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The Spike Line is a feature that has been around a while here at TheGasGame.com. Here we will determine a “Spike Line” based on market forces and help you in figuring when is the right time to buy gas.

We start with the Chicago Spot. This is the base line that stations should be paying before they pay taxes, fees, and other stuff like wages, rent and electricity. Those things are factored in with the Spike Line Adjustment. The Rack Adjustment is the difference between Chicago’s weekly rack number and Indianapolis’s, Detroit’s, or Cleveland’s, depending on your state.

Add those all together, and we get the Spike Line. See how close that is to the average for the day (and I judge it by the SSA, or Speedway SuperAmerica average) And that is the Spike Line Deviation. Too large a deviation, and you should hold off on buying gas. If it is in the negative, buy ASAP, because a spike could be coming.

More information on the formulas used to figure the taxes and fees adjustments can be found below. Click on a picture to the right to see a larger view.

Spike Line Statistics for 9/3/2010 ($USD) Indy, Indiana, Michigan Chicago Spot $2.0270 Change UP $0.0029 USA Average $2.700 ($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio Taxes and Fees $0.6459 $0.6459 $0.6467 $0.5940 Rack Adjustment -$0.0597 -$0.0597 $0.0647 -$0.0072 Spike Line Price $2.6132 $2.6132 $2.7384 $2.6138 SSA Average $2.7342 $2.7338 $2.7908 $2.7297 Average $2.7390 $2.7350 $2.7790 $2.7240 Spike Line Deviation $0.1211 $0.1206 $0.0524 $0.1159 Suggestion HOLD HOLD WATCH HOLD Gas Price Statistics ($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio Low $2.529 $2.489 $2.539 $2.449 High $2.769 $2.809 $2.899 $2.799 Speedway Low $2.559 $2.589 $2.739 $2.559 Speedway High $2.759 $2.799 $2.799 $2.759 Diesel Price Statistics ($USD) Indy, Indiana, Michigan Chicago ULS Diesel $2.1348 Change -$0.0025 ($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio Taxes and Fees $0.8144 $0.8144 $0.8121 $0.6040 Spike Line Price $2.949 $2.949 $2.947 $2.739 SSA Average $2.931 $2.946 $2.989 $2.939 Spike Line Deviation $0.0183 $0.0031 -$0.0421 -$0.1998 SSA Low $2.799 $2.839 $2.849 $2.799 SSA High $2.989 $2.999 $3.159 $2.999

Indy Spike Line Chart Indiana Spike Line Chart Michigan Spike Line Chart Ohio Spike Line Chart Kentucky Spike Line Chart Weekly Speedway price move

Taxes and fees formula for Indianapolis/Indiana

CS + (CS*.07) + ST + FT + IC + CO + FR

CS = Chicago Spot
CS*.07 = Indiana Sales Tax (7%)
ST = State Tax or 18¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
IC = Inspection Charge or 1¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 8¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢

Taxes and fees formula for Michigan

CS + ((FT + CS)*.06) + ST + FT + EC + CO + FR

CS = Chicago Spot
ST = State Tax or 19¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
((CS + FT)*.06) = Michigan Sales Tax on Chicago Spot and Federal Tax
EC = Environmental Charge or 1¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 8¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢

Taxes and fees formula for Ohio

CS + ST + FT + CO + FR

CS = Chicago Spot
ST = State Tax or 28¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 8¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢

Currently I am adding 19.1 cents to the Indy/Indianapolis diesel taxes and fees and 15.9 cents to the Michigan diesel taxes and fees based on how much more taxes are for diesel on the GasBuddy Gas Taxes chart.