As 2016 Comes To A Close, Two Price Hikes in the “Pipeline”

Comment on the December 4 prediction:  We did get a hike on Friday, December 9, so CORRECT

Saturday, December 17, 2016, 11:00AM:  We have scattered reports of local hikes in the Midwest the past two days, but none yet in Grand Rapids or the stations I monitor in Fort Wayne.  However, wholesale prices spiked on Friday, and ethanol has been out of control for a week.  So, if you haven’t seen a hike in your neighborhood yet, you will by the end of the day on Monday.

Looking ahead, this may be my last post for 2016.  Here in Michigan, I’ll have to retool my calculations for the big gas price hike on January 1 (as noted in the comment section of the last post by Diether Haenicke).  So, prediction:  prices will rise on Sunday, January 1 in Michigan!  And as I wrote last time, I’m expecting a lot more volatility in 2017, which should make playing The Gas Game more of a challenge.

Thank you readers and posters for being with us in 2016! — Ed Aboufadel

Updated: December 17, 2016 — 10:33 am


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  1. 4 days of work the game will be played for a few days to get the best rate..2.359 going rate right now NW ohio corridor

    I am going to spend 2 weeks in my “native” home, the united kingdom from just after Christmas to end of first week of January

    here’s some math to ponder
    in the town I used to live in, today’s prices is 1.15 GB pounds per liter (its all metric over there lol)
    there are 4 liters to a US gallon (in Europe its 5 liters per gallon) so that’s 4.60 GBP per gallon (1.15 x 4)
    at $1.30 per GBP for currency conversion that’s $5.98 per US gallon…..(4.60 x 1.3)

    bear in mind most cars in the UK get 35-40 MPG so if you assume the MPG is double, that’s still almost $3.00 per gallon – over there the cost per gallon is like 75% prices are around 30-35% higher

    happy Christmas to all..lets see if things calm down in January..and maybe see a sub $2.00 price at the pumps again

  2. Last time (many years ago) we had a hike in the IL fuel tax rate on Jan 1 & not everyone went up in lock step that day or earlier. Probably depends where prices are in the Speedway price cycle. If they just go up a couple days before January 1 and even if they didn’t include any cushion in that hike, maybe all it does is speed up the arrival of the next increase based on whatever margin formula Speedway uses. Of course our last hike was not 7 cents.

  3. It’s been nice to see the local chain, United Dairy Farmers/UDF not succumb to the spike. A lot of 2.09-2.19 to be found at their locations in sw Ohio.

  4. Last Friday’s IN spike has hit SE MI, going to $2.45+/- .10. Pre-spike avg was $2.29 in the Ann Arbor area. Merry Christmas from Big Oil to us!

  5. So will we hit $3 before we hit $2 again or the other way around?

  6. Definitely $3 before $2.

  7. As long as the OPEC production cut sticks, they got us by the you know what. There are a handful of locations in Indiana in the $1.9x range, but yeah we’re on the march towards $3 bucks a gallon. Wonder how ugly it will get when March-April rolls around and prices really start cranking up?

    Hoping for a country or two to bail out of the output cut and throw a wrench in the works

  8. I heard a song on the radio today, “I’m dreaming of a $2.49-$2.59 Christmas” by Bing Crosby and the “Big Red” Orchestra. With spot on a continuous upward march, my wallet is already feeling lighter

  9. will we or wont we get another hike before chistmas?
    Based on the numbers this morning with a lot of 2.35’s around NE Ohio corridor still around 10c over the line

    the one Xmas cheer I have found is an Oasis of 2.10’s amid the desert of 2.35’s (and one is a speedway…omg !!) so just topped off again 12 gallons at 2.109

  10. $2.45 Grand Rapids, MI – – Merry Christmas everyone!

  11. from DTN Marketwire at midday:
    Chicago spot gasoline basis continued to strengthen,
    rallying more than a nickel early Wednesday on reported refiner buying interest.

    Sources said basis found support from reports late Tuesday that BP shut a
    reformer at its 430,000 bpd Whiting, Indiana, refinery while another source
    said Marathon’s Detroit refinery is also rumored to have a reformer issue.

  12. We may get Turbo’s wish before the year is out. $3 dollar a gallon gas with oil at $52 bucks

  13. Good ol’ Whiting.
    The “upgrades” (LOL) they did a while back were supposed to bring price stability to the area.
    We all see how THAT has worked out…….

  14. Ohio average now only 67 cents over spot. Looks like we’ll be getting one more “present” before Christmas, courtesy of Big Red.

  15. I guess this is our Christmas gift from BP Whiting:

    “Chicago spot gasoline basis were stronger again this
    afternoon, firming more than 7.0cts on the session on reported refiner buying
    interest with two refiners in the area reported to have reformer issues”

    Spot closed up 8.69 cents to $1.6955

    Yaayyyyyy….$2.59 for Christmas and $2.99 for New Years!!!

  16. just topped off at 2.079…26c below spike line in ohio so thats not sustainable for sure
    still 2.35 most areas but at least 2.499 about to come..maybe even 2.599

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