Wednesday 13 Aug 2008 | Posted By
Patrick |
Predictions
Edit: Speedway has just hiked to $3.95 in Michigan; while not totally shocking, this is something that might have been expected. The Gas Game gets quite difficult to predict at times like this!
Another disappointing report from the Dept. of Energy this week, we can look for gasoline to trade higher today.
Perhaps due to the Hurricane/Tropical Storms last week, the DOE reported refinery utilization at just 85.9%, with crude oil inventories falling 400,000 barrels (LOOP was closed [Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform] last week) which likely altered crude import numbers, but gasoline… OUCH! Gasoline inventories fell a massive 6.4 million barrels last week, putting us now in the lower part of the average range, and putting us almost exactly at the same amount of gasoline in inventories as this week in 2007.
In a month we’ve consumed 14.3 million barrels (600.6 million gallons) of gasoline more than were refined. Amazing! Look for that stat to perhaps spook traders as they see some bullish numbers coming in. I definitely expect gasoline to trade higher today, perhaps triggering a hike in the Grand Rapids area… more on that later today IF necessary.
Also, the SPR is STILL adding barrels to its massive storage?! Didn’t the Dept. of Energy state that with oil prices so high they were going to delay deliveries to the SPR in mid-to-late July? It hasn’t happened! This week the SPR sits at 707.2mb, last week 706.8mb and last year at 690.3mb. Just more empty promises from government to do something positive for the market.
Look for gasoline to pull oil higher as traders get some bullish news.
Patrick
PS- Midwest PADD storage fell to 48mb this past week, look for the Chicago Premium to start hurting soon!
Tags: Chicago Premium, DOE, gasoline, Hurricane, inventories, market, oil, PADD, refinery, refinery utilization, report, Speedway, SPR, storage, tropical storm, utilization
Tuesday 12 Aug 2008 | Posted By
Ed Aboufadel |
Commentary
Tuesday, August 12, 2008, 3:45 PM: Didn’t get to check in last week as I was traveling and unable to connect to the Internet. Imagine my surprise, though, upon returning to GR to see that prices haven’t moved much. I got a media call at the end of July asking about this, and at the time, the move in retail did seem in line with the move in wholesale. However, with the price hike last week to $3.89, and with the slow, slow drops since then, we seem to be a price leader in the region, as prices are $3.62 in Fort Wayne, for example. Last year in late summer, NYMEX became a lousy predictor of retail prices, and the same is true this year. Using last summer’s and this summer’s data, I’ve tried this afternoon to cook up a short-term predictor based on a combination of the NYMEX and AXXIS prices. I have no reason to believe why this works right now, but taking 1.25*AXXIS-0.4*NYMEX seems to get us to the right wholesale price. Yes, that doesn’t make any sense. However, using today’s prices, we get a 0-cent margin price of about $3.67. With current prices in the $3.72 to $3.89 range, it is in that grey zone where we could get a price hike because some stations are near the 0-cent margin price, or we could pass, because other stations are still at $3.89. So, no prediction, but if you can buy gas for $3.72, then you should do so.
Tags: AXXIS, DOE, margin, no prediction, NYMEX, prediction, price hike
Sunday 10 Aug 2008 | Posted By
Patrick |
Predictions
I think you’ll agree with me on this one- Diesel consumers have LONG awaited the price drops that gasoline has seen. Since gasoline has dropped mid-July, diesel HAS followed its drop on the wholesale market, BUT for some reason, those price drops really never made it to large chain retailers. Even as I write this, some of the SAME BRANDED stations have diesel prices ranging from $4.39 to a whopping and unreasonable $4.69! Its a rarity for Grand Rapids to see this sort of range for gasoline (Have I ever see gasoline price ranges of 30-cents on non-hike days?) Even this station pictured below had sold diesel for as much as $4.79 just days earlier… what is going on? I’d say there is some gouging here, but hey, the Attorney General’s office of this State seems to turn a blind eye to “gouging” (at least when I called a few weeks ago!)- but WHY? Who has donated money to him?
Diesel continues to trade lower. Stations in nearby Indiana have diesel as cheap as $4.19… the price drops should continue! SHOP AROUND is the best advice I can give you.
Just down the street at BP, take a look what diesel runs!
Tags: Attorney General, bp, diesel, gasoline, gouging, indiana, market, retailer
Friday 08 Aug 2008 | Posted By
Patrick |
Predictions
After negative news coming from Europe on the euro, the dollar posted a large gain, pushing down commodities on a whole, what a terrific end to a week.
As it stands, oil is down $5bbl to $114.96 and gasoline down 12-cents to $2.87! This may push nationwide prices down another 6-8 cents over the next week, and in the midwest, Ohio could get down to the $3.50s again, although in West Michigan, we may get as low as $3.69. Wholesale prices over the weekend should hold in the $3.60s.
The dollar really has had a turnaround vs. the euro this week and is looking impressive again. The dollar had been at 0.63X euros and now is way up to nearly 0.67 euros! Quite a gain.
I’d hold off on filling up. Also, hoarding gasoline at cheaper prices will actually push prices higher in the long run, so make sure not to get too excited.
Patrick
Tags: dollar, euro, gasoline, Ohio, oil, wholesale prices
Sunday 03 Aug 2008 | Posted By
Patrick |
Predictions
After enjoying lower prices for a few weeks, I’m sad to announce I’m expecting a hike to $3.99 around Grand Rapids soon. Perhaps as early as Monday, or they could wait. Prices have been creeping up, we have a tropical storm in the Gulf that’s pushing prices higher (not as much as it could… small storm)
Be sure to fill up soon. I was “lucky” to get gas for (are you going to be upset at me?) $3.64 Saturday in Fremont with the help of a Speedway Credit Card… that may be as low as we see it for sometime now as Hurricane season kicks into high gear.
I can’t believe its August already and I’m still seeing gas prices well over $3.50. Oh well.
Patrick
EDIT: Prices are sliding on the market today. Looks like we will dodge a price hike!
August 4, 2:30pm EDT
EDIT: August 5: Prices didn’t decrease fast enough for Grand Rapids, a price increase is now at 50/50 odds!
Tags: gas prices, Hurricane, market, price hike, Speedway, tropical storm
Friday 01 Aug 2008 | Posted By
Patrick |
Commentary
BP has generally been my station of choice for quite some time, but things have slowly been starting to frustrate me with many of the local BP stations (look at GRGP tonight! ALL the high priced stations are BP! ELEVEN!). For one- while they had been typically running 9-cents more for a higher grade, they now run 11-cents higher. IE- $3.99/$4.10/$4.21 That irritates me to no end. Speedway had adopted the 10-cent rule a few years back after having gone as little as 7-cents higher per grade. So why has BP suddenly decided they need more than 9-cents? I wonder if it has something to do with more and more cars requiring premium fuel, like one of mine.
Next, today BP decides that its going to try its own hike, to an astounding $3.99! What in the heck is going on? I must say the BP at 28th and Wilson is perhaps the only BP around with decent management… they went from $3.85 or $3.88 (can’t remember) to $3.78 late tonight.
Next time I think about going to BP, maybe I’ll elect for a station with better tactics than most the BP’s.
Again, please read- the BP at 28th and Wilson is NOT one of the BP’s I’m referring to. Here is a list:
BP @
Port Sheldon St & 28th Ave
36th St SW & Buchanan Ave
44th & Division
Kalamazoo Ave SE & 60th St SE
10 Mile & US-131
E Division & Wolverine
Plainfield & Woodworth
Fulton & E of Bronson
West River & US-131
Alpine & Coventry
E Division St near Stebbins Ave
Unless these BP stations change their habits, I’d like readers to know what kind of crap these stations are pulling. They are trying to pull a fast one. Even “almighty” Speedway didn’t reset to $3.99! They chose 14-cents LESS per gallon.
Gouging anyone? I’m done with said stations unless they change their practices.
Patrick
Tags: bp, gouging, grade gap, GRGP, premium fuel, Speedway, WOOD
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