Recession Coming, or Just Boredom

Comment on the November 25 posting: The reset came on December 4, to $2.39, as we didn’t have any upside in energy until then.

Monday, December 17, Noon: There has been a lack of drama in the energy markets this month, and hence a lack of posting to this site. Today, oil is back to $50 a barrel, which has served as support lately. Short term, it is hard to make a case for a price reset, and we’ll probably see $1.999 again somewhere in western Michigan this week. Longer term, December has been the time of year where prices bottom out, due to more supply and less demand, so, we should probably see higher prices in January. On the other hand, 20+% collapse of oil prices this fall, and the weak stock market, are signs that a recession is starting, which would continue to keep gas prices down. But, you know what they say: “The old joke is that the stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.” -EA

Updated: December 17, 2018 — 11:51 am

17 Comments

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  1. Has today was $1.93 for me in Fort Wayne. It’s been a while. I’m enjoying it for now.

  2. I wonder if Michigan is going up tomorrow considering Indiana, Ohio & Chicago went up today.

  3. mini spike to 2.259 parts NW ohio..just as the 1.99 was reached

    wonder if this one will stick- last one did not

  4. Some (not all) of Indy up to 2.29 yesterday afternoon. Now this morning, many of those are going further to 2.39. Will be interesting to see if this one sticks.

  5. As usual, sw Ohio goes higher than the rest of the state. $2.29. The special RVP requirement was lifted last year. Why is this corner of the state STILL going higher than the rest, EVERY spike? Big Red trying to squeeze a few more pennies per gallon out of everyone?

  6. I filled everything up this morning just to be safe. A local mid-Michigan Kroger was at 2 bucks and I had a 40 cent discount, so I got 35 gallons for $1.60. I’m sure this likely means prices are going to plummet over the next few days.

  7. South Bend IN – Speedway and friends spiked from $2.19 to $2.39 yesterday. SBN avg up to $2.31.
    Costco went from 2.09 to $2.08 today, the low in the area 🙂

  8. No spike in Michigan and oil was down 7% today.

  9. Oldest trick in the book. Crank prices up on a day when crude tanks. At least we won’t have another spike before Christmas

  10. South Bend IN – Speedway by ND back down to $2.19 now. Mobil/7-11 still at $2.39.
    Niles MI Speedway had spiked also, but they are back down.

  11. well..the speedway that spiked Tuesday to 2.259 retreated 30c..yes 30C a gallon today to 1.959
    . everyone else around was still at 2.159. confused???

    ..see what prices are like in the morning- I need to fill up..shopping around time I guess

  12. A 37 cent spike as crude and gasoline prices plummet. Only 64 cents over the spike line. 3 days before a 4 day holiday weekend. I’ll wait for someone to explain how this is just a natural cycling of the free markets…

  13. A 37 cent spike as crude and gasoline prices plummet. Only 64 cents over the spike line. 3 days before a 4 day holiday weekend. I’ll wait for someone to explain how this is just a natural cycling of the free markets…

  14. Market forces at work Rufus lol

  15. Recession?

    The economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter. Consumer confidence and holiday sales are strong.

    The stock market is being spooked by everything except actual data.

    The economy is just fine.

  16. Filled up the Corolla at Sam’s $1.909 and the Escape at Kroger $1.559 helped by a 60 cent discount for fuel points. I guess that means I’m dealing with Santa and not Krampus.

    Ren, good buddy, I seriously hope you are correct about the economy, but when I hear Steve Mnuchin on the horn over the weekend with the CEOs of the six largest banks telling them not to worry, that is when I start to worry.

    Merry Christmas all.

  17. At some point we need to reevaluate the whole commodities trading game… If a commodity goes from 40 to 70 to 45 in the span of months, someone is playing the market like a violin.

    We didn’t learn in 2007 I guess. Maybe it’s an OPEC trick to drop crude prices to the point where it’s not feasible to do shale oil?

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