Month: December 2018

A Remarkable Fourth Quarter For Energy

Comment on the December 17 posting: CORRECT that prices kept sliding, down in the $1.80’s in certain parts of west Michigan.

Saturday, December 29, 2018, 4:00PM: Let’s be clear about what has happened this fall. On October 1, oil was $75 a barrel and today it is $45. This has led to retail gas prices moving from over $3 a gallon to under $2. This is remarkable! Looking at the new year, because retail prices are all over the place, and we’ve seen a slight rebound in wholesale prices, I suspect Speedway and friends will do a system-wide reset, but we’re only talking something like $2.19 or $2.29. Then, if seasonal trends hold, prices should start moving higher during the first half of 2019 … but I wouldn’t count on it. Happy New Year, everyone! -EA

Recession Coming, or Just Boredom

Comment on the November 25 posting: The reset came on December 4, to $2.39, as we didn’t have any upside in energy until then.

Monday, December 17, Noon: There has been a lack of drama in the energy markets this month, and hence a lack of posting to this site. Today, oil is back to $50 a barrel, which has served as support lately. Short term, it is hard to make a case for a price reset, and we’ll probably see $1.999 again somewhere in western Michigan this week. Longer term, December has been the time of year where prices bottom out, due to more supply and less demand, so, we should probably see higher prices in January. On the other hand, 20+% collapse of oil prices this fall, and the weak stock market, are signs that a recession is starting, which would continue to keep gas prices down. But, you know what they say: “The old joke is that the stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.” -EA

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