After the Surge

Comment on the July 22 prediction:  No, they didn’t reset the system until the beginning of August, so WRONG.

Thursday, August 20, 2015, 11:15AM:  So, I take a few weeks off for some academic travel and some relaxing and everything goes crazy.  Why are we so vulnerable to the refinery in Whiting?  Just to show you how crazy it was last week, here are two screenshots from Speedway’s web site on August 11 and 12, from a station in Fort Wayne.  The nice thing: with a Speedy Rewards card, they gave you the pre-hike price for the rest of the day.  Do they do that in Michigan?

Aug 11-12 Hikes Speedy RewardsNow, what’s next?  Since the Uber-like “surge pricing” last week, Chicago CBOB has gone from $2.51 to $1.96, and I bet it is lower today.  Oil prices are in free-fall again, down near $40 a barrel.  And those $2.95’s I see around the Grand Rapids area look rich given the CBOB price.  (I see we are down to $2.82 in Kentwood as I write this.)  So, expect prices to keep falling, probably through the end of August.  I’m not going to be in a hurry to fill up. — Ed A.

Updated: August 20, 2015 — 11:20 am

102 Comments

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  1. Still pretty high in the Kalamazoo area also. Is 2.36 at Costco but everyone else is in the mid 2.50’s to low 2.60’s. Sure taking its time going back down..

  2. Mike: same here in Fort Wayne. Same SLOOOOOOOOW retreat. Same pricing.

  3. Spot up almost 11 cents yesterday?!!???!

  4. Still have LOT of room to drop on Ohio. Finally seeing some stations (only a select few though) in sw Ohio drop below $2.40 today.

  5. LOOK OUT Fort Wayne! If spot doesn’t go up again today, we could be back below the national average this weekend. Woo Hoo!

  6. Well look at that, just when the “supposed” supply problem is fixed in our area and it is predicted that our gas prices will fall…. oil is up 5 dollars a barrel in the last 2 days, which of course will cut into or stop the falling gas prices… time to get a bike I guess..

  7. Oil up 11% for the week AND Tropical Storm Erika heading towards Florida….could it mean a gas spike next week?? Sure hope not

  8. 1) Erika is not expected to be anything more than a weak tropical storm if it reaches FL. It is not expected to do anything in the Gulf of Mexico.
    2) FL does not produce a lot of oil or gas.

    From what I read, other things are driving the rally in oil and gasoline futures. Isaw it termed a “technical rally” yesterdfay. If it would keep going next week, say another 15 cents higher; we’d likely be in spike territory over here in Chicago by the Labor Day weekend which of course know always happens anyway. wink wink.

  9. Cincinnati is still roughly $1.15 over spot. I would hope there is no spike on the radar screen.

  10. Costco at 2.09 and everyone else at 2.50. A few peeks at 2.19 here and there. Are they hoping for another crude “rally” to move back to $2.79 territory?

    On second thought, I counted 4 Tesla’s, 1 BMW i3, and umpteen Leafs and Volts on the way to Costco today. At some point – not now, not in 2-3 years, maybe 5 – the oil industry may start thinking about the future. I’m sure they’ll milk us for all we’re worth till then, but it will happen.

  11. We finally dropped to $2.49. Still way above the spike line, while a couple spots in Muncie are in the low $2.30 range. It’s nice being close enough to Muncie and Anderson to shop around for the lowest prices. Up 80 cents in 3 days and down 50 cents in 16 days….hmmmmmmmmmmm

  12. I found it for $2.25 at the Circle K on east side of Indy on Friday and finally topped off at BP in Lawrence for $2.21 tonight. Speedway sure as heck not leading any decreases as they often do, and Kroger hasn’t been the lowest as they sometimes are either.

  13. Boy, stations are sure hanging tough with prices. Moat stations in Fort Wayne are still in the upper $2.30’s with SAMs and Costco at about $2.32. Although we are back below the US average, we still ae paying a premium for the gas in the tanks for BP Blunders.

  14. We will have a brief window of happiness before the Labor Day spike….

  15. That happiness will last until around Wednesday night Turbo. WTI crude up 11 bucks a barrel since the middle of last week. That should translate to a roughly $1.70-$1.75 Spot price which will give us $2.69-$2.79 for the holiday weekend. Prior to the Whiting outage it seemed to be about a 75 cent margin between Spot and gas prices, but now it’s really out of whack.

  16. The tag team between refinery downtime and crude lows is in full swing – crude down a lot? Poof the Magick Disruption… Which is fixed despite dore predictions as if by Magick! And all of a sudden crude reasserts itself!

    Maybe it’s all a set of coincidences but I would just once love to see the events go the way of the consumer. Just once, ya know?

  17. Using the logic that the Whiting outage was felt harder the closer you got….

    Lawrenceburg IN, with is closer than Cincinnati, is 50+ cents/gallon cheaper.
    Oh wait. That is the OPPOSITE of what should have happened.

  18. I drove from Lansing to Bowling Green, Ky yesterday. I saw prices as low as 2.09, possibly around Fort Wayne and definitely north of Indy. Prices in Lansing were mostly in mid 2.50’s when I left. I filled up south of Indy for 2.25. Just south of Louisville I saw 2.19. There were a lot of 2.40’s-2.50’s along the way and maybe even some 2.60’s.

  19. I can’t speak for MI/IN and OH but unless a major refinery outage occurs in the next 24 hours there no chance of a pre-Labor Day price hike in Chicago’s market.

  20. Oh, come on, Jim, you know it “always” happens leading into holidays!

    (Except the majority of the time, when it doesn’t happen. But we won’t let that get in the way of some angry fist shaking. It’s the only exercise some people get!)

  21. I’m shaking my fist with happiness Ren! Gas has dropped to $2.23. Its went down more in the last 5 days than it did in the previous 2 weeks. Indiana is still about 21 cents above the spike line, so we could be safe (did I just say that lol)

  22. I think that’s fist PUMPING, not shaking. 🙂

    In Indy, our average is now below the average price back when Gasmageddon started. In fact, we’re flirting with a five-month low…

  23. Fort Wayne is a whole 13¢ (unlucky?) above what our low was back in early March, almost 6 months ago. I’m nervous with WTI climbing lately, and I don’t think we have caught up to where we would have been if Whiting would not have gone black for us. But I’ll take the prices in the meantime.

  24. Cincy still 12 cents higher than the Ohio average.
    We will see if that actually goes back to normal after 9/15, when the RVP requirement goes away……

  25. Spending Labor Day with my grad student kid a few states west of Indiana. Every gas station in the city of 50,000 is the same price regardless of locations including places in the middle of nowhere on I-70… Without another gas station in sight for an hour. Also mY kid reports prices don’t randomly jump up and down.

    On the other hand their best gas station can’t match our worst and only on I-70 does one see Taj Mahal convenience stores.

    I feel so privileged 🙂

  26. No holiday spike, yet again. The myth takes another hit. Now we’ll have to find something else to complain about, lest people think we have no idea what we’re talking about.

    Average prices are down over 70 cents the last three weeks, and down well over $1 since this time last year.

    So frustrating…

    🙁

  27. Average prices down 70c only because they went up 1.00 or so in a couple days.

  28. Prices are about the same as what they were the week BEFORE Whiting. What’s your point?
    That we have returned to where we were before the unnecessary, immediate run-up?

  29. Why are prices down in Cincinnati? We have a gas war in SE Indiana that settles down to $1.93 – $1.99. Up North in Fairfield and Springdale prices are down to $2.08 – $2.12. Finally. They are forcing prices down a bit inside the circle. The Speedway closest to us is fighting with everything they have to maintain $2.45. Last I looked it is a ghost town. Even the Speedy Freezes are developing mold on them.

    I have no thank you to give to GREEDway for no holiday spike. We had, in a month, an “unplanned” Whiting Outage, at least two months to fix, record spikes, ‘possible shortages’ in the two month outage span of time, a Cincinnati surcharge and lastly 2-1/2 weeks of minuscule falling {like a feather) prices.

    Yes, things are better and no holiday spike but most everyone experienced August 2015 and the near hoax that was perpetrated on us. A hurricane, flood, squirrel infestation and an ‘unplanned outage’ of two months lead time and we will be two days away from rocketing up to near $3.00/gal. It is frustrating.

    Happy Labor Day All.

  30. Fairfield is now $2.05-$2.07.
    Colerain Ave is still holding at $2.499. Amazing what happens when 2 of the 3 stations on a major road are Speedway……..(Colerain Ave).

  31. Pleasant Ave, Fairfield (1/4 stations Speedway) now $2.029. Well, not Speedway. They’re stil the highest of the four, at $2.089.

    Colerain Ave, (2/3 stations are Speedway) STILL $2.499.

  32. Maybe somebody can explain the phantom “two month” fix.

    The first spike occurred around Aug. 1. The refinery was back to regular production before the end of August.

    In my market, the average price was above $2.50 for only FIVE DAYS after the outage.

    Fact always beats hyperbole. You will be far more successful if you embrace that maxim. But, then again, I’m convinced that far too many of you actually prefer living the life of the sad sack.

  33. Sorry, prices were above $2.50 for two weeks, but the point still stands. The spike’s effects lasted for far less than two months.

    Two weeks of “high prices” that were actually well below the prices a year ago. Non-stop complaining ensued. Wow.

  34. Indy as always is divided, 2.09’s to 2.23’s thanks to zone pricing… Gotta love the free market.

    Filled the rental on the way back at a Speedway (2.12)… One can play the gas game at the state level – avoid Illinois fill ups for example and fill up in Missouri for 20-25c cheaper.

  35. This is what I see when looking at Gass Buddy AVERAGE ASKING price graphs:
    1)Fort Wayne’s lowest average price a while back before the Whiting outage was $2.33
    2)It is now $2.22, down a full 85 cents from the highest due to Whiting
    3)During those 30 days, S.C. lost 21 cents going from $2.17 to $1.96
    4)In late July, FW was 12 cents higher than S.C.
    5)If you wonder where FW should be? Try 12 cents over S.C. today $1.96, that would be $2.08, and we are about $2.22. This is as close as I can get to demonstrating the lost $$ (asside from needing to buy gas during the spike) to the consumer. HOWEVER…….we are WAY BELOW AVERAGE. WOO HOO for that.

  36. The aforementioned cheap area is now $1.919. (admittedly, probably selling at a loss)
    The aforementioned pricey area is STILL $2.399.

  37. Ren wrote “I’m convinced that far too many of you actually prefer living the life of the sad sack.”

    Common sense tells me to ignore your moronic reference to people you know nothing about, Ren. However, the temptation to reply is too great to resist.

    You must have been thinking of yourself when you wrote your comment because you epitomize the meaning of the word “sad sack”. Also, you find great pleasure in being insulting and quarrelsome. Most other people bring insight and value to this page; while you continue to prove you’re nothing more than a condescending male donkey.

  38. Victoria,

    Quite the contrary. Ren brings insight that is oftentimes refuted and disregarded. People ignore reality (that’s their choice) though sometimes they “understand” and realize reality. I don’t know why some people live in this falsehood, but the point is to educate and help people understand The Gas Game. Ren’s contributions are positive and seek to help people understand, and after in some cases years of people that sing the same tune and prefer to victimize themselves, I too would say something is wrong.

  39. Patrick, it’s hard to ignore reality when you travel regularily outside the Iron Curtain of Speedway and see what it looks like to have little zone pricing and no spikes.

  40. My brother recently visited from NJ. He can’t even pump his own gas in that state, still it’s (usually) cheaper. And he couldn’t wait to get home after enduring a 42 cent spike the day he filled up to drive home (I wasn’t paying attention to inform him, my bad). LOL. So he only bought 5 gallons, and took off. In 20 years of living in NJ, he had completely forgotten how it worked back home.

  41. SW Ohio spike underway. $2.299.

  42. Despite already being 82 cents over spot, they felt the need to initiate an increase…… Gotta love Speedway.

  43. Gotta take advantage of a 4% price drop in crude yesterday 🙂

  44. Even though Columbus OH is almost 20 cents cheaper than Cincy, we spiked and they have not…. I’d LOVE to hear someone from the rose-colored glasses crowd explain this.

  45. Nevermind. Columbus was just a little late getting to the party.

  46. I wish Grand Rapids and the immediate burbs would spike to $2.29.

  47. Patrick: Obviously, you and Ren are like minded. That doesn’t give credence to what either one of you posts here. Overall, the people posting on this site share information that help others stay informed. Nobody has to agree with it, but Ren is the only one I’ve seen be insulting, which is totally unacceptable. The fact Ren wrote “far too many” people here are “sad sacks” (meaning an inept person who causes feelings of pity or disgust in other people) is both childish and untrue.

    I appreciate the information most people share here and must admit Turbo46032 is one of my favorite contributors. He adds a bit of much needed humor along with insight.

    While everyone is entitled to share their opinion here, name calling and rude behavior serves no good purpose. You and Ren should give that great consideration before you post a comment. If people want to sing the same tune, it’s their song to sing! If it offends or infuriates you to the point of name calling just ignore it.

  48. The lowest gas prices around my house in S.E. Michigan range from the Kroger station at 1.98 to Zazz at 2.07. Many stations have gas for 2.09.

    ChrisDG74 glad Columbus made it to the party. Better late than never as they say.

  49. Honor among “thieves”…two of the three Greedways stayed low along with most other stations in my immediate area (which has won the zone-pricing lottery this month), long after the rest of the Toledo area reset to $2.299 yesterday.

    What was the excuse? Thought oil went down recently.

  50. Cincinnati pretty much fell in lock step with GREEDway at $2.29. Our average is likely to exceed $2.29 since there are still many stations that are higher than $2.29. I find it ironic that once GREEDway spike it is a race to the top with the formerly lower price stations but the stations that have been over the spike price never once meets the spike price. Hmmmm!

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