Still no rush to fill up — maybe later this week?

Monday, September 14, 2015, 2:30PM:  I know, it has been too long since my last post, but what I am supposed to post everyday — “Expect prices to fall?”  What a crazy time it has been, as prices soared on August 12 and have been in free-fall for a month.  Here’s the current setup:  based on a midday quote of Chicago CBOB to $1.38 a gallon, I estimate the price-to-retailers to be about $2 a gallon here in Michigan.  We are down to $2.07 in Sparta today, and $2.29 in a lot of places, so we *still have room to fall*.  I know there are $1.99s and lower elsewhere in the Big Ten region — let’s see it here in the Grand Rapids area!  Looking ahead, we could see some volatility later this week, due to the Federal Reserve meeting, and that could lead to a price reset at the end of the week.  But it is too early to say, and we should be safe through at least Wednesday. — Ed A.

Updated: September 14, 2015 — 2:35 pm

32 Comments

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  1. Thanks for the update, Ed. Glad to hear the good news will continue at least for a couple more days.

  2. I think those market forces Turbo loves to hear about will kick in and give us a spike later in week as Ed hinted to. I doubt it will last long though. We’re only 35 cents above our $1.70 price back in early January. If things keep up the way they are, coupled with the switch from summer to winter blend may very well send us below that mark. One can hope right!

  3. Today is the day for the switch to winter/non-summer right?

  4. independent retailer

    Cost down 5 cents today. I’m buying at $2 a gallon today. Stations South and West of me are selling in the low 1.90’s. Spike today is my guess.

  5. Ohio is still about 80 cents over spot. Doubt we will see one here, but you never can be 100%.

  6. Prices in Lansing finally dropped a significant bit on Sunday. A lot of locations went from the mid 2.30’s to the mid 2.10’s.

  7. It’s $1.889 in Greenville, and $1.999 in Spring Lake, way below the spike line

  8. Chicago Spot up 11 cents today. Looks like it may be spike Tuesday, even in Ohio.

  9. So, the arrival of “Winter Blend” brings with it an 11 cent increase in spot?
    But, but, but, we were told Winter Blend was cheaper. But, but, but….
    Yep, expect Speedway to take full advantage.

  10. Where can one find the daily Chicago Spot prices on the web? I’m having trouble locating a free source.

  11. Regardless, going up today in Michigan to $2.39, Indiana to $2.29… they can’t sell at a ton of stations below cost forever I guess (even in Turbo’s usually expensive home turf of Carmel they got off their zone pricing horse for a bit and it got down to $1.93 this morning)

  12. Ah, yes, after a steady one-month, one-dollar drop in prices, we must wring our hands about a mere 30% recovery of that decrease…

  13. $2.599 this morning in Hebron, IN. And of course, Family Express leading the charge.

  14. I guess I’m glad I filled up this morning for $2.11

  15. I’m doing no hand wringing Ren. 🙂 I just got back from Maui where was paying $3.20s for the week. I’m assuming will hopefully be back in sub $2 territory in a week or so. Still a bit annoying that oil drops a slight bit and despite huge gains in refined products, the speculators are driving things upward this morning on the markets.

  16. Speedway leading the spike in South Bend IN to $2.29. Fill up for $2.01-2.11 while you can! No change in Niles MI just yet at $2.04-$2.17

  17. 2.39 in Kazoo area now… nice while it lasted.

  18. A month long drop by a dollar is just as unconscionable as a hike by a dollar in two or three days for a Chicken Little The Sky Is Falling routine.

  19. But Turbo, you forget, when you’re the only game in town, you get to make up your own rules..

  20. Jrunner: Lucky you just coming home from Maui. I love it there and have never seen anywhere more beautiful. We like to stay in Kihei. Would love to live there, but the price of everything is quite expensive! Wonderful place to visit though.

    Turbo46032: Well said.

    The cheapest gas price in the my area of SE Michigan is 2.04, other stations range from 2.08 to 2.39. Of course, Speedway is the highest at 2.39 – shocking!

  21. @Jrunner: Of course, I agree you were not the one hand wringing.

    @Turbo: Show me where prices were “hike[d] by a dollar in two or three days.” Specifics, please.

  22. Two hikes within a couple or so days pushed us from 2.29 or so to $2.99 or so – and higher in the suspect areas. Then despite the fact that Chicken Little Refinery was fixed in a week instead of the predicted “weeks” or “months” it took till early September to bring prices down to the same levels. Some places with high zone pricing did worse.

    The refusal to drop prices helped with the crude dip of 8/18 to 8-27 also…

  23. See Chicago spot is back over 1.50. Squirrel problems at refinery again?

  24. The squirrels must REALLY love the winter blend gas. Must be the pumpkin spice. It’s that time of year.

  25. I also see the predicted crude pricing of $38 is actually turning out to be $46. That’s a 22.5% (give or take) miss.

  26. $2.399 Ohio spike underway.

  27. BP shut down their Toledo refinery for “maintenance”. Darn squirrels…..

  28. kettledrum wrote: “Where can one find the daily Chicago Spot prices on the web? I’m having trouble locating a free source.”

    We used to get this information for free from Bloomberg ( http://www.bloomberg.com/energy ). The exact URL used to be http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CHOR87PC:IND (The price updated 4 times a day: market open, mid morning, afternoon, and market close.)

    Now, the only way I know of to get a clue is to monitor Patrick DeHaan’s tweets: http://twitter.com/gasbuddyguy

    As far as the most recent reset, Patrick did not say anything relevant about it until 9:17 a.m. EDT on the day of the reset: http://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/644138093772152832

  29. I post the daily spot and more on the Today in Oil page:

    http://www.thegasgame.com/features/today-in-oil/

    Sorry Ren, Turbo is mostly right on this one:

    http://www.thegasgame.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/image003.png

    Check from 8/7 to 8/11.

  30. Saturday price hike in Chicagoland, the first since the triple August hike. $2.59 and $2.69 prices.

  31. The Spike line is at $2.23…I just got gas on Alpine for $2.27….we are getting close for a increase…..

  32. Opps, almost $2.25 in Michigan…..getting close!

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