Category: Commentary

Missed Hikes in May Suggest A Grab For Higher Profits

Comment the April 30 prediction and May action:  Although the original prediction was CORRECT, we have had two price resets on the 10th and the 18th that I have completely missed, hence WRONG.

May 20, 2017, 5:00PM:  Suddenly, our game strategy isn’t working.  The price hikes in May have both come with retail prices at least 15 cents away from where I would predict a hike was coming.  The first hike was rather mild — 9 cents in Michigan on the 10th.  The second one this week was a more intense — 17 cents.  Based on the new prices, it looks like Big Red and his friends are trying to move the window to better margins.  Maybe this will work this time, but in past years, ye old Gas Game kicks back in after a while.  Nevertheless, we’ll have to be more alert this summer and a bit quicker to fill up.  Of course, that’s just what they want. — Ed A.

Game Plan For Cinco De Mayo

Comment on March 27 and April:  The March 27 prediction was CORRECT, as we got a price hike.  I’ve been quiet during April, missing two price hikes.  For the second one on April 19, margins seemed high enough that we would avoid a hike.  But score me WRONG.

April 30, 2017, 12 Noon:  I’m not sure what that hike was about on April 19, but since then, wholesale prices have slipped by a dime.  As of today, we aren’t even close to price hike territory, with Michigan prices in the $2.40’s.  So, don’t be in a rush to fill up this week, unless you need to. -EA

March to leave like a lion?

Comment on the March 21 prediction:  No hike in a week, so CORRECT.

Monday, March 27, 2017, 7:30PM:  I’ll keep this short: uh, oh.  A bad report from Chicago tonight on CBOB prices, so we are set for a price hike on Tuesday.  $2.49 in Michigan?  -EA

You Know You Want To Go Lower, Mr. Gas Price

Comment on the March 11 prediction:  Prices did fall for a few days, and the situation apparently was different on Thursday morning, as we saw a reset, which didn’t fit my calculations.  So, I am going to say WRONG.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017, 3:30PM:  Prices want to go lower, but they are taking their sweet time.  There’s a lot of $2.26’s around today, and if today’s wholesale drop of 5 cent holds, we are looking at a 0-margin price of $2.13, if I’m doing things right, so we have room to fall.  It is hard to say at this time of year, as we switch to “summer gas”.  Nevertheless, I’m going with the prediction that we won’t see a hike for the rest of the week. -EA

Oil Prices Dropping, Gas Should Be Next

Comment on the February 26 prediction:  Prices rose in Michigan to $2.55 on the 28th, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Saturday, March 11, 2017, 8:00AM:  I am not smart enough to know why oil prices dropped 10% in the past week, but that does mean that we will be seeing lower gas prices this coming week.  Don’t be in a rush to fill up, as we should see prices drop below $2.20 in the next few days.  That usually happens first in Lowell and/or near 44th Street in GR.  The situation may look different Thursday morning, though. -EA

March To Come In Like A Lion?

Comment on the February 8 prediction:  That’s exactly what happened, so CORRECT.  Was not engaged when we got the reset to $2.39 again on President’s Day.

Sunday, February 26, 2016, 7:30PM:  There are two signs that we’ll see some gas price fireworks this week.  First, despite the jump last Monday, many stations in the Grand Rapids are have already given most of it back, while wholesale prices were flat last week.  Second, I find these future month quotes for RBOB worrisome, hinting at higher prices in March.  Either way, I would fill up on Monday if I could. -EA

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