Comment on the September 22 prediction: WRONG, as we didn’t get the hike until a week later.
Monday, October 14, 2019, 10AM: One of the foundational aspects of winning The Gas Game is to have a good estimate of wholesale gas prices, and that has been a real challenge the last few months. We use the DTN MarketWire, where it is freely-available, to get a Chicago CBOB and/or RBOB end-of-day-quote, but as you can see if you click on news links on this page, those articles are often delayed 1-5 days. In addition, the DTN writers have started ignoring Chicago, instead reporting on rack rates in cities like Pittsburgh. And at the same time, Speedway has stopped posting prices on their site.
Taking this data situation into account, we are have to go Old School. When The Gas Game was started many years ago, I used the New York NYMEX RBOB quote to start my calculation, and that quote is available everywhere, including on our site. That led to miscalculations from time-to-time, when New York and Chicago didn’t add up, due to refinery fires, squirrels, and other issues. But, for now, we are back to using NYMEX, adjusted a bit by a CBOB vs RBOB quote and a weekly rack rate snapshot. This will also affect the Spike Line that Craig maintains.
So, what about this week? Based on Friday’s closing prices, it looks like a hike would be triggered as we near $2.45 a gallon. We are below that price in some places in the Grand Rapids area (e.g. Alpine Avenue), so I smell a hike on the way this week, maybe as soon as today. Fill up! -EA
South Bend IN – Speedway spike to $2.69, was $2.47 by ND. SBN avg was $2.50. Costco $2.40.
Niles MI – No movement yet. Niles WMT at $2.39 & Speedway at $2.40.
Prices rising in the east Ann Arbor/west Ypsilanti area to $2.75. Filled up at $2.27 this a.m. after reading your post today, Ed.
Indy area spiked to 2.699 this morning.
Gas up and Oil down 2%…the oldest trick in the book. Nothing but a blip in prices though lol
Yeah 2.75 in Kazoo area
The last dozen or so spikes have gone SO well….
Spiked to $2.759 last week. Got gas for $2.369 Saturday and $2.269 Sunday night.
Ohio – 47 cents over the spike line now….
8c drop in wholesale the last 2 days here in Chicagoland so we’ve avoided a hike this week . Last one was just a week ago
Chicago RFG rack/wholesale down 18c Monday>>Today
Gotta love these epic spike failures. Filled up for $2.319 yesterday morning. Helps when there is only ONE Speedway, among the TWELVE stations within a 2 mile radius of me.
Same station is now $2.189.
back to $2.69/2.79 today in Chicagoland though that is 20c below the previous hike.
The one GREEDway near me has been at $2.499 for the past few WEEKS! But the tide may be turning in the wrong direction—the local news is reporting about falling gas prices, which seems to be a code for “better fill up, GREEDway needs more $$$!!!”
Our Chicago spike seems to have flopped probably due to a large drop in spot Thursday night. But it rose by more than that drop on Friday….meaning we would see another this week.