One Day: Negative Gas Prices

Comment on the January 23 prediction:  We did get a hike as predicted.  CORRECT.

Monday, February 8, 2016, 4:30PM:  December 31 was not a good time to buy stocks, or oil.  But gold has been on a tear higher, and the world economy remains unstable.  In Japan, they now have negative interest rates.  That means that they will pay you interest when you borrow money.  Given the way wholesale gas prices have been falling, at what point does Speedway start to post negative gas prices?  For every gallon you pump, we’ll give you a dollar!  We’re a long, long way from that moment, but Chicago wholesale gas prices continued to fall today to levels not seen for years, to 56 cents a gallon.  That corresponds to a retail price in the $1.10-$1.20 range.  So, expect prices to keep falling! –EA

Updated: February 8, 2016 — 7:59 pm

29 Comments

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  1. $1.28 throughout West Michigan. Bought in Greenville yesterday for $1.33 minus .06 for using Mobil card. Other Greenville Stations were $1.28 while the Marathon on M57/West Washington was at $1.48…for some reason….
    Lots of oil out there both in the ground and in the tanks throughout the world. Shoud the price go up the spigots re-open. The genie is going to be out of the bottle for a long long time IMHO. Good for consumers but gee, the world is frowning as are the equity markets…I give up trying to figure this crap out. Guess I’ll go for a ride and use some gasoline!

  2. The headline reads, “Could .99 gas be coming to Michigan?”. It is based upon a quote by Patrick DeHaan that indicates that there is a fire sale on Winter Blend and once it is washed out of the system the price will begin to rise. He indicates it could happen by this weekend.

    http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2016/02/99-cent_gas_coming_to_michigan.html#incart_river_home_pop

  3. Well if things hold to form, with the way all the local news stations are reporting gas prices dropping, we should probably see a hike by Thursday. Say 1.599? You know, Big Red saying We’re still in charge…

  4. No way in h-e-double hockey sticks Big Red lets gas dip below $1.
    Not gonna happen, even if spot dropped to 20 cents/gallon.

  5. It’s only the middle of February! They have til May 1 for summer blend, I wonder what are their turnover rates in their inventory….60, 90 days????

  6. There is 70¢ just in State, fed, and sales taxes and add deliveries and possibly a few cents more by the time you add in a bit of profit. I once said that it is very hard to go below $1.50 a gallon, and it is even more difficult to go below $1.00 a gallon. My thoughts are, maybe a couple of deep discount stations here and there, Michigan seems to have them first. But I doubt seriously that the advertised price in Fort Wayne will dip that low. But I’ll happily eat my words if it happens. Out stations are too lockstep in pricing to allow it to happen. No one wanders from the herd.

  7. Here’s a second article on the topic from yesterday. It gives a few more reasons for the current low process, including the Midwest’s proximity to $15/bbl Canadian crude.

    http://www.freep.com/story/money/business/michigan/2016/02/09/michigan-gas-prices-12-year-low-may-dip-99-cents/800543

    He indicates “pipeline specifications” as the reason for the start of the changeover.

  8. gregg531…
    It’s not just summer and winter blends. It’s a stepped up approach to summer blend. I believe February 15 is the cut off date for the “dead of winter” blend to be gone from storage. That’s 5 days away. Watch for a bump in spot price soon

  9. Spot skyrocketed yesterday, both during the day and after-hour trading. Would not surprised to see a spike in the next couple of days.

  10. … and right on cue, Big Red has pulled the spike lever. $1.59 gas this morning coming to IN, MI and OH

  11. Speedway sure didn’t waste any time capitalizing on yesterday’s spot run-up.

  12. Just in time to lock in their gains from $27 crude…

    Ironically Speedway could use the current crude pricing woes to get out of their spike pricing and into something more Costco like.

  13. Taxes (fed/state/local)are under 50c/gal in all midwest states minus WI. MI is 49c, IL 49c, IN 48c, OH 46.4c, not a blanket “70c”

  14. South Bend IN – Speedway spike to $1.59. Some were $1.30
    Speedway also to $1.59 in Niles MI

  15. Even though we has a big gain in spot yesterday spot was even steven from last Thursday to today. The numbers did not warrant a spike. This is a case of Speedway spikes “because they can.”

  16. Wholesale cost today was a little over $1.30/gallon. Many stations in West Michigan in the $1.20’s or below. There was a reason for a spike. Selling below today’s cost.

  17. “spot was even steven from last Thursday to today. The numbers did not warrant a spike”

    So the 18 cent decrease in pump price (Grand Rapids) from Thursday last until today was irrelevant?

  18. “So the 18 cent decrease in pump price (Grand Rapids) from Thursday last until today was irrelevant?”

    And we were 95 cents over spot a week ago. As Paul Harvey used to say, “And that is the rest…of the story.”

  19. When you have a DEEP discounter, even if just a very few in the state, spiking will happen when they, those very few, get below zero margin. Because all the other stations know those few are below cost, and know it’s time they can raise prices and the discounters will follow. That is what happens. You have seen me complain that Fort Wayne has no deep discount stations. Usually, we spike late (a day or more) because of it. Once, Fort Wayne never spiked at all because none of our stations were far below the margin.

  20. Is Martin Shkreli the CEO of Greedway? Just wondered. They both kind of run the same business model..

  21. We had a southern style spike in Delaware County Indiana. Went from $1.43 to $1.49

  22. Along my commute, only the Speedways had gone up as of 7am. The 10 or so, non-Speedways were still in the 1.30s and lower 1.40s. I’m sure they’ll cave today.

  23. Guys, the jump has nothing to do with media (I know you love to give them credit). More to do with the sudden and large scale refinery run cuts. Over five major refiners have announced run cuts. It’s the psyche of these cuts that’s sending the market into outer space. The last time run cuts happened was in 2008/2009. Not exactly everyday events nor predictable. Combined with OPEC talks about an actual production cut as much more likely, the market has gone from tremendously bearish to bullish. Has nothing to do with media, and no one saw this coming. I guess that makes us “clowns”.

  24. They really threw out the chum water today for the speculators. Brent and Crude up 10%. RBOB up nearly 10 cents. I’d hate to see that Chicago Spot is right now.

    I can’t believe we could be facing the possibility of piggybacking another spike on Saturday-Monday.

  25. Chicago spot gained another 18c so far today. It’s 82% higher than intraday Tuesday.

  26. As we already knew: We’ll see $1.999 before $0.999.

  27. Good to see the futures markets are working as expected…

    Any commodity that is subject to such wild price swings is being manipulated, or at least that’s what the Hoi Polloi think. With a Honda Fit I don’t really worry about it but let’s not pretend it’s a free market.

  28. This 80% plus run up in spot price should be good for another spike tomorrow or Monday and then another one Thursday/Friday of next week. I sure enjoyed getting my $1.19 gas in Crawfordsville the other day

  29. Quite a few places in Carmel IN are 1.45… GetGo is 1.35 with their card. That has been the trend the last few spikes. I wonder if the empire is creaking a bit.

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