Comment on the September 14 prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, although the attack on the Saudi oil led to $2.79 instead of $2.69.
Sunday, September 22, 2019, 3PM: A lot of cross-currents right now when it comes to predicting gas prices. We have new, growing tensions in the Middle East. Recall from more than a decade ago how war there led to $4 gas. On the other hand, we are at the end of the summer, which historically is a time for retail prices to drop, now until Christmas. Put it together, and despite the hike to $2.79 a week ago, we are still hovering around $2.69 in most places. Based on Friday’s market, prices could drop to around $2.55 until we get another hike. Best guess right now is that prices drop slowly until Wednesday or Thursday, and then there is a reset. -EA
Saturday, September 14, 2019, Noon: Busy times at GVSU with our new president, so I have been slow to post to this site. Also, wholesale prices have been tame the past month, with the only surprise to me being the hike after Labor Day. I have a note that pops up for me every year at the beginning of September warning me to be careful about predicting hikes, because Big Red and their friends tend to have a gasoline clearance sale in September, anticipating the end of the summer gasoline blending season.
So, other than the hike on September 3, retail prices have been tame, while wholesale prices have worked their way lower. Consequently, we have prices as low as $2.22 today in Cedar Springs, and rumors of $1.99 farther away. I see $2.39 in Ada today. Given all that, and looking at wholesale numbers, we are setting up for a price reset this coming week, maybe back to $2.69. -EA