Price hike coming: nothing to do with Thanksgiving this week, right?

Comment on the November 14 prediction:  Pretty much CORRECT, as prices have been falling considerably and the cheapest in the GR area today is $1.65.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015, 8:30PM:  Today we saw the first spike up in wholesale gas prices in quite a while, and with retail prices in the $1.60s in some places, I think we are setting up for a holiday price re-set on Wednesday, back to $1.99, and maybe higher.  We are already seeing this in parts of Indiana and Ohio.  So, if you are driving to relatives on Wednesday, fill up early and often. -EA

Updated: November 24, 2015 — 8:27 pm

18 Comments

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  1. Well, I took everyone’s advice and I’m all set at $1.65. What the heck happened to the spot today?

  2. Spot was up 13.59 cents gaining 6 cents over the RBOB futures. No reason given that I saw.

  3. Cincinnati spiked to $1.89 yesterday. With the spot raising 13 plus cents this puts us right back where we were before yesterdays spike. Will GREEDway pull the trigger again? We all know the answer to that.

  4. Probably Friday. Get everyone going back home.

  5. Really surprised, nothing in Kalamazoo area as of lunch. Not complaining, was able to top off before it does go up. Still anywhere from 1.59 to 1.79 in the area.

  6. The lowest price in Lansing seems to be Kroger at 1.84. I’m getting ready to travel for Thanksgiving and I’m going to use a 10 cent discount and fill up everything I have before hitting the road. There are some stations in Charlotte, which is about 10-20 miles away that are around 1.60. Seems crazy.

  7. The spike is already reversing. Surprised it happened this quick. We’re back down 10 cents from yesterday’s increase. Lafayette Indiana seems to be thumbing their nose at the spike gurus. Several stations still showing $1.48 when I drove through.

    Still much better than Weirton WV where I was at the last few days where gas was $2.21

  8. down 8c from yesterdays 1.92 peak south of the Ohio RT20 corridor – couple stations went from 1.71 monday to 1.85 tuesday to 1.92 this morning and already back to 1.83 this afternoon

    it seems like resets are sporadic over a 20-30 mile radius – some stations havnt moved all week..and those that went up 20 cents or so yesterday are already approaching halving that gain already

  9. Southeast side of GRR has fuel at $1.59. Rockford area and others at $1.86 or so. Greenville last I looked was $1.70ish. I have seen no price rises in the Grand Rapids area at all this weekend to speak of.
    That is all…

  10. I’m spending Thanksgiving with my older child in a non Speedway state and one would love to see 1.5x or 1.6x prices here. But at the same time their prices are laughably stable and whatever refineries are supplying them seem to have unicorns on staff.

    They do have some zone pricing – the next town over is an Army town and gas is 15c cheaper there vs the posh college town here…

  11. If your market didn’t get a Speedway hike last week, expect one this week, probably Monday.

  12. if we get a monday reset will prob be to 2.099 in NW ohio – still a mixed bag of prices from 1.69-1.85 over a 20-30 mile area

    with a long weekend havnt done too much driving- topping up daily right now

    currently BP driver rewards has offer that you link a VISA card to account (must be VISA not MASTERCARD) get extra discounts for using – currently I have 30c gallon discount accumulated -awaiting a spike and of course awaiting an empty tank on the Jeep (18 gallons) as its a one hit deal up to 20 gallons max. Current promo can get you up to 60c a gallon discount – imagine getting $1.00 gas..shades of 1998 !!!

  13. There was no Thanksgiving reset in Michigan. Prices in Kalamazoo have remained historically low (especially when adjusted for inflation) and stable for the past week. I am expecting a reset to $1.999 or higher in Michigan tomorrow morning (Monday, November 30). I will post more in the current thread, titled “E85: Is it time to give it a thought?”

    *****

    scala100 wrote: “imagine getting $1.00 gas..shades of 1998 !!!”

    Adjusted for inflation, buying gasoline today for $1.00 per gallon is like buying for 69¢ in 1998. The only place in Michigan you could get gas for 69¢ in 1998 is if a radio station, or something, was running a very limited promotion. Circa 2002, WKZO AM 590 had a promotion with the West Main St. Shell where the first 100 people to arrive were entitled to purchase up to 10 gallons of gasoline for 59¢ per gallon, cash only.

    However, if you filled up for $1.00 per gallon in 1998 (8 gallons or more), you would receive a free car wash at the West Main Shell. There was another Shell that gave away a free 2-liter of pop with each fill-up. I don’t think anyone gives anything anymore for a fill-up, other than maybe a discount on a car wash.

  14. I changed my mind and decided to not disrupt the E85 topic.

    I filled up on the morning of Monday, November 23 for $1.599 in Oshtemo Township, because I believed Michigan was going to get a reset on that day. As it turns out, there was not a reset on that day or at anytime since. However, that same station is presently $1.579, so I did not make a mistake (on buying at that price) and the price has remained essentially the same for a week. In the Kalamazoo area, the present GasBuddy average is $1.678. There is 1 station at $1.519, 3 at $1.539 (two being Sam’s Club and Costco), 6 at $1.579, and a large number at $1.599. Kalamazoo presently has the SECOND LOWEST GAS BUDDY AVERAGE IN THE UNITED STATES, behind Lubbock, Texas at $1.675.

    Grand Rapids has the 8th lowest GasBuddy average in the United States, at $1.747. The lowest price in Grand Rapids is $1.569 at 6 locations, 3 of them in Hudsonville.

    Michigan has the lowest state average in the nation, at $1.799.

    Of the 15 lowest prices in Michigan, 10 of them are in southwest Michigan. The Oakland & Centre Citgo in Portage at $1.519 has the 2nd lowest reported price in Michigan.

    The national average is presently $2.035.

    At the moment, gas prices in Michigan are at or near historical lows, when adjusted for inflation. I know that from my personal experience, but here is an opinion column that says the same thing: http://www.mlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/11/ken_braun_proponents_of_law_ai.html

    It is quite possible that Michigan will never again see nominal gas prices this low, especially considering the gas tax increase planned for January 1, 2017.

    Patrick tweeted this on Wednesday morning: “Jump in mogas inventories, Midwest refinery utilization surges back to 92.2%, US overall utilization jumps 1.7% to 92%, spot markets crumble”

  15. Incredibly, there was no Speedway reset this morning in Michigan.

    At present, Kalamazoo has the LOWEST metropolitan average in the United States at $1.682. Flint is third lowest in the nation at $1.698.

    Michigan still has the lowest state average at $1.794. Missouri is number two at $1.806.

    Two of the four lowest priced stations in the Kalamazoo area HAVE gone up this morning. Sam’s Club in Portage went up from $1.539 to $1.599. The BP on W. Centre Ave. near U.S. 131 went up from $1.539 to $1.639.

    Global oil prices may go even lower as Iranian oil comes back on the market: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/opec-rivals-become-unwitting-allies-in-push-for-oil-market-share

  16. Yet another day without a reset in the lower peninsula of Michigan, where the statewide average is $1.769, still the lowest statewide average in the nation. Ohio is second lowest at $1.787 and Missouri is #3 at $1.806.

    Kalamazoo continues to have the lowest metropolitan average in the nation, currently $1.676. Flint is second lowest at $1.683. Lubbock, Texas is #3 at $1.702, but their prices are up from $1.674 yesterday. #5 is Champaign, Illinois at $1.707. #6 is Toledo, Ohio at $1.713. #7 is Grand Rapids, Michigan at $1.715. #8 is Lansing, Michigan at $1.729. #9 is Dayton, Ohio at $1.744. The lowest individual station price in the United States might be the Circle K at 3603 Cougill Lane in Lafayette, Indiana at $1.389. The only other state with prices below $1.40 is Texas, which has two stations in Wharton (H-E-B and Buc-ee’s) at $1.399.

    The low end of actual prices in Kalamazoo County has returned to $1.579, which is available at 8 locations, all of them near Costco in Oshtemo Township, except for the Sam’s Club in Portage. On Monday morning, there were 4 locations with reported prices below $1.579. All of them have since gone up, as follows:

    * $1.519 is now $1.599 at Citgo on Oakland Dr. at W. Centre St. in Portage – For a few years, I have repeatedly noticed that this station drops to the lowest in the Kalamazoo area on mornings that a reset is expected, so it was no surprise to find this station as the lowest yesterday morning.

    * $1.539 is now $1.619 at BP on W. Centre Ave. at Angling Rd. in Portage (down from $1.639 on late Monday morning) – This station seems to compete with the Citgo on Oakland/Centre, so that is why it was near the low end on Monday morning.

    * $1.539 is now $1.579 at Sam’s Club in Portage (down from $1.599 on late Monday morning) – This station often matches the Oshtemo Costco price, which is why it is back down to $1.579.

    * $1.539 is now $1.579 at Costco in Oshtemo Township – This station didn’t go up on Monday until AFTER the Oakland/Centre Citgo did. Costco apparently has a corporate policy that they will have the lowest price of any station within a 3-mile radius ( http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2014/11/costco_warehouse_club_shoots_f.html ). This Costco drops prices more aggressively than the Sam’s Club in Portage. This Costco is responsible for the west side of Kalamazoo consistently having the lowest prices in Kalamazoo County since it opened in November 2014.

    Yesterday’s Michigan Spike Line is $1.5752, which just happens to match the price of the 8 lowest stations in Kalamazoo County. In the Grand Rapids area, there are 10 stations at $1.559 and 1 at $1.529. Of those ten stations, 7 are in Wyoming and 4 are Admiral stations.

    At this point, I don’t expect a reset tomorrow (Wednesday, December 2). Maybe we’ll get a Michigan reset this Thursday (December 3). Yesterday’s Michigan Spike Line is 19.38¢ above the current Michigan average.

    Ohio and Indiana got a reset last week for Thanksgiving, but not Michigan. I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that Marathon (Speedway’s parent company) owns the only refinery in Michigan? Maybe Marathon is trying to get rid of excess inventory?

    Here’s a Grand Rapids Press article from last Wednesday, titled “Michigan gas stations ‘losing their shirts’ as prices drop to 7-year low”: http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2015/11/not_since_the_detroit_lions_we.html

  17. reset starting in Ohio 11.30 am wednesday

    1.999

    led by speedway

  18. Kazoo area going to 1.899. Not to bad of a jump. Hope it holds at no more than that.

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