Comment on the December 30 prediction: Prices held steady until we saw a reset on January 4. It wasn’t what I expected (a Fat Fingered Greed Grab?), but it wasn’t too dramatic either. 1/2 CORRECT, 1/2 WRONG.
Thursday, January 14, 2016, 7:00AM: A belated Happy New Year! But it has not been happy for investors in stocks … or energy, with oil dropping to $30 a barrel. The question on more-and-more minds is whether the markets are adjusting to Federal Reserve policy, and this is another one of those scares that builds up a “wall of worry”, or if the markets are predicting, or maybe causing, a new recession. Looking back over my adult life, years where we changed Presidents have not been too hot, economy-wise (e.g. 2008, 2000, 1992, 1980).
For those playing The Gas Game, though, we should be in really good shape. Wholesale gas prices have dropped below $1, reflecting the collapse of oil prices, and with taxes and other costs, I estimate a price to retailers this morning of $1.56. With the cheapest gas in GR at $1.75, we have room to drop, and I predict we’ll see noticeable downside action through the weekend. — Ed A.