Seasons Greetings and Merry Christmas (albeit a bit early)!
Figured that with all the holiday traveling bound to happen this weekend, I would keep you updated on what to expect! =)
At the time I’m writing this (4:30pm EST) gasoline markets have “closed” down about 3 cents. We’re down to $1.65 per gallon for wholesale gasoline, which is better than the $1.72 we saw earlier this week. The Dept. of Energy report Wednesday on stockpiles wasn’t so great. Crude oil stockpiles dropped big. 6 million barrels to be exact. However, gasoline stockpiles got a 1 million barrel boost. Refiners are back at it, utilizing 90%+ of their usable capacity (down from a peak of around 93% in summer, but better than 87% during maintenance). After all, they should be trying to all out produce until Jan. 1 to drive down their inventories for tax purposes.
As for the “Chicago Discount” we’ve been seeing, you can expect that to continue for just a bit longer, as the Midwest PADD District gained in storage (from 51.2 to 51.8 million barrels) making the “high storage” discount roughly 2-3 cents per gallon. However, I expect after the holidays that discount to dry up as many in the Midwest travel the clean, dry roads this year (increasing local demand and driving down stockpiles)
I expect by the New Year we’ll see gasoline down to about 2.25-2.29, but I’ll keep you updated. For sure it looks like prices should be soon arriving at 2.25-2.33 at many locations.
A few more notes; you can put me down as saying that OPEC’s actions this month and last (by cutting oil supplies) could really hurt us come Spring and Summer. I also find it frustrating that when oil recently dropped below OPEC’s weighted average of $60, some OPEC countries were saying that they couldn’t survive. Rediculous. Just a few years ago they were happy with $22-$28. Just like many in corporate America, OPEC is getting greedy. Oh well.
P.S.- I’d like to welcome notable radio personality Gary Allen (WOOD 1300) to the mailing list. I am hoping that perhaps with his help, we can get a few more people to sign up or read The Gas Game and become more aware on how to save money!
Be sure to drive safe this holiday!
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Well, the DOE report was pretty rough, and gasoline and oil has been trading up on the news that the U.S. will turn sharply colder and that OPEC may again cut production when it meets in December. Wholesale gasoline is back up to 1.58.
The “Chicago Premium” we’ve been seeing should let local prices go down a bit, as our local storage has gone up after 3 weeks of decline. The midwest is sitting on nearly 52 million barrels of gasoline, down from nearly 55 in the beginning of October, but up from 50 last week. Prices might fall down to 2.29, but I am anticipating another hike possibly next week. Its hard to tell with the Chicago Premium falling and wholesale prices rising. We shouldn’t see a huge drop, but we have room to fall a few cents.
It was interesting that Americans spent $3 billion less on gasoline just last month due to falling prices… and now that money will likely get injected back into the U.S. economy instead of OPEC’s.
Is OPEC getting greedy (talking about further cuts) or is it just me? When their target price was $22-$25 a barrel just years ago, now all of a sudden they aren’t happy with $60? Arrogant.
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Quick gas price update.
We saw a huge drop on the wholesale market today (9 cents) to 1.50 wholesale. I’ll be looking for low $2’s soon. If we see a few more cent price drops on the market… guess what… $1.XX MAY indeed happen.
So, there shouldn’t be a hike any time soon… keep on truckin!
Just FYI for everyone- I will be posting many more comments on The Gas Game website, www.thegasgame.com. If you’d like to learn about pricing, head there and read semi-daily comments from Ed and I. I will keep this e-mail going as a notice to big events related to gas prices.
I haven’t let you know whats going on (well, we haven’t had a risk of a price hike, and I believe we still don’t)
Just thought with today’s DOE report, I’d let you know how things are looking.
The DOE report was much better than traders or I thought it would be (Labor Day didn’t kill inventories), so here is the good news:
** Refineries operated at 93.6% of capacity–> thats the highest number I’ve seen all summer.
** Gasoline stockpiles increased by 700,000 barrels. Traders were looking for a DROP of 400,000.
** Distillate stockpiles (heating oil, diesel) increased by 3.1 million barrels. THAT IS HUGE! Look for diesel to come down a few cents due to that.
** Crude oil inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels, but thats to be expected when you refine at 93.6% of capacity. We are still “WELL ABOVE” the average range for oil, so thats no big deal.
If this hurricane season stays quiet and–AND— if we see Iran calm down or MAKE A DEAL with the U.S. there is no reason that I can rule out $1.XX gasoline in the near future. HOWEVER, with Iran being so hard to work with, I don’t expect a easy solution to that.
Anyway, I’m looking for the gasoline futures to have a sell-off today, as a result ofÂ 1. MUCH less active hurricane season 2. No immediate Iran problem 3. VERY HIGH inventories
We could see 2.25-2.29 by early next week if we see a nice selloff today
NYMEX is open right now, until later this evening, when a HALT will be implemented.
Gasoline futures are down to 1.70 at this moment, which, at least in the spring of 05, brought us a retail gas hike to 2.43. (I was interviewed when this happened in Spring 05, and in the interview, my computer screen says wholesale prices were 171.50, and the gas hike had just happened to 2.43)
I’m not too sure we’ve seen the bottom of prices. I’d be hard pressed to see a rise early this week, but we don’t have much more to fall. Looking for 2.35-2.39 if NYMEX holds until tomorrow. However, later in the week we *could* see a rise.
It is noteworthy that its getting harder to predict prices with this kind of market.
Not to forget about newly formed tropical depression six, and Labor Day higher demand.
Prices could jump later in the week, but I’d like to think we’re safe a couple more days.
Can you believe that gas is “only” 2.28 in Findlay, Ohio? Thats the
lowest price in the United States at this time, and its only a few
hundred miles away.
Prices on the wholesale market fell quite a bit the past few days,
but you don’t see local stations following suit… we’re still
“stuck” at 2.54. We should be near 2.45-2.49, but for some reason the
gas stations are holding onto assured profit. Some station needs to
step up and lower their prices.
I don’t see a hike coming any time soon, but Iran could force
wholesale prices higher.
The DOE report today was also excellent. Crude oil inventories built
(suprisingly), as did gasoline (suprise again!) AND diesel/heating
oil inventories climbed, ALL unexpectedly…
Why aren’t prices falling? A good question- they ought to.
I don’t see prices going higher for Labor Day at this point, but
remember, Iran could change that, and FAST.