Our Mindset Going Forward: Expect Chaos

Comment on the November 22 prediction:  We didn’t get a hike until Monday the 28th, so the prediction was WRONG.

Sunday, December 4, 2016, 9:00PM:  So, we have a new problem.  The President-Elect is unpredictable and, looking at what he says on Twitter, likes to stir things up.  That will be an on-going contributor to volatility in the markets, so we could get more ups-and-downs than we have the past few years.  With the quiet energy markets of Obama’s second term, we didn’t have to pay as close attention, and it was a easier to make predictions.

We have another new problem.  For the first time in eight years, OPEC has decided to cut oil production.  Just on the news, oil prices rose 10%, and wholesale gas prices are starting to go up, too.  If my calculations are right, we aren’t there yet for a hike on Monday, but I’m expecting one this week.  That’s a prediction.

Also of note:  December is usually the time for the lowest gas prices of the year, but this year that may have happened the Sunday after Thanksgiving.  We’ll see. -EA

Updated: December 4, 2016 — 9:15 pm

19 Comments

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  1. Re: the gas prices of December, Ed. Ann Arbor’s average today = $2.45. One year ago = $1.82.

  2. We(sw Ohio) actually had our cheapest prices in February. Valentine’s Day weekend – $1.489 avg.

  3. I can verify that Chris. I filled up around Valentine’s Day in Crawfordsville IN for $1.19

  4. 2.119 fill up NW ohio corridor this morning..lots 2.15-2.25 still around. if things start to calm down with oil/spot safe right now..but filling up daily just to keep ahead of “the game”

  5. With the world wide gut of oil right now, lots of full tankers sitting at anchorage, storage tanks at or near full, that China already filled their oil storage facilities, and with it, a lot of demand gone, it’s going to take a long time to drain the “oil supply pipeline”.
    It will be interesting on how soon cheating will happen, and non OPEC members will abide by the agreement.

  6. oil and spot drifting down..2.10-2.15 good range NW ohio corridor so still looking safe this week still around 15-20c over the spike line

    will settle for that right now..but bit head shaking as its 40c gallon more than last year

  7. RBOB futures be damned! Chicago spot rose 7.65 cents today.

  8. Gas rising to $2.35 in Michigan this morning, and $2.29 in Indiana and Ohio per Big Red (Family Express earlier this morning also hiked NW Indiana to $2.29)

  9. South Bend IN $2.29 today also. Both Speedways by ND were 1.89 this morning. $0.40 spike!

  10. nice..greedway ohio spike to 2.299..guess 10c margin wasnt enough to fund the exec’s office party..time to let it fall a bit next week then ramp it up further for christmas

  11. I remember seeing on the news when OPEC said they would cut production and it was noted that it would have little to no impact on prices in the U.S. (like I believed them – – not!).

  12. Spot ticked up to $1.45 today. With some non-OPEC members joining in the production output cut, I’m afraid the remaining Indiana gas stations under $2 bucks a gallon will soon be a distant memory

  13. random chaos best way to describe prices NW rt 20 ohio corridor today..2.05-2.29 spread in prices over a 50 mile or so radius.. very confusing..station at end of street 2.299 friday…2.199 sunday 2.279 today

    if spots around 1.45 today’ close spike line is around 2.10 so plenty of room for prices to come into some sort of order..I have my ‘top up’ picked out already for the morning.. spy a 2.099 that I will be passing around 5.30am

  14. REMINDER:

    The 19¢ per gallon Michigan gasoline tax will be increasing 7.3¢ to 26.3¢ on January 1. I imagine we’ll see that increase included in a reset prior to January 1.

    In addition, automobile registration rates will increase by 20% on that date, so you might save yourself some money by renewing early before January 1.

    As far as last winter’s seasonal bottom for gas prices, in Kalamazoo it was around $1.299 on Wednesday, February 10, just before Valentine’s Day.

    One bit of good news with a President Trump and his appointees is that we are more likely to get a repeal of the ethanol mandate then we would under a President Rodham-Clinton.

  15. $2.499 spike in Ohio under way.
    A full $1.02 over spot. Thank you sir. May I have another?

  16. Make that $2.399 in Ohio.

  17. Merry Christmas from Big Oil! Funny, I thought OPEC cuts weren’t going to affect pump prices that much? $2.39 is a full 60¢ above where we were on election day. Just sayin…

  18. South Bend IN spiking to $2.39. Speedway by ND was 1.99.
    Time to visit Costco for $1.95.

  19. Are they starting to switch to summer blend already lol? Wow, spot sure went ballistic yesterday. Indiana gas average is 38 cents higher than last year at this time. We’re really going to get hosed when the actual switch to summer blend kicks in. Maybe the frackers will fire up operations again soon to help offset these production cuts.

    Went up to $2.29 near my house, but the majority cranked it up to $2.39.

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