The Gas Game » Predictions

Spike Line warning! 1/31/12

Bill Eby — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 22:35:36 +0000

With market prices surging forward, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio are looking ripe for a spike. Last time the Spike Line was this high, prices surged to near $3.70. We may not see the spike until Thursday, the most spiked day in the history of The Gas Game. But be aware it could happen tomorrow.

Spike line warning! 1/25/12

Bill Eby — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 01:01:33 +0000

With some stations going below $3, we are unfortunately seeing an upward push in the markets today. That will cause a spike, most likely tomorrow, historically the most spiked day in TheGasGame history. The spike shouldn’t reach more than $3.35-$3.39, less depending where you are.

This Week’s Game Plan: We Should Be Fine

Ed Aboufadel — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:36:04 +0000

Tuesday, January 24, 2012, 9:30AM: OK, let’s get our game plan set for the rest of the week. Wholesale prices have dropped 36 cents since January 10, and we have been seeing retail prices drifting lower in tandem. That puts us down to around $3.15 before we’ll see a price hike, as long as wholesale prices remain stable. With the low in town being $3.29 in Kentwood, it appears we’ll be OK for the rest of the week. –Ed Aboufadel

Weren’t we $3.69 this afternoon?

Ed Aboufadel — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 23:05:21 +0000

Comment on this morning’s prediction: Here is Grand Rapids, prices jumped to $3.69 today, so I hope you filled up. CORRECT!

Wednesday, January 11, 2012, 6:00PM: OK, things are bizarre today. After the weekly energy report from the Feds, gasoline future prices plunged in Chicago, dropping 13 cents a gallon according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, here in Grand Rapids, prices were soaring to $3.69 a gallon. Driving home from work this evening, the Citgo in Standale is at $3.59 and the Speedway on Lake Michigan Drive is $3.41 (and packed with cars), where it was this morning. I keep an eye on Fort Wayne prices (that’s my hometown), and it looks like there was no hike there at all, so prices are still $3.38. Is this turning into a failed price hike? If I was Speedway, I’d put in a system-wide reset to $3.55 tomorrow and move on. -Ed A.

Weren’t we $2.99 a gallon just 3 weeks ago?

Ed Aboufadel — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 12:33:18 +0000

Wednesday, January 11, 2012, 7:30AM: A belated Happy New Year! I was traveling in Boston last week, and was out of the loop for that stupid hike. I’m posting today because I agree with Bill: I am afraid that another price hike is coming today or tomorrow, as wholesale prices continue to work their way higher (again in line with stock market). Fill up before the price is $3.65 a gallon. –Ed A.

Spike Line alert 01/09/12

Bill Eby — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 23:35:00 +0000

We are seeing prices crossing the spike line again, which means we should see a price increase soon. Tuesday is a traditional day, so it is my guess it will come tomorrow. Fill up before prices go up!

This Week: #NotWinning the Gas Game

Ed Aboufadel — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 13:32:46 +0000

Comment on the December 19 prediction: Pretty much CORRECT. We did see several $2.99′s, and then we had a hike, but it was a bit higher than expected, to $3.39.

Friday, December 39, 2011, 8:30AM: Well, we end the year with a loss in the Gas Game, as I did not expect the hike yesterday to $3.49. Bill called it, though! (Gas was still $3.16 at Costco last night, though — did anyone fill up?) Looking over the last two months of data, it appears to me that Speedway and friends are trying once again to improve their margins. To be specific, using the formulas posted on our site, I compute a 0-cent margin price (which is, in fact, a 10-cent below cost price) and when the retail price gets near or below the 0-cent price, we see a hike that gives us the 20-cent price. In October and November, hikes were improving margins to a 25-cent price, and in December it appears that we rising to a 30-cent price (about 20 cents above cost). We have seen for more than a decade, though, that reaching for a 30-cent price has been a challenge, as it is easier to competitors to undercut the price. This already happened in Standale this morning, and Speedway on Lake Michigan Drive is at $3.46.

Some facts about 2011 prices: The high price that I recorded for the year was $4.29 on May 2. The low was $2.99 on January 5 and again last week. So, we ended the year about where we started — just like the stock market (surprise, surprise!). Oil per barrel topped out at $114 at the end of April, and got down to $75 at the beginning of October.

Happy New Year!

Spike line warning! 12/27/11

Bill Eby — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 23:02:36 +0000

With prices falling below the spike line in Indy, Indiana and Michigan, I am predicting a spike up in prices soon. Thursday is a traditional day for this, and it may hold off until then. But the possibility is there for prices to start going up tomorrow. Expect Indiana and Michigan to go up to $3.35-3.39 and Ohio to go up to $2.29-3.35.

2-9-9-9 plan is on, and then we’ll probably get a hike for Christmas

Ed Aboufadel — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 22:04:39 +0000

Monday, December 19, 2011, 5:00PM: Stocks, oil, gold, etc. have all fallen considerably the past week or so, which is why gas prices keep slipping lower, and we haven’t had a hike. GrandRapidsGasBuddy reports a $2.99 in Caledonia, and I predict that we’ll see that number in a lot of places in the next 48 hours, followed by a Christmas present price reset Wednesday or Thursday, to somewhere between $3.19 and $3.29. This is usually the time of year when gas prices are the lowest. –Ed Aboufadel

Oil up, gasoline down, diesel up

Ed Aboufadel — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 00:34:21 +0000

Comment on the November 11 prediction: Not too hard to predict that prices will drop over the weekend. They stayed above $3.40 in a lot of places, though, so I am going to score this as 1/2 CORRECT, 1/2 WRONG.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011, 7:40PM: How is the rest of this week going to play out? You may be hearing that oil prices are soaring (now over $100 a barrel), but wholesale gas prices have been steady this week after dropping a lot last week, apparently due to weak demand. We need to get down to $3.15 or so before there is a hike, so I predict that we will be safe until at least Monday. Diesel, on the other hand, continues to rise, due to shortages in the Midwest. This link from GasBuddy explains why. –Ed Aboufadel