A Remarkable Fourth Quarter For Energy

Comment on the December 17 posting: CORRECT that prices kept sliding, down in the $1.80’s in certain parts of west Michigan.

Saturday, December 29, 2018, 4:00PM: Let’s be clear about what has happened this fall. On October 1, oil was $75 a barrel and today it is $45. This has led to retail gas prices moving from over $3 a gallon to under $2. This is remarkable! Looking at the new year, because retail prices are all over the place, and we’ve seen a slight rebound in wholesale prices, I suspect Speedway and friends will do a system-wide reset, but we’re only talking something like $2.19 or $2.29. Then, if seasonal trends hold, prices should start moving higher during the first half of 2019 … but I wouldn’t count on it. Happy New Year, everyone! -EA

Updated: December 29, 2018 — 4:14 pm


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  1. Speedways stations in this market are down to a $2.00 average price, so expecting a reset in the next day or two. I think it will be hard to buck historic trends and not start the seasonal climb very shortly.

  2. Prices spiking in Ohio.

  3. Spiking to 2.199 in Indy area.

  4. South Bend IN – Speedway spiking to $2.19 they were 1.95. SBN avg 1.98. Costco $1.89, next county over has some 1.87s. No change a few miles north in Niles MI just yet at 1.99.
    Happy New Year

  5. $2.199 in the suburbs of Chicago. That will be a 56c rise for at least one Speedway.

  6. Actually to avoid the bad optics of a 56 cent hike, the Speedways that were $1.61-1.63 have taken an interim step to just $1.99. lol

  7. No increase in NW Indiana so far.

  8. Jumped to 2.15 in Kalamazoo area

  9. Niles MI now going to $2.19

  10. The indy spike was short-lived and most speedway didn’t take part. Interesting.

  11. Speedway’s average in Chicagoland is $2.009, same as a week ago but estimated wholesale is a nickel higher. So we should see our 2nd straight weekly hike, higher than the last one. Welcome to normal mid-winter price behavior.

  12. Ohio spiking to $2.199.

  13. Greedway just went to 2.25 west of Kazoo

  14. Spiking to $2.259 in Indy area.

  15. WTI crude is up $10 bucks a barrel since Christmas Eve. Looks like this is the end of the line for sub $2 dollar gas. Nice while it lasted!

  16. Price rising to $2.15 +/-.10 in the SE Ann Arbor area lead by Speedway, Meijer, Kroger. Costco @ $1.81 and Sam’s @ $1.80.

  17. South Bend IN – After last weeks spike of from $1.95 to 2.19 they dropped down to $2.05 this morning and now up to $2.25 tonight by ND. Costco at $1.91. No gas station at the Sam’s here.

  18. Sam’s and Costco around her typically retail for right around the Spike Line, which was $1.86 5 days ago. I expect they’ll nudge up some soon.

  19. The OH Spike Line as seemingly moved upward so that it’s closer to MI’s. Was there a new tax added in 2019?

  20. Most of the stations that spiked to $2.15 two days ago are at $1.88 now.

  21. South Bend IN – only down $0.06 so far here to $2.19

  22. In the Greater Cincinnati area, If you can’t find a station that sells gas for less than $2, you really aren’t looking hard.

    I topped two of our three vehicles Sunday at $1.899. The third one is already full. I’m fully expecting a PITuesday from the looks of it/

  23. Expecting a 4.6c jump in NYMEX futures will push Speedway to a $2.25 or $2.29 hike in Chicagoland tomorrow. Unless SPOT dropped for some reason.

  24. Thank you Jim Kaplan for you comments. You’ve been “spot on” lately.

  25. Odd to see hikes come MORE quickly over here than in IN/OH/MI. Ours came on schedule yesterday.

  26. South Bend IN – After spikes on Jan 2 & 9 there was no spike last week but it’s going up now to $2.33-$2.35. Speedway by ND was down to $1.88 to tie Costco. SBN avg was $2.000.

    Just to the north in Niles MI Speedway & Shell at $2.35 also. Niles WMT $1.89.

  27. Looks like we’re headed to $2.29 SE of Ann Arbor.

  28. 2.29 Kazoo area

  29. 2.199-25.59 NW Ohio area

  30. 2.299 in sw Ohio. I thought they dropped the extra RVP requirement. Why is Cincy still going higher than the rest of the state? Even Dayton, which used to go with Cincy, is now back to the state-wide spike price.

  31. 3 days after the spike and Big Red is back to $1.89. The local Circle K never budged off its price, $1.88. Sam’s/Costco @ $1.85.

  32. Well, Meijer never budged off of $2.27 so the Kroger and Speedway down the street shot back up to match prices as did the nearby Speedway.

  33. Another failed spike in sw Ohio. If you can’t find gas under $2, you’re not trying very hard. Paid $1.879 Saturday morning.

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