Tag: diesel

The Spike Line

More information on the formulas used to figure the taxes and fees adjustments can be found below. Click on a picture to the right to see a larger view.
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Updated 09/20/17 07:38 PM EST

Spike Line Statistics for 9/20/2017

($USD)
Chicago Spot $1.5301
Change UP $0.0001
USA Average $2.588
($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio
Spike Line Deviation $0.0582 $0.1312 $0.1572 $0.0800
Spike Line Price $2.2058 $2.2058 $2.3048 $2.2280
Movement $0.0001 $0.0001 $0.0001 $0.0001
Average $2.2640 $2.3370 $2.4620 $2.3080
Movement -$0.0300 -$0.0240 -$0.0210 -$0.0210

Gas Price Statistics

($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio
Low $2.139 $2.059 $2.139 $2.000
High $2.599 $2.699 $2.899 $2.699

Diesel Price Statistics

($USD) Indy, Indiana, Michigan
Chicago low sulfur diesel: $1.8145
Change $0.0294
($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio
Spike Line adjustment: $0.792 $0.792 $0.897 $0.604
Spike Line: $2.607 $2.607 $2.711 $2.419

 

    

Indy Spike Line Chart


      

Indiana Spike Line Chart


      

Michigan Spike Line Chart


      

Ohio Spike Line Chart


Taxes and fees formula for Indianapolis/Indiana

CS + (CS*.07) + ST + FT + IC + CO + FR + RA
Currently: $0.7111

CS = Chicago Spot
CS*.07 = Indiana Sales Tax (7%)
ST = State Tax or 18¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
IC = Inspection Charge or 1¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 18¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢
RA = Rack Adjustment = -$0.0354

Taxes and fees formula for Michigan

CS + ((FT + CS)*.06) + ST + FT + EC + CO + FR + RA
Currently: $0.7898

CS = Chicago Spot
ST = State Tax or 26.3¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
((CS + FT)*.06) = Michigan Sales Tax on Chicago Spot and Federal Tax
EC = Environmental Charge or 1¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 18¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢
RA = Rack Adjustment = -$0.0151

Taxes and fees formula for Ohio

CS + ST + FT + CO + FR + RA
Currently: $0.6740

CS = Chicago Spot
ST = State Tax or 28¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 16¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢
RA = Rack Adjustment = $0.0239

Currently I am adding 19.1 cents to the Indy/Indianapolis diesel taxes and fees and 15.9 cents to the Michigan diesel taxes and fees based on how much more taxes are for diesel on the GasBuddy Gas Taxes chart.

The Spike Line is a feature that has been around a while here at TheGasGame.com. Here we will determine a “Spike Line” based on market forces and help you in figuring when is the right time to buy gas.

We start with the Chicago Spot. This is the base line that stations should be paying before they pay taxes, fees, and other stuff like wages, rent and electricity. Those things are factored in with the Spike Line Adjustment. The Rack Adjustment is the difference between Chicago’s weekly rack number and Indianapolis’s, Detroit’s, or Cleveland’s, depending on your state.

Add those all together, and we get the Spike Line. See how close that is to the average for the day (and I judge it by the GasBuddy average) And that is the Spike Line Deviation. Too large a deviation, and you should hold off on buying gas. Closer to zero, and you should keep an eye on prices, as a spike is close. If it is in the negative, buy ASAP, because a spike could be coming.

 

Spike possible tomorrow

If you haven’t already, do look at the previous post Ed put out about gouging in Michigan. These are good reads for those interested in the oil industry, too.

Now, on to business. With a spike up in everything oil/gas/diesel, we are very ripe for a spike tomorrow. I’m putting it at about 65% possible. The margins for Michigan and Indiana just fell below 0 today after riding a period of profit taking. It’s possible we won’t see a jump tomorrow as Speedway and the other stations wait for the weekly DOE report Wednesday for which direction we should see for the end of the week. But it’s been a while since the last one, I’m betting on a spike up to the $2.67-2.73 range.

Do fill up tonight/early tomorrow as spike protection.

Congratulations, Patrick, and Good Luck!

I want to publicly congratulate Patrick on this step forward in his career.  He had been keeping me abreast of his conversations with GasBuddy, and I was anticipating when this day will come.

When Patrick joined up with me a few years ago, The Gas Game was just a hobby of mine.  Some of you may recall my article in the Grand Rapids Press in 2002, along with my web site at gvsu.edu, as examples of this hobby.  With Patrick’s hard work, thegasgame.com became something special, with a great logo; RSS, reader comments and other tools to expand access; and several other obvious and hidden enhancements that have increased the visibility of this site.  Thank you, Patrick, for all the work you’ve done on this site.

Patrick and I have gone through a lot with this site the past few years.  The explosion of gas prices from below $2 to $4.25 brought us a lot of attention, and the dizzying drop this past year back below $1.50 has been amazing, too.  Due to all the news about gas prices the past few years, the site has been noted in media from Chicago to Washington, DC.

I don’t want to make it sound like we’re done now.  I will continue to post regularly to the site, making my comments and predictions about gas prices and possible hikes.  But with Patrick moving to Gas Buddy, postings on this site will be less frequent, and, as you may have noticed, I tend to focus on connecting the price of the futures to retail prices and pay less attention to refinery issues and Speedway rewards programs.  My quiet study of diesel continues, and I expect to have something intelligent to say about diesel pricing before the end of the year.  And, perhaps I’ll get another featured writer for the site.

Ed

Are we going back to $2.09 or higher on Friday?

Comment on the March 21 prediction:  Prices rose to $2.09 on the 24th, so the prediction was CORRECT.  We’ve seen slow drops since then.

Thursday, April 2, 2009, 2:45 PM:  NYMEX is up 9 cents today, making me nervous about a price hike on Friday, back to $2.09 or maybe even higher.  Yes, let’s make that a prediction.

Turning to diesel prices, I continue to monitor retail prices but I haven’t figured anything out yet.  I will note that at my benchmark Speedway station on Lake Michigan Drive, prices dropped for weeks to get down to $1.92 on March 19, but three price hikes and a small drop, it is at $2.15.  On my “to do” list for the summer is to see if I can figure this out.

Speedway States prepare for more price hikes!

That’s right, I expect another good jump in gas prices, as soon as tomorrow (Friday) in many Speedway States. Speedway did not raise as high as anticipated resulting in a higher risk of a price hike sooner, and the wholesale market was up a large amount today.

Wholesale spot prices from Chicago rose 13-cents today and close at $1.35/gallon, nearly a 40-cent rise since Monday! Prices have risen about 15-cents today, but stations are going to be very eager NOT to lose money and will likely be forced to make a larger second hike. In my opinion, Speedway is probably upset that they only raised prices to $1.85 when they really could have gone higher. Now they might be forced to deal with negative PR with two price hikes. Will they hold out to Monday to avoid some negativity? Its happened before, but as you can see, they’re still losing a LOT of money per gallon with their small 15-cent hike. Prices at Speedway would need to jump to $2.05 to equal the same price on the wholesale market tonight.

We may see Speedway attempt to raise to $2.05 in a very odd fashion, or you may see small stations attempt to rise first with a very disorganized Speedway hike- I’m not sure how it will happen, but I am led to believe it WILL happen and SOON!

Diesel prices around the Midwest should be dropping below gasoline prices in many areas as well. Refiners have already begun to boost gasoline production but it looks like with stronger than average demand, prices will continue to advance higher.

There also continues to be small refinery disruptions nationwide tonight with multiple refineries in Louisiana having issues.

There is also belief that since Oil has broken the 50-day moving average, we are in the beginning stages of a rally in oil prices, which would mean my opinion that we have “rounded the corner” (Spring run up in prices) was correct, but we’ll need to wait and see.

One thing is for sure, if you delayed or forgot to fill up, it is still better to fill up at $1.85 than $2+.

Speedway States prepare for higher prices!

More price hikes coming for most of U.S., poor DOE report

Today’s DOE report definitely wasn’t so hot- showing a large loss in gasoline stockpiles when an increase was expected. Traders polled were expecting a small 500,000 barrel increase in gasoline stockpiles and the DOE reported a loss of 2.6 million barrels.

In an interesting twist, supplies in storage in the Midwest region actually rose over a million barrels, which may cause the Midwest to see prices staying under the national average for some time.

Refining continues to be a poor money maker, but with this news, I expect wholesale  gasoline prices to climb, causing refiners to slowly increase production due to increasing margins.

Speedway has been all over the map in the Midwest lately, with a hike last week in Minneapolis, and a hike yesterday in the Great Lakes area. While most of the nation should see slowly increasing wholesale prices, the Midwest should feature either flat wholesale prices or rising disproportionately slow compared to the rest of the country.

On another note, Diesel should slowly become cheaper than gasoline in many areas of the country over the next few months as driving season approaches.

States that have recently seen Speedway price hikes (this week) should be stable without a huge price hike (barring some large news maker), but areas outside the Midwest will continue to see prices climb.

Patrick

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