Weak summer, strong fall?

Comment on the September 29 prediction:  Up to $2.59, as CORRECTly predicted.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015, 7:15PM:  Are the markets shaking off their weak summer?  Oil has been going up since late August, wholesale gas prices have been going up since mid-September, and stocks have looked better the past week.  Consequently, we are back in price hike territory, and I’ll be filling up on Wednesday morning, expecting a new price in the neighborhood of $2.65 here in Michigan.  As the Halloween ghost would say:  Boooooo! — Ed A.

Updated: October 6, 2015 — 7:14 pm

80 Comments

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  1. Looks like we’re back to the spike a week trend. Crude has went up quite a bit the last couple days. Do we have a slow leak at BP Whiting? A spike this week SHOULD prevent another one from happening on Columbus Day next Monday.

    Maybe we’ll get some analysts predicting $3.25 gas by Christmas which will really translate to $2 bucks (it’s always the opposite ya know lol)

  2. Speculation rules now. One of the reasons for oil’s rise today was Greece hopes. Follow the news stories about rising oil, you will find it has nothing to do with supply and demand. There is no proof to back of their claims.

  3. Biggest issue I see… Every single refinery just about in speedway country is seemingly undergoing maintenance of some sort. I understand that they need to so we don’t get another Whiting debacle, but all at the same time? It just really does make you wonder.

  4. What many people don’t realize is that the Futures and Securities Modernization Act of 2000 allows them to fabricate any crisis they want. California is having the same issues we are. There is a watchdog group out there that is investigating it and asking a lot of questions.

  5. My gauge, that of the Pilot Truck Stop in Fort Wayne, has increased OTR diesel for the big rigs to $2.59. 4 cents since yesterday. That puts this morning’s regular at most stations at 20 cents less. So just prior to a spike, just, gasoline is priced where it should be.

  6. $2.599 in Ohio now.
    Paid $2.199 this morning.

  7. Indiana going up to $2.59 as well. Michigan appears maybe to have a reprieve until at least tomorrow since their prices are a lot higher there? Big number in oil report was refineries only running at 79.2% so 20+% of capacity offline.

  8. Fill up for $2.28-$2.37 in South Bend IN while you can! $2.59 is underway!
    So much for using the cheaper to make winter blend gas that gets less mpg.

  9. Glencore passes the ball off to Greedway, Greedway looks around and can’t find anyone open, then drills it back to Glencore. Glencore throws it up above the hoop and Greedway dunks it for the score!

    I just signed up for the Glencore newsletter and they have grand plans for Christmas which is why they’re starting early. Diamond rings, catamarans and lavish European vacations are in store for many of the employees. They also gave me advance notice on upcoming spikes, led by Greedway of course:

    October 15th spike to $2.69
    October 20th spike to $2.79
    October 29th spike to $2.90

    They also mentioned that winter blend fuel will be priced the same or higher than summer blend lol. Fill up the Fit Turbo!!!

    Meanwhile, Lafayette has also jumped in on the spike game 🙁

  10. Given that we are on ‘cheaper’ winter blend that yields less performance/mileage, and that so many refineries going into maintenance. Unlike Target’s slogan of “Expect More Pay Less” I guess it’s actually more like Expect Less Performance, Pay More. LOL

  11. Just filled up both tonite…$2.269 on South D in Grand Rapids…..Still can’t believe some are just putting in $5 or $10 in….even after I tell them of a spike is coming….Sheep!

  12. Ultimately you don’t win the gas game by playing the highs or lows – not long term.

    You win it by using less gasoline. The Fit is stellar even tho I have to drive 10 hours to my college kid in a week or two. After 10 hours it feels like I drove a rickshaw…

  13. Lockstep $2.59 in Fort Wayne now.

  14. Score another one for the little guys. Speedway in Daleville Indiana didn’t hesitate one bit to go from $2.23 to $2.59. The two Pilot stations countered that move with just a 16 cent increase to $2.39. Of course the Speedway denizens pay no attention to the $2.59 neon sign with cars galore frequenting the pumps. I’m sure tomorrow they’ll admit their greed (did I just say that) and match the $2.39 price.

    Pretty easy to guess which station my Hondas get filled up at lol

  15. Wonder if we are going to get a Saturday spike. Prices are actually still falling a little, like they do right before they jump. Really though we would see one in the Kazoo area yesterday. But not complaining…not yet anyway.

  16. The Carmel IN GetGo still has $2.29 gas plus 10c off with card. They should for a couple weeks at least. 116th and Meridian.

  17. I’m in Richmond, Virginia right now….and gas is $1.96/gal. Amazing how we have about a 28% markup in our area.

  18. VA is ALWAYS cheaper than us. Whenever we travel to my in-laws in Va. Beach, we wait until we get to VA to fill up. Always 20-50 cents cheaper than WV. ALWAYS.

  19. And by “us”, I mean Speedway states, Ohio for me.

  20. And, yes, I am aware that WV has higher state tax than VA. Doesn’t explain the other 35 cents though.

  21. It’s wishful thinking but it would be good to see consumer minded state attorneys general and the Feds investigate such things.

    Not that it did any good in the West Coast or when the Senator Wyden report came out decades ago but still… It’s pretty much a 30 cent premium for living in the Midwest, probably more in the Chicago and Cincy areas.

    I’m still amazed Speedway hasn’t tried to pull this off in other areas but at the same time in amazed that in the liberal haven of the West Coast they’re still paying what they are and nobody complains…

  22. Cincinnati average 20 cents above the National average.

  23. Still no hike yet in Michigan. The south end of Grand Rapids is now down to $2.18.

  24. Don’t think we’ll be so lucky this week jen.. sure would be nice to be wrong though..

  25. Hang on to your wallet. (I hope they are right, but I haven’t observed it yet)

    http://wane.com/2015/10/12/analyst-gas-prices-should-start-falling/

  26. Still 2.31 in the Ionia area.

  27. Still mostly $2.45 with $2.39 spread in there too in Fort Wayne.

  28. TimmP – sure wish they would stop doing that. I would guess that over 90% of the time they say something like that, the prices jump. But like you hopefully they’re right. Its kind of the like the end of the world predictions, you keep saying it and one of those times you might be right…

  29. Nice drop in Spot the last couple days. Maybe the “scheduled” spike for Thursday will be “rescheduled” lol

  30. Nah. Some “maintenance” will no doubt happen……or a fire….

  31. Ohio now 60c above spike price..drifting lower below 2.40 in the rt 20 corridor – all things being stable sub $2.00 gas coming?..will it get here before thanksgiving tho?

  32. 2.299 cheapest near me in sw Ohio. Should be dropping near $2, assuming nothing ELSE goes down or catches fire.

  33. Maintenance is beginning to wrap up. Already several refiners back online. Today’s 73% utilization may be the bottom with rates rising from here on.

  34. From a Yahoo story today: Gasoline stockpiles fell by 2.6 million barrels as less of the motor fuel was turned out last week. Refinery utilization in the U.S. Midwest fell to the lowest on record since 2010, EIA data showed.

    “The rebound in gasoline demand is the bright spot in this report,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research for Clipper Data, an energy database and consultancy.

    So now if they turn out less gas from the refineries, it means gas demand is up? They will use any excuse in the world.

  35. The Kroger station by my house has dropped .20 over the past 3 days. Today the price is 2.19. The last time is was that low was September 23rd. Let’s hope the prices continue to fall.

  36. The Kroger station by my house has dropped .20 over the past 3 days. Today the price is 2.19. The last time it was this low was back on September 23rd. Let’s hope the price continues to fall.

  37. Sorry for posting the same thing twice. The first time I tried to post it, it said “session expired reload the page”. When I did it removed my comment so I wrote it again and posted it. Now it shows both posts…go figure!

  38. $2.39 a week ago….$2.09 today with Daleville Indiana leading the charge having the cheapest gas in Indiana at the moment. Love to see it drop below 2 bucks!

  39. Gas at the Kroger station dropped another .05 today. I’m with you Chris, I hope gas goes below $2.

  40. Costco, WMT & Admiral down to $2.17 today in South Bend, IN. Avg $2.27.
    Niles MI $2.19 @ WMT, $2.21-$2.29 at the rest.

  41. Daleville Indiana at $1.99. Another 29 cent drop and we’ll have matched our 2015 low of $1.70 back in January

  42. Not much negativity now that prices are actually doing what “experts” said. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while I guess.

  43. I’m mad as hell Derek. Mad that we’re way below Indiana’s average price of $2.29 lol (it’s a rarity I know)

  44. Cincinnati at a $2.29 is still 5 cents over the National average and flirting with $1 over Chicago Spot. Submitted without negativity.

  45. Fairfield is bringing that Cincy average down. $2.019, Pleasant and Nilles.

  46. I feel the fall is very slow getting to us. Fort Wayne this morning, is still mostly $2.19 and above. That’s almost 38 cents above zero margin.

  47. Still 2.25 in the Ionia area

  48. Spot up 10 cents today. What’s on fire?

  49. A squirrel must have chewed on an extension cord.

    The greater Cincinnati area has about a dozen station cross the $2.00 threshold, all in the Fairfield/Hamilton/Springdale area. We are still 3 cents over the National average.

  50. I read on Bloomberg this morning that the Saudis are about done flooding the market with oil. They feel they have finally throttled American production enough that they can begin tightening the market again.

    IF Fort Wayne gets below $2.00, it most likely won’t be by much or for long. With all our MW refinery issues a while back, we got screwed for 4 weeks and never really recovered.

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