Comment on the November 22 prediction: We didn’t get a hike until Monday the 28th, so the prediction was WRONG.
Sunday, December 4, 2016, 9:00PM: So, we have a new problem. The President-Elect is unpredictable and, looking at what he says on Twitter, likes to stir things up. That will be an on-going contributor to volatility in the markets, so we could get more ups-and-downs than we have the past few years. With the quiet energy markets of Obama’s second term, we didn’t have to pay as close attention, and it was a easier to make predictions.
We have another new problem. For the first time in eight years, OPEC has decided to cut oil production. Just on the news, oil prices rose 10%, and wholesale gas prices are starting to go up, too. If my calculations are right, we aren’t there yet for a hike on Monday, but I’m expecting one this week. That’s a prediction.
Also of note: December is usually the time for the lowest gas prices of the year, but this year that may have happened the Sunday after Thanksgiving. We’ll see. -EA