Tag: Chicago Premium

Expecting $3.09 again before the long holiday weekend

Comment on Friday’s prediction: Prices have fallen the past several days, below $3 in many places, so a CORRECT prediction.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007, 3:30 PM: Of note is that the NYMEX and AXXIS prices have been pretty much the same for a month now, which demonstrates that there is no Chicago premium on prices right now, as is usually the case this time of year. Also of note is that wholesale prices have been steady for the past several days, while retail prices have been dropping. To me, that means the odds are high for a price re-set back to $3.09 on Thursday or Friday, and that is my prediction.

Re-hike to $2.99+ soon!

Just to throw this out there: I’m expecting a rehike to $2.99-$3.09 as soon as today but more likely tomorrow or Wednesday. The Chicago Premium is back (as noted a few posts ago) due to midwest refinery problems (thanks to the heavy heavy flooding in Ohio)

On another note, there is extreme flooding in Findlay, Ohio (Speedway/Super America/Marathon) Headquarters. Maybe its a message? I can’t help but make the connection.

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Midwest PADD down to 46 million barrels, Chicago Premium is back!

Just took a glance at yesterdays DOE numbers once more and it looks like the Midwest PADD numbers have fallen back down to 46+ million barrels. This is the lowest we’ve seen in some time and could add 10-15 cents per gallon until local refiners kick it into high gear.

Apparently refineries in the Midwest are suffering some severe setbacks (I missed the news story, and can’t find it) but there was a fire at a refinery at some point, and its causing us to keep dropping week after week. A refinery in Coffeyville has recently restarted after the flooding there in Nebraska, so that should help a little bit, but look for local prices to stay higher because of the low amount of gasoline in storage.

Re-hikes to over $3 are definitely a possibility. Stay near full. I plan to get gas for 2.89 ASAP.

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As low as 2.13, hike soon? Tough call. Anyone selling a car?

Hi there everyone, hope you’ve all filled up for under $2.20 in the
past few days, because I’m not totally sure if we’ll get a hike soon.

While the DOE report this Wednesday was kind of poor, I noted that
there was a large build of gasoline into the Midwest PADD district.
Early last week the Midwest PADD had 49.4 million barrels of finished
gasoline, and last Wednesday that number jumped to 52.5 million
barrels, which most likely changed the Chicago Premium to a “Chicago
Discount” which is why we haven’t seen prices go up. I estimate this
“discount” to currently be around the 3-7 cents per gallon area.
Wholesale prices, which were up to nearly 1.70, are back down to
1.60, which also has helped prices remain on the down side.

This is a tough call to make because many stations are hovering
around the 15 cent profit margin, which would not yet call for a
hike. Some stations are as low as 2.13, and they are making nothing
or losing money. What to call for? There is a huge spread in prices,
2.13-2.36. We could see a universal reset to 2.25-2.29, but I’m not
100%. I filled up for 2.08 (2.19 plus 5% discount!) at the BP on Port
Sheldon and 28th last night, and I’d suggest finding a cheaper station
and filling ‘er up.

On more of a personal note, after a long weekend including my Olds
brakes going out, having it towed, having it towed to the wrong shop,
and finally 5 hours after being on the phone getting it to the right
place, they said it’d be $1600 to fix it. Its a 91 Cutlass Ciera, not
worthy of fixing with 180,000 miles. Does anyone have a reliable
vehicle or know someone with a reliable vehicle for sale for under
$1500 (preferrably under $750)? I need something for just the winter,
so it’d need heat, and obviously I don’t want to buy a car that needs
work or is close to needing work. I’d really appreciate anyone
helping me out in that matter. Year and mileage don’t matter too

2.12! Wow. Gas Price reset soon?

After logging in to GrandRapidsGasPrices.com this afternoon, I noticed
that local prices fell too fast… seems like that new Family Fare on
Leonard and Fuller really is fueling things (no pun intended). That
corner is the low price leader, with Sunday prices showing 2.12. They
are definitely flirting with losing money, or just breaking even.

Interestingly enough, many stations remain in the 2.30s, but for the
stations that are down in the 2.12-2.19 area, I’ll be expecting a price
reset Monday or Tuesday to about 2.29-2.37.

The Chicago premium should have come down a few cents, but market
prices are still hovering near 1.56 having a up and down week last week.

I’d suggest filling up this afternoon unless you’d rather take the chance of the gas price hike tomorrow or Tuesday

~Patrick

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Thursday Gas Price Update!

Well, the DOE report was pretty rough, and gasoline and oil has been trading up on the news that the U.S. will turn sharply colder and that OPEC may again cut production when it meets in December. Wholesale gasoline is back up to 1.58.

The “Chicago Premium” we’ve been seeing should let local prices go down a bit, as our local storage has gone up after 3 weeks of decline. The midwest is sitting on nearly 52 million barrels of gasoline, down from nearly 55 in the beginning of October, but up from 50 last week. Prices might fall down to 2.29, but I am anticipating another hike possibly next week. Its hard to tell with the Chicago Premium falling and wholesale prices rising. We shouldn’t see a huge drop, but we have room to fall a few cents.

It was interesting that Americans spent $3 billion less on gasoline just last month due to falling prices… and now that money will likely get injected back into the U.S. economy instead of OPEC’s.

Is OPEC getting greedy (talking about further cuts) or is it just me? When their target price was $22-$25 a barrel just years ago, now all of a sudden they aren’t happy with $60? Arrogant.

~Patrick

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