Holiday Road

Comment on the June 24 prediction: CORRECT idea, but a bit WRONG in execution, as prices rose to just $3.05, and they waited until Wednesday to do it.

Sunday, July 1, 2018, 10AM: It’s a holiday week, so let’s our get our heads in the right place about it. There is a perception that they like to hike gas prices before a holiday, but here’s a study that says otherwise. You know our approach — estimate the wholesale price, compare to the retail price, make a prediction. Whether or not it is a holiday week is usually irrelevant.

Going into this week, oil prices have jacked up from $65 to $74 the past two weeks, and it doesn’t look like that has filtered into gas prices yet. The last time we were over $70, in late May, we saw a hike to $3.19. That could happen again this week, because of the price of oil, not because of Wednesday is the 4th of July. We might not see a hike until Thursday, so it’s hard to say this is a prediction. Just keep an eye on things.

Bonus: from Futures Magazine, here is an overview of oil prices since before The Gas Game started. Note the long-term trend line which serves like a magnet — prices break away from it, and come back. Looks like we are in breakaway mode again, despite someone’s attempt to talk down the price of oil. -EA

Updated: July 1, 2018 — 9:46 am

11 Comments

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  1. Not certain if GB has become inoculated by our recent .30+ price upticks in SE MI but we never received a Price Hike Alert during the course of the recent upswing in prices. It wasn’t that long ago that a hike of that size would trigger it. All we saw was a red arrow and note that prices are rising.
    Most everyone has backed off that price, some even as low as $2.90, in just a few days. Of course Sam’s/Costco only went from $2.71 to $2.75.
    Is this the infamous dip just prior to the hike? I have a feeling I’d better fill up in the morning.

  2. I’ll be filling up in the morning. Seems to be too tempting for a hike. I think the holiday will have a small impact on when they raise the prices–can’t see that happening until Thursday.

  3. Price going up to $3.09 in Indiana

  4. 2.699 end of street NW ohio RT 20 corridor so right on “the line”..day before holiday or day after spike?..see what the Speedway PR department decides..go with the obvious or damage limitation. Either way 2.95 by the weekend

  5. South Bend IN up to $3.09 today.
    Costco $2.72. SBN avg was $2.84.
    1 year ago was 2.178.

  6. $2.959 in Ohio, with the exception of sw Ohio, which continues the trend of going to a 9 when the rest of the state goes to a 5. $2.999.

    Also – I noticed the Speedways around me all raised their E-85 price by 30 cents as well. Did ethanol spike too last week? Or is Big Red padding their E-85 margins?

  7. 2.959 NW Ohio..Local Cleveland news stations reporting as 4th is midweek, today will be one of busiest holiday travel days for years. Time to $$$$$ in. station at end of street normally doesn’t raise prices till around 6.00pm..already cranked it up at 11.30am !! (marathon AKA owns speedway)

  8. Speedway in IL has a fixed spread between E85 and E10, same spread at all stations. When E10 jumps, E85 jumps the same. The spread, presently 90 cents, is adjusted occasionally.

  9. It’s 70 cents here.

  10. Looking more like the pre-Independence Day spike in the Greater Cincinnati Area has been met with rejection.

    Our Sam’s on the West side never budged and is at $2.709. Around the area $2.759 gas is not hard to come by.

  11. Yep. Topped off for $2.699 at Kroger this morning. $2.999? Bwahahahaha.

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