Blizzard Will Keep Prices Stable

Comment on the December 29 posting and most of January: We had hikes in Michigan on January 2, 9, and 22, each one a bit higher than before. So, the posting was basically CORRECT.

Monday, January 28, 2019, 11AM: A very snowy Monday in West Michigan, and I have a chance to get caught up on my Gas Game analysis after a brief hiatus. Since the first of the year, energy prices have rallied, following the stock market, and I expect these two will continue in tandem. This morning, for instance, both stocks and oil are down. My estimate of the 0-cent margin price this morning is $2.05, and in most places we are well above that, which suggests retail prices will continue to fall slowly. However, we have a gas war on W River Drive in Comstock Park. $1.86?! I’m going to consider that a weird outlier and stick with a prediction of no hike this week, except maybe in Comstock Park. -EA

Updated: January 28, 2019 — 10:44 am

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  1. Didn’t stop the expected hike to $2.29 here in Chicagoland. Before the hike, Speedways in Chicagoland had an averaged price of $1.989 which was lower than before the last few hikes.

  2. All prices SE of Ann Arbor are in the $1.85 to $1.88 range. Costco/Sam’s show at $1.82.

  3. South Bend IN – avg is $2.13 here. Speedway by ND at $2.09. Costco & 1 WMT at $1.96. Niles MI ~ $2.13 also

  4. The cheapest prices in the Indianapolis area are right down the street from me in Fishers:

    $1.889!

  5. Ran across this today. In a nutshell, Saudi shipments to U.S. are expected to fall by over 50% in Feb. Due to maintenance at U.S. refineries crude storage will build so increases in prices won’t begin to rise until March/April resulting in $80/bbl in Brent throughout 2019. A tweet by a Saudi official said “it is not rewarding us to export a lot of oil to the U.S.”
    –Saudi Arabia is serious about higher oil prices.
    Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, today said that the majority of the export cut will be targeted at the US.
    –The Saudis are also going back to the old oil policy of targeting oil storage under the 5-year average — which, of course, went unnoticed by the market.
    –Our more refined data suggests US imports from Saudi Arabia/Iraq will drop materially in February, but due to refinery maintenance season, US crude storage will build a total of ~18 mbbls in February.
    –Near-term headwinds from falling refinery margins will pressure oil prices until March, but we see an oil uptrend after that. The Saudi incentive tells us oil prices will be much higher by year-end.

  6. Looks like SW Ohio is headed back up to $2.299 lead by UDF.

  7. Speedway spike in Indy to $2.199, and $2.299 in Indy N/W suburbs.

  8. $2.25 spike in Ohio. Sw Ohio to $2.299, as is customary.

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