Month: April 2016

Game Reset

Comment on the April 9 prediction and recent price action:  We were CORRECT on April 9 about that hike, but my spreadsheet calculations have been out of alignment since then, and I missed both the April 20 and today’s hikes.  WRONG and WRONG.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016, 3:00PM:  $2.39 here in Grand Rapids, today — ouch!  Sorry that I haven’t been able to help with predictions, but my calculations have been off.  I spent time this afternoon reviewing my spreadsheet and revising calculations based on RBOB inputs, and it seems to backtest well.  At least looking at the past few months.  Now, why do prices keep going up?  I think it is fair to say that wholesale oil and gas prices were artificially low this winter, and I still blame that on the blowup of Glencore.  At this point, $2.99 this summer won’t surprise me. –Ed A.

Making the Game More Difficult to Play

Comment on the March 28 prediction:  For the most part, CORRECT, as prices rose as predicted, but up to $2.19, not just $2.09.

Saturday, April 9, 2016, 9:00AM:  Maybe it is karma for my “We know exactly what we’re doing” snark on March 28, but this week, many of the freely-available sources that The Gas Game uses to monitor wholesale prices in the Midwest went dark, at least temporarily.  We can always keep an eye on the publicly-traded futures contracts in New York, and there other tricks we have to try to track these prices, but they are less exact and less reliable.  But we’ll do the best we can going forward, and with oil prices shooting up on Friday, it is clear so did wholesale gas prices.  Looks like the station I track in Fort Wayne jumped up to $2.09 sometime in the past 16 hours, and there are reports that Ohio went up to $2.09 on Thursday.  So it is clear that a price reset is coming in Michigan and other Big Red states.  Figure that we are heading back to $2.19 either today (Saturday!) or on Monday. –Ed A.

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