on Thursday’s prediction: We got a hike on Friday to $2.59. CORRECT.
Monday, August 3, 2009, 2:00PM: Once again, stocks rally and so does energy prices. We are up at least 10 more cents at the wholesale level since Thursday, so another price hike is on its way. Look for retail prices in the $2.72-$2.82 range Tuesday or Wednesday. So, I’m agreeing with Bill! — Ed Aboufadel
If you haven’t already, do look at the previous post Ed put out about gouging in Michigan. These are good reads for those interested in the oil industry, too.
Now, on to business. With a spike up in everything oil/gas/diesel, we are very ripe for a spike tomorrow. I’m putting it at about 65% possible. The margins for Michigan and Indiana just fell below 0 today after riding a period of profit taking. It’s possible we won’t see a jump tomorrow as Speedway and the other stations wait for the weekly DOE report Wednesday for which direction we should see for the end of the week. But it’s been a while since the last one, I’m betting on a spike up to the $2.67-2.73 range.
Do fill up tonight/early tomorrow as spike protection.
With wholesale gas prices going up again today, we are at near break even margins here in Indiana (with a little breathing room in Michigan). Prices here in the PADD2 area are now putting us in the red when it comes to national prices on the GasBuddy color map. Today it went up due to yet another DOE report where we are at a low 47.4 million barrels of gas, down from over 52 million barrels a couple weeks ago. There has to be something wrong with the supply, but for now I can only give you the bad news of higher prices, not the reason for them.
There is a possibility of a spike tomorrow. Since it would be the second in a week, something that usually doesn’t happen, there is also the possibility it won’t happen. But be on the lookout for prices going into the $2.70s, and possibly the low $2.80s if it does go.
With prices falling locally and wholesale prices remaining relatively flat, we’re close to a price hike.
I am led to believe that odds are against a hike, but it’s very close. If you need gas and can find it on your next trip out for less than $2/gal, I would definitely fill up. I’m nearing “E” and need gas soon, but I’ll probably wait until Monday.
The DOE report released today was excellent, and I don’t see any reason why prices should rally in the future. I expect that crude prices slowly fall over the next few weeks unless the economy makes some remarkable comeback.
As Speedway raised prices to $1.999 this morning, oil was busy having a rally of it’s own. The active April contract hit just shy of $50/bbl today, and tomorrow’s Department of Energy report may result in an extended oil rally (meaning higher gasoline prices).
The DOE report tomorrow is setting the stage for $50 oil. Good report, oil could show a good decline. The front month April contract resisted hitting $50 today, but May and June surpassed $50/bbl.
It’s going to be up to the DOE report. I’m almost to the point where I say if the DOE report is bad, oil will begin a longer rally (weeks/months?) and if it’s good, we could go back down to around $43.50 and wait.
Tomorrow either the bulls will be let out or the bears. I have a feeling we’re seeing the beginning of a oil rally that will last into Summer.
Having said all that, wholesale prices for gasoline also rose 5-cents today. Speedway and friends are in a pinch- do they wait and see if the DOE report is good or bad? Or do they raise prices Wednesday to $2.09 and hope the DOE report is good so they won’t have to raise THREE DAYS in a row?
We’ll see. I’m betting on no hike tomorrow, but Thursday it’s looking likely…. everything at this point depends on the 10:30am EDT release of the hyped DOE report.