Category: Commentary

It’s Crazy in Chicago Right Now

Comment on the October 29 prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, as prices rose to $2.69 on Monday.

Wednesday, November 1, 2017, 9:30PM: Wholesale prices in the Midwest are a runaway train this week, and we’ve already seen a jump in Indiana today. Michigan should see prices rise on Thursday, somewhere in the $2.79-$2.99 range. What is going on? A huuuge growing mess of shortages, according to Reuters, and no obvious relief in site. Fill up again! -EA

Gas Prices: Spooky Halloween Witchcraft

Comment on the October 24 prediction: A weird WRONG as gas prices did not jump in Michigan. More in the new prediction …

Sunday, October 29, 2017, 6:00PM: Regular readers know that along with my commentary on west Michigan gas prices, I keep an eye on Fort Wayne, Indiana prices, since that is where I graduated from high school. Typically, when prices jump in Michigan, it is a day or two later that a similar hike occurs in Fort Wayne. So, I was rather puzzled that my prediction last Tuesday worked for the Hoosier state, with prices rising there to $2.69, while a similar hike did not occur in Michigan. Adding to the puzzlement is that oil prices continued their slow-but-steady climb the past week, and we have a report on Friday of “a sustained gasoline supply shortage in the Midwest”. With my spreadsheet screaming that we are in price-hike territory still, what else can I say except fill up Monday morning and expect something like $2.75. -EA

What a Month: Stocks Up, Oil Up, Gas Up, Time to Fill Up!

Comment on the September 21 prediction: Nah, we didn’t get a hike until the following week, so WRONG.

Tuesday, October 24, 2017, 9:30PM: Wow, it has been a month since my last posting. I guess I have been busy. So has energy prices, with oil up more than 5% in a month, and gas prices have followed. With the latest rally for Chicago gas today, perhaps motivated by the latest in the blow-off stock rally, we are back in price hike territory already, with a hike probable for Wednesday or Thursday. Looks like $2.69 or $2.75, depending on Big Red’s mood when he gets out of bed. -EA

Anticipating Shenanigans on Friday or Saturday

Comment on the September 13 prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, with prices in the $2.20’s this week.

Thursday, September 21, 2017, 9:30PM: The headline late this afternoon screams, “Chicago Spot Gasoline Soars on Aggressive Refiner Buying”. Soar might be too strong a word, but wholesale prices are up tonight, enough that we are in danger of a price reset on Friday or Saturday. Low prices in places like Jenison will tempt Big Red. I advise filling up Friday morning, predicting a reset in the neighborhood of $2.59. -EA

Harvey, Irma, Joel, Katia, and now Lower

Comment on the August 31 prediction: The hike didn’t kick in until after Labor Day, but it was $2.79! 25% CORRECT?

Wednesday, September 13, 2017, 8:30PM: I’ve been waiting for markets to settle down post-hurricanes for this latest post. As horrific the damage from Harvey and Irma, it could have been worse, and our gasoline infrastructure appears intact. So, wholesale prices have been working their way lower, and at some point soon, retail prices should follow. In the Grand Rapids area, look around for under $2.50, which you will find in Wyoming, and I think we could possibly see $2.29 somewhere by Monday morning. -EA

Another Hike This Week?

Comment on Monday’s prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, as prices rose Tuesday, but I think they pulled their punches with $2.65.

Thursday, August 31, 2017, 4:30PM: The severe flooding in Houston is creating supply shortages in the gasoline market. That, combined with end-of-month contract expiration shenanigans, has led to a big spike in NYMEX prices today, and I am waiting for end-of-day information from Chicago, but at lunchtime, CBOB and RBOB were up several cents. Maybe they’ll surprise me and keep prices at bay through the holiday weekend, but I doubt it, and I predict another hike on Friday or Saturday. $2.79? Higher? -EA (c) 2017 Frontier Theme