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The Spike Line is a feature that has been around a while here at TheGasGame.com. Here we will determine a “Spike Line” based on market forces and help you in figuring when is the right time to buy gas.

We start with the Chicago Spot. This is the base line that stations should be paying before they pay taxes, fees, and other stuff like wages, rent and electricity. Those things are factored in with the Spike Line Adjustment. The Rack Adjustment is the difference between Chicago’s weekly rack number and Indianapolis’s, Detroit’s, or Cleveland’s, depending on your state.

Add those all together, and we get the Spike Line. See how close that is to the average for the day (and I judge it by the SSA, or Speedway SuperAmerica average) And that is the Spike Line Deviation. Too large a deviation, and you should hold off on buying gas. If it is in the negative, buy ASAP, because a spike could be coming.

More information on the formulas used to figure the taxes and fees adjustments can be found below. Click on a picture to the right to see a larger view.

*****New***** I have added more information. I am showing how many Speedway stations are down from the previous week. You can find this at the bottom of the Gas Price Statistics section.

Spike Line Statistics for 2/22/2012 ($USD) Indy, Indiana, Michigan Chicago Spot $2.9027 Change UP $0.0925 USA Average $3.561 ($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio Taxes and Fees $0.7072 $0.7072 $0.6992 $0.5940 Rack Adjustment $0.0213 $0.0213 -$0.0379 $0.1957 Spike Line Price $3.6312 $3.6312 $3.5640 $3.6924 SSA Average $3.5708 $3.5906 $3.6656 $3.6151 Average $3.4940 $3.5420 $3.5730 $3.5560 Spike Line Deviation -$0.1372 -$0.0892 $0.0090 -$0.1364 Suggestion SPIKE SPIKE BUY SPIKE Gas Price Statistics ($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio Low $3.289 $3.279 $3.239 $3.219 High $3.699 $3.719 $3.799 $3.799 Speedway Low $3.379 $3.299 $3.299 $3.269 Speedway High $3.699 $3.759 $3.699 $3.899 Speedway stations up 32 139 265 435 Speedway up % 51.61% 60.70% 91.70% 68.37% Speedway stations higher week ago: 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 0.00% Diesel Price Statistics ($USD) Indy, Indiana, Michigan Chicago ULS Diesel $2.8724 Change $0.0096 ($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio Taxes and Fees $0.8661 $0.8661 $0.8564 $0.6040 Spike Line Price $3.738 $3.738 $3.729 $3.476 SSA Average $3.848 $3.861 $3.959 $3.839 Spike Line Deviation -$0.1098 -$0.1225 -$0.2302 -$0.3628 SSA Low $3.759 $3.759 $3.659 $3.629 SSA High $3.959 $4.199 $3.999 $4.299

Indy Spike Line Chart Indiana Spike Line Chart Michigan Spike Line Chart Ohio Spike Line Chart

Taxes and fees formula for Indianapolis/Indiana

CS + (CS*.07) + ST + FT + IC + CO + FR

CS = Chicago Spot
CS*.07 = Indiana Sales Tax (7%)
ST = State Tax or 18¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
IC = Inspection Charge or 1¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 8¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢

Taxes and fees formula for Michigan

CS + ((FT + CS)*.06) + ST + FT + EC + CO + FR

CS = Chicago Spot
ST = State Tax or 19¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
((CS + FT)*.06) = Michigan Sales Tax on Chicago Spot and Federal Tax
EC = Environmental Charge or 1¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 8¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢

Taxes and fees formula for Ohio

CS + ST + FT + CO + FR

CS = Chicago Spot
ST = State Tax or 28¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 8¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢

Currently I am adding 19.1 cents to the Indy/Indianapolis diesel taxes and fees and 15.9 cents to the Michigan diesel taxes and fees based on how much more taxes are for diesel on the GasBuddy Gas Taxes chart.