Month: July 2018

Expecting $3.09 Again

Comment on the July 1 prediction: Despite higher oil prices, gas prices stayed below $3, so I was WRONG.

Saturday, July 7, 2018, 9AM: Wholesale prices have been steady, while retail prices have slowly slid lower, and we are getting close to price-hike territory. Price drops of another eight cents or so will trigger it, and I expect we’ll be there by Tuesday morning. Probably back to $3.09. -EA

Holiday Road

Comment on the June 24 prediction: CORRECT idea, but a bit WRONG in execution, as prices rose to just $3.05, and they waited until Wednesday to do it.

Sunday, July 1, 2018, 10AM: It’s a holiday week, so let’s our get our heads in the right place about it. There is a perception that they like to hike gas prices before a holiday, but here’s a study that says otherwise. You know our approach — estimate the wholesale price, compare to the retail price, make a prediction. Whether or not it is a holiday week is usually irrelevant.

Going into this week, oil prices have jacked up from $65 to $74 the past two weeks, and it doesn’t look like that has filtered into gas prices yet. The last time we were over $70, in late May, we saw a hike to $3.19. That could happen again this week, because of the price of oil, not because of Wednesday is the 4th of July. We might not see a hike until Thursday, so it’s hard to say this is a prediction. Just keep an eye on things.

Bonus: from Futures Magazine, here is an overview of oil prices since before The Gas Game started. Note the long-term trend line which serves like a magnet — prices break away from it, and come back. Looks like we are in breakaway mode again, despite someone’s attempt to talk down the price of oil. -EA (c) 2017 Frontier Theme