Sometimes they overreact, and we have to pay for it

Comment on the February 2 prediction: Prices continued to fall that week, although I don’t think we got to $1.99. Basically CORRECT. Then we say a pair of hikes the past two weeks.

Sunday, February 23, 2020, 2PM: Prices rose to $2.55 in Michigan last Tuesday (February 18), but that hike seemed fishy. Yes, markets were suggesting over the President’s Day weekend that higher energy prices were in the works, but not with the vigor that justified a hike. It felt like someone at Speedway was overreacting, and given that we are already back in the $2.30’s around west Michigan, it does seem like it was a premature push of the button.

So, where are we today? I am estimating the 0-margin price in the mid $2.30’s, and this is supposed to be the time of year where retail prices are more buoyant. I’m expecting a price reset this week, in the $2.49-$2.55 range, but probably not on Monday.

Speaking of Speedway, are they for sale? That might shake up the Gas Game! -EA

Updated: February 23, 2020 — 2:08 pm

13 Comments

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  1. If Big Red does pull the trigger this week, any spike should be short lived thanks to oil dropping nicely once again

  2. Oil and RBOB fell off a cliff today. Not seeing a spike any time soon.

  3. hovering in 2.35-2.50 range in most NW ohio area- but did score a 2.15 over the weekend travelling down 1-71 from Mansfield towards Columbus.

  4. Looks like a $2.79/2.89 hike is underway to start the day. Up 50c for one nearby Speedway. A mild surprise after spot fell more than Speedway’s average price fell on a Monday that had no hike. The hike price matches their usual target margin, but this hike, like last week came in with margins not nearly as bad as Speedway tolerated for days on end in December and November. So again, seem to be back to flattening the bottom of the price curve 🙁

  5. Jim – wasn’t there some refinery fires around the country in the last few week? Sure they are using that for an excuse to stick it to us.

  6. Oil and products down again today…..Someone’s making some nice margins

  7. Actually it was pretty clever of Speedway to sneak in a hike to the highest price since last fall in the middle of a 20c one week drop in spot.

  8. Apparently the Wednesday evening presser was not enough to calm fears about Covid-19. Crude is down around another 3% and stocks down over 120 points leading up to the opening bell this morning.

    Filled up North of Cincinnati for $2.099 at Sharonville UDF with the 3 cent discount and would have done even better had I looked around more.

  9. Oil at $47 n’ some change and our gas still at $2.35. Big Red is in charge lol

  10. NW ohio update..oil/spot etc down 15% this week
    pump price 2.359 monday and not moved even a penny since….

  11. With the beating my 401(k) has taken this week, the least they could do is lower gas prices. LOL.

  12. Looks like we in Chicagoland were the only ones to get a hike this week, to the highest price since fall, in the midst of a 31c/9 day drop in spot. To add insult to injury, the rollbacks are coming slower after this hike then after the last several. Grrr.

  13. I bet Big Red is ready to crank it up this week with oil skyrocketing today

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