Oil Catches A Bad Cold

Comment on the January 23 prediction: It was WRONG. Prices rose, but not until the following week, and only to $2.49

Sunday, February 2, 2020, 5PM: Energy stocks (tracked by the XLE fund) did not have a great 2019, when the market as a whole had a banner year. So, many market pundits, anticipating a roaring economy in 2020, thought it was time for oil to soar. Instead, oil was down more than 15% in January, and the culprit appears to be the coronavirus. Given the effects in China, will the virus bring on a worldwide recession? Oil traders seem to think so, and that is keeping gas prices low. With the Midwestern hike late last week, retail margins are solid right now, so there is no price hike on the horizon. Rather, I expect prices to dip into the $2.10’s and maybe lower. $1.99 anyone? -EA

Updated: February 2, 2020 — 4:38 pm

23 Comments

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  1. given the current ‘spike’ price in Ohio a few stations are only a few cents over that today in NW Ohio..and some even below. That being said still plenty of 2.50 plus prices around so maybe just some local competition. Watching carefully and topping up at half at tank still just in case

  2. Might have to drive 15 minutes to Oxford, Ohio, and fill up for $1.569 tonight.

  3. Been in spike territory for several days in Chicagoland. But unlike last summer when Speedway seemed to be rounding off the bottom of the price curve with premature hikes, the reverse is now true with deep troughs that bottom out well below the expected spike price. Offers some great buying opportunities.

  4. South Bend IN – Speedway spike to $2.39 underway in last 1.5hrs. Speedway by ND went down to 2.18 today, now $2.39. Time to visit Costco for $2.09. SBN avg $2.233.

    Niles MI a few miles N no change yet. $2.09-$2.29 still with the Speedway @ $2.10.

  5. Indy area speedway led spike to 2.39 yesterday.

  6. WAY overdue, Speedway appears to be rolling out a $2.659 hike in Chicagoland on Friday evening. Almost all the hikes here recently have been in the evening or overnight.

  7. Well, that Friday night hike was only at 15-20 stations out of 100+ as it turns out. And it stuck, but never spread to the rest of Speedways, half of whom are under $2.30.

  8. Late night increase last night in Northwest Indiana. 2.49 lead by Family Express (as usual)

  9. Welp, another failed Speedway spike in Ohio. $1.989 last night.

  10. The rate of new coronavirus infections is slowing in China per report. Looks like the markets took the news and ran. Crude up around 2.5% so far today. Hope Greedway isn’t getting itchy.

  11. Greedway leading the way to $2.499 in Ohio. Last week’s $2.399 didn’t work, so I guess they’re trying for more.

  12. Indy area hike to $2.559

  13. South Bend IN – Speedway spike to $2.55 underway, +.30 by ND.
    SBN avg $2.265, Costco $2.11.
    No change just to the North in Niles MI just yet.

  14. Filled up for $2.099 at the local GREEDway on the way home from work—and they spiked ’em during dinner!! $2.499 in Toledo!

    A minor fire at an ExxonMobil refinery—let’s sock it to them.

    If Marathon Petroleum actually divests itself of the GREEDway brand, I wonder if they will continue to lead the way with price volatility in the Midwest and wherever else they have a majority presence?

  15. $2.75/2.85 rolling out across Chicagoland in a hike surprising on two counts: 1) It is occurring during daylight and 2) It is occurring at margins 10-15c better than those that triggered the last several hikes.

  16. It looks like Big Red has made the jump from $2.16 to $2.49 in east Ann Arbor/west Ypsilanti. So far there aren’t any other takers.

  17. $2.599 in Ohio today.
    Two weeks ago $2.399 – FAIL
    Last week – $2.499 – FAIL
    This week – $2.599 – I wonder what will happen.

  18. 2.59 increase in Northwest Indiana started by Family Express

  19. Yep Greedway just west of Kzoo went to 2.55 yesterday. So far others have not joined.

  20. Paid $2.159 at Thorntons this morning. Greedway can kiss it.

  21. Looks like the coronavirus worries have calmed and oil is up, up and away. Not sure when the summer blend switchover is, but looks like a bee line for $3 dollar a gallon gas soon

  22. 2 days post-reset, many stations in east Ann Arbor/west Ypsi have come down a dime from $2.49 although one is down to $2.27.

  23. Another failed spike in sw Ohio. $2.599 did not hold. Tons of stations in the $2.20’s.

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