Near The Spike Line

Comment on the July 25 prediction:  We didn’t see serious price hikes, although there was a bounce of off $1.79 in Indiana.  Basically WRONG.

Wednesday, August 3, 2016, 10:00PM:  Bill Eby has done fantastic work for us the past several years, maintaining the Spike Line and Today in Oil pages.  He is taking a well-deserved hiatus, and going forward we won’t be able to update those pages (unless a new volunteer steps forward).  But, we will continue to try to predict gas price hikes, and I think we have one coming.  Wholesale prices have tacked on a dime in the past week, while retail prices have been slipping, and it looks like we’ll have a hike on Thursday or Friday.  I’m going to go with my $2.39 estimate, again, but we’ll see.  — Ed A.

Updated: August 3, 2016 — 9:49 pm

30 Comments

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  1. I’d say a 40¢ price spike is a serious hike. Oil is at 4 month lows, the kids are going back to school over the next 2 weeks, and prices are jumping back up to the $2.29 range, 18¢ above the national average, which GasBuddy insists is trending down. I was in South Carolina 6 weeks ago and prices were about the same there as in Indiana. Assuming this spike goes through, Indiana will be about 50¢ higher than SC. They must not charge any tax down there.

  2. The insanity of Speedway pricing reveals itself when one is outside the zone… Tho I’m bothered far more about zone pricing than spikes as of late.

  3. Correctly called, Ed. Speedway leading the charge to $2.39 in Ann Arbor followed by a half dozen other stations. Some of the other usual suspects are standing pat….for now.

  4. $2.39 in GR as well

  5. Problems this week at BP whiting, IN have sent spot and wholesale sharply higher:

    ” ultraformer unit at the company’s
    430,000 bpd Whiting, Indiana refinery was shut earlier in the week and is in
    the restart process with a return to full rates expected over the weekend.
    Production during the downtime was reportedly reduced by an estimated 20% to
    25%”

    At least not a repeat of last August.

  6. Spot has risen about 15 cents in the last week as it closed at $1.46 today. Restarting BP Whiting = a short lived spike (at least it should)

    If I remember right during last August Jim, gas went up nearly a buck in a one week span. I think we had a rare “triple banger” spike.

  7. “At least not a repeat of last August.”

    Give it time.

  8. We are one week into August. The West side of Cincinnati is pushing $1.10 over spot and I’m sure GREEDway can milk another spot out of the Whiting issue. This may be enough to build more GREEDway gasoline palaces in the Middle Atlantic states.

  9. “AAA says gas prices in the Great Lakes region continue to be among the most volatile in the nation, amid refinery outages and declining supplies.”

    Apparently, all other regions of the country enjoy refineries that never break down and have an infinite supply of gasoline…

    And then the mouthpieces of the industry wonder why we’re cynical 🙂

  10. Turbo – Nor do the other regions contain refineries that have “routine maintenance” that causes 25%+ spikes in pump prices.

  11. Spot up a tad to $1.45 at mid-day. I’d say we’re ripe for a spike either tomorrow or Thursday. Love those volatile gas prices lol

  12. Wish we had a like button on here Turbo. We’re cynical because we have every reason to be. And the charts back it up.

  13. I’m gonna give away my age here, but kind of like the old Lily Tomlin skit being the phone operator except the words are a little different… “We’re Greedway, we don’t care, we don’t have to”

  14. prices 2.05-212 generally NW ohio corridor so right on the line

    gas buddy gone from reporting stable early this morning to prices falling so no Tuesday spike looks like coming –

  15. As usual, Greedway increases prices and other stations follow suit. In the past 5 days gas in the SE Michigan area jumped up by .40 cents from 1.99 to 2.39, then dropped down to 2.19 yesterday.

    Just think on January 1st, 2017 the new gas tax kicks in for Michigan. SIGH

    turbo46032 did you forget the Great Lakes region has the absolute most squirrels in the whole country? Those little rats with tails continually wreak havoc on the refineries. ^_^

    Mike – Kalamazoo: that explains Greedway’s outlook perfectly!

  16. True, not many squirrels in Kansas… Way too hot. But Big Energy has a way of getting their due. Summer utility bills are quite ugly.

  17. I’m a few days late, Chris, but thanks for the various updates on Spot. Much appreciated.

  18. Speedway spike in South Bend IN today to $2.19, was $1.99 for 1 day. The Niles MI spike several days ago to $2.37-$2.39 didn’t take at all the stations & is now down to $2.09-$2.19.

  19. Speedway spike in southern Indianapolis today (Wednesday) to $2.19

  20. Anderson n Muncie cranking her up to $2.19 led by none other than Big Red. Heeeeeeeere we go again on the roller coaster. I hear Wichita’s coaster is broken lol

  21. Nah, they just have kiddie coasters. Little hills. Apparently squirrels don’t like them.

  22. Squirrels and big coasters don’t mix lol.

    Spot took a nice drop to $1.37 today. ANOTHER short lived spike

  23. Squirrels and big coasters don’t mix lol.

    Spot took a nice drop to $1.37 today. ANOTHER short lived spike

  24. Actually the areas I frequent in Kansas are considerably more hilly than Indy… KC itself and the two college towns off I-70. It flattens out a bit past Salinas then the real mountains begin after you cross into Colorado.

    The Fit often pops to 5000 rpm to keep up with the hills.

  25. I hit the GB site. The first news story I see echos the news on TV this morning. “Gas prices are expected to drop below $2 per gallon.”

    This, as always, translates to “you better top off early and often.”

  26. Yep Bear, that’s just a code for prices to jump 30 cents within 24hrs…

  27. Well, well, well. Would you look at that? It’s August and we have another BP refinery “issue”. And the mouthpieces wonder why we’re all so cynical:

    http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/houston/chicago-gasoline-distillate-differentials-rise-21174061

  28. Hey Chris would those mouthpieces contain the name Ren lol.

    Prices dropping back a bit at the pumps. Although WTI Crude went up a buck today, Spot barely crept up and closed out the week at $1.43. I’d say we’re in good shape

  29. Chris – yes.
    Ohio is 67 cents over spot(we’re still 80 over in sw Ohio). Ohio usually spikes when we get close to 65. I expect Monday will finally be the day for a spike, with pump average falling through the weekend.

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