A Rather Quiet January So Far

Comment on the December 31 prediction:  $2.59 on New Years Day, as predicted.  CORRECT.

Tuesday, January 17, 2017, 11:30AM:  So, let’s review what has happened since the New Years hike, fueled by the newly higher Michigan gasoline tax.  Retail prices have been slowly dropping, with most places in the Grand Rapids area still in the $2.40’s.  Wholesale prices, however, have had an interesting ride.  They rose sharply the final two weeks of December — almost 30 cents — and since then given half of that back.  Put it all together, and retail prices are still sitting noticeably above the 0-cent margin price, which means no hike on the horizon, and the slow drops continue.  Good!  –Ed A.

Updated: January 17, 2017 — 11:22 am

33 Comments

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  1. East Ann Arbor average is at .21 over Spike, $2.41, with many of the stations closest to me running at $2.29. Cosco is selling for $2.17.
    Curious as to the BP Whiting situation. It seems to be stuck on Yellow–Maintenance/Short term outage. Any official or unofficial explanation?

  2. I filled up today just south of Marion IN for $1.95. While in Fort Wayne earlier this morning, I actually saw a Big Red station showing $1.83. Had to do a double take on that one!

  3. Many Indy stations now below $2. Still looks like hike territory soon (tomorrow?) around here to me
    at least (and for most of IN) but don’t know how that compares to the profit margins/rack. How
    long can we go in the $1.90s…

  4. Cincinnati average is at $2.23 this morning. I will take a bit of a long way home today through Reading, North of town, where a mini-gas war has a Circle-K and United Dairy Farmers $1.719.

  5. I see the Spike Line has been updated with yesterday’s numbers. Good thing I filled up at $2.29 this morning. We’ll probably see an uptick in MI’s prices. MI = $2.31, Indy/IN @ $2.23, $2.22 for OH.

  6. Indianapolis is getting a spike according to Gas Buddy. I also received a Thornton’s text. $2.03 pre-spike avg to $2.19. Speedway must be feeling generous. Anything under 30 cent increase doesn’t feel like a real spike. Of course some stations in Franklin are at $1.82 now so I guess it could be considered real for those guys!

  7. Yeah, think they are getting ready for their hike here in Michigan too. Just saw Greedway do their 5 cent quick drop before they hike their prices. So should jump anytime now..

  8. Spot goes down and retail spikes up according to gas buddy predicted increase. Not seeing many going to the projected higher price. Maybe we won’t get hit after all today.$1.89 cheapest in the area at Summitville Indiana.

  9. I filled up everything I had today, which probably means prices will keep dropping. I was on the east side of Lansing for a dental appointment and the Kroger on that side of town is 2.11, which was 20 cents cheaper than the Kroger on my side of town. I had a 90 cent discount due to a bunch of gift card purchases over Christmas and figured what the heck.

    It felt weird paying 1.21. My Kroger discount is usually 10 cents, sometimes 20.

  10. I’m not even entirely sure it was Big Red that originally spiked Indiana yesterday. May have been, but was first told by coworkers that Thornton’s had put out a spike alert before the spike was showing up in the speedway app data. In any case, with wholesale where it was, $1.87-$1.99 as much of Indy/Indiana was, would continue to be unsustainable, especially for the little guys that can’t sell for long at a loss.

  11. right on the OH spike line this morning in areas NW ohio RT 20 corridor..few places 5-7c below few similar above
    just filled at 2.149..will make sure other car tanks are filled over weekend as spy a 2.399 coming..maybe as early as monday

  12. A couple attempted the spike in Fort Wayne (hello Lassus Brothers) but it seemed to have failed. For today.

  13. Local news is running stories on low gas prices. We all know that’s the final nail in the spike coffin, as they ALWAYS make it a news story when we’re at the lowest point of the price cycle.

  14. Michigan should probably get a reset this week, following 3 weeks (22 days) of falling prices.

    At an average of $2.169, the Kalamazoo area is already 5.3¢ below Friday’s Spike Line price of $2.2220. The Flint area average is 8¢ below the Spike Line at $2.142. The Michigan average is $2.273, 5.1¢ above the Spike Line.

    It is now 10:53 a.m. ET. If there was going to be a reset today, it would be apparent by now, so Michigan drivers in Speedway areas have at least another 24 hours to fill up.

  15. chrisDG74 is right. I heard the report on WOWO myself. Just wahi I thought too.

  16. The Spike Line price in Michigan dropped 10.17¢ Monday to $2.1203. If it remains at that price, Michigan probably won’t see a reset anytime before Thursday.

  17. The Michigan Spike Line is up 3.1¢ today to $2.1513. The Kalamazoo area average is already below that level (barely), having fallen to $2.150. A common low price in the Kalamazoo area is $2.119, plus 3 stations below that and Costco and Sam’s Club at $2.099.

    The Grand Rapids area average is higher at $2.221 and the lowest price is $2.169 at AGO (Citgo?) and Admiral in Sparta. The Michigan average is $2.243 with the lowest price in the state $1.799 at a Citgo in Detroit. The Flint has the state’s lowest metropolitan area average at $2.105.

    At 9:43 CT this morning, Patrick DeHaan began warning his Twitter followers that a reset was near: “Beware: tomorrow could bring a price hike to #Michigan if wholesale prices keep up their move so far today. #gasprices”

    Later this morning, Patrick published an article titled “Gas Prices Likely to Rise Soon in Areas of Great Lakes” at http://business.gasbuddy.com/gas-prices-likely-to-rise-soon-in-areas-of-great-lakes/

  18. Patrick’s colleague, Dan McTeague, warns of a Republican income tax plan that could result in significantly higher costs for Canadian oil imported into the United States. I think this would affect us Gas Game readers: http://business.gasbuddy.com/congress-to-tax-canadian-oil-and-american-drivers/

    Here is the WOWO radio story mentioned above (Patrick will be on WOWO Wednesday at 7:08 a.m. ET): https://www.wowo.com/analyst-gas-price-increase-coming-week/

  19. Received a GasBuddy alert yesterday warning of a “sharp increase” within the next 2 days. That’s a new one for me, so I have to wonder just how “sharp” the increase? 40¢? Or more?

  20. Thanks for the updates Diether. Very helpful.

  21. It depends on how low the prices in your area already are. If you read Patrick’s article, linked in my previous comment, he references Lafayette, Indiana, where there are currently 3 stations at $1.639 (all in the 4200 and 4300 block of South St.). He predicts prices will reset to $2.199 or $2.299 in Indiana, which would be an increase of 56¢ to 66¢ for these stations.

  22. So the stations near to me will actually drop (if it goes to $2.19) to spike! Awesome!

    The stations along Rockville Road never took the last spike. I was lucky enough to be out that way over the weekend so I topped off. At home though it’s 2.20-2.25 still! ugh

  23. Range of $1.90 (Costco) to $2.29 in South Bend. Avg $2.024.
    2 Speedways by ND at $1.91, down .01 since yesterday.

  24. just hitting 1.999 in selected places NW Ohio RT 20 corridor..but still 2.15+ if you are unlucky..or dont seek out the hot spots
    still right on the line so could go either way..if we do spike this week should be less than the 2.499 last time..maybe a 2.29-2.35?

  25. Spot dropped 6 cents today to $1.43. A nice drop in spot seems to be a precursor to a next day spike in gas. Filler’ up boys and girls!

  26. I don’t know if prices will go up tomorrow in Michigan or not. The Michigan Spike Line price is $2.0840, 14.4¢ below the Michigan average of $2.228. The main reason to reset tomorrow is simply because it is a Thursday, but they could hold off until Monday, January 30.

    The present Flint area average is at exactly the Spike Line: $2.084

    The Kalamazoo area average is $2.141, down only 0.9¢ from yesterday.

  27. Topped off for $1.849 with the cash discount in Muncie yesterday. Even filled my mower cans. Spring runup just around the bend and can’t go wrong at below cost purchase. I feel a spike in the air.

  28. The two gas stations I mentioned last week in Reading, North of the Cincinnati city limits went up to around $1.80 over the weekend but began inching down. This morning both dropped to $1.629. I hope I can stop there later today before I run out of luck.

  29. It is now 11:06 a.m. ET. If there was going to be a reset today in Michigan, it would be apparent by now. They occasionally do afternoon (2:30 p.m.) resets, but that is more of a springtime thing when the wholesale price is rising and the market is volatile. They normally do not do resets on Fridays, Saturdays, or Sundays, so I guess the next chance for an increase is on Monday, January 30.

    The Michigan average is barely changed from yesterday, now $2.224.

    Here is what Patrick tweeted at 7:50 CT this morning: “Expecting a #GreatLakes #pricehike today! A station in Ohio at $1.59 today, selling at a massive loss, many also in same boat, trigger hike.”

    I imagine those stations selling greatly below cost will raise their prices somewhat over the weekend, but not to a full reset price.

  30. all quiet NW ohio also..Gasbuddy reporing prices still falling.. more and more stations hitting 1.999. daily topoff continues……….

  31. That $1.599 in Ohio is now $1.579, in Oxford Ohio. The stations there have been in a price war since the last spike to $2.499, all undercutting each other a penny or two at a time.

  32. It is now Monday, January 30. Patrick has tweeted the following this morning:

    9:56 a.m. “ALERT: #GasPrices appear to be rising to $2.19 in #Ohio and #Indiana”

    9:57 a.m. “There she finally goes: #Ohio and #Indiana #gasprices starting to rise to $2.19 today. Nothing yet for #Michigan. Stay tuned KY, IL, WV”

  33. Yep! Going to $2.19 in South Bend IN today. Avg was 1.979
    No change a few miles north in Niles MI.
    Time to visit Costco for $1.87.

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