Comment on the September 22 prediction: WRONG, as we didn’t get the hike until a week later.
Monday, October 14, 2019, 10AM: One of the foundational aspects of winning The Gas Game is to have a good estimate of wholesale gas prices, and that has been a real challenge the last few months. We use the DTN MarketWire, where it is freely-available, to get a Chicago CBOB and/or RBOB end-of-day-quote, but as you can see if you click on news links on this page, those articles are often delayed 1-5 days. In addition, the DTN writers have started ignoring Chicago, instead reporting on rack rates in cities like Pittsburgh. And at the same time, Speedway has stopped posting prices on their site.
Taking this data situation into account, we are have to go Old School. When The Gas Game was started many years ago, I used the New York NYMEX RBOB quote to start my calculation, and that quote is available everywhere, including on our site. That led to miscalculations from time-to-time, when New York and Chicago didn’t add up, due to refinery fires, squirrels, and other issues. But, for now, we are back to using NYMEX, adjusted a bit by a CBOB vs RBOB quote and a weekly rack rate snapshot. This will also affect the Spike Line that Craig maintains.
So, what about this week? Based on Friday’s closing prices, it looks like a hike would be triggered as we near $2.45 a gallon. We are below that price in some places in the Grand Rapids area (e.g. Alpine Avenue), so I smell a hike on the way this week, maybe as soon as today. Fill up! -EA