Month: July 2018

How did we get to $2.69?

Comment on the July 7 prediction: CORRECT, as prices rose to $3.09 on July 10.

Sunday, July 22, 2018, 9AM: Since July 10, we’ve seen the kind of price reset DOWN that we treasure, with prices at $2.69 or lower in several areas of Grand Rapids this morning. So, what’s happening this month? Oil prices dropped 8% and NYMEX gas followed with a 16 cent drop. In fact, other commodities have been weak, too, such as gold. All this is probably connected to a strengthening dollar and higher interest rates.

So, what’s the plan for gasoline this coming week? Think of $2.69 as a clearance sale price by the retailers, and the moment that we get an uptick in wholesale prices, retail will follow with a price hike. That should happen this week, and it looks like $2.99 could be the new price. -EA

Expecting $3.09 Again

Comment on the July 1 prediction: Despite higher oil prices, gas prices stayed below $3, so I was WRONG.

Saturday, July 7, 2018, 9AM: Wholesale prices have been steady, while retail prices have slowly slid lower, and we are getting close to price-hike territory. Price drops of another eight cents or so will trigger it, and I expect we’ll be there by Tuesday morning. Probably back to $3.09. -EA

Holiday Road

Comment on the June 24 prediction: CORRECT idea, but a bit WRONG in execution, as prices rose to just $3.05, and they waited until Wednesday to do it.

Sunday, July 1, 2018, 10AM: It’s a holiday week, so let’s our get our heads in the right place about it. There is a perception that they like to hike gas prices before a holiday, but here’s a study that says otherwise. You know our approach — estimate the wholesale price, compare to the retail price, make a prediction. Whether or not it is a holiday week is usually irrelevant.

Going into this week, oil prices have jacked up from $65 to $74 the past two weeks, and it doesn’t look like that has filtered into gas prices yet. The last time we were over $70, in late May, we saw a hike to $3.19. That could happen again this week, because of the price of oil, not because of Wednesday is the 4th of July. We might not see a hike until Thursday, so it’s hard to say this is a prediction. Just keep an eye on things.

Bonus: from Futures Magazine, here is an overview of oil prices since before The Gas Game started. Note the long-term trend line which serves like a magnet — prices break away from it, and come back. Looks like we are in breakaway mode again, despite someone’s attempt to talk down the price of oil. -EA (c) 2017 Frontier Theme