Some good news, some bad news

Greetings, everybody. I’m the new guy, Tim. I was recently been asked by TheGasGame to join their group and help out with contributions on gas prices from the Great State of Ohio. I have been tracking gasoline prices in Ohio for several years using the model developed by TheGasGame. I do my best to help people time their gasoline purchase and save money. It’s a real honor to have been invited by Patrick, Ed, and Bill to write here. I look forward to sharing my perspective with you all and hearing back from you, as well.  That’s the good news.

The bad news is that there’s been a large jump in the Chicago CBOB price today. It’s the result of a downed crude distillation unit locate at BP Whiting – one of the largest refineries in the Midwest. CBOB closed UP 28 cents a gallon and RBOB is UP 23 cents a gallon. These new spot prices look to put Indiana under the Spike Line and take a big bite out of the margins in Ohio and Michigan. It’s uncommon for such a large jump to go unnoticed by our friends in Enon, OH. Be prepared for a price hike tomorrow. -TS

Updated: August 10, 2015 — 6:14 pm

15 Comments

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  1. Welcome Tim.

    Curious and fearful as to what damage a 28 cent spot hike will have on the Cincinnati prices and will we have the “Cincinnati premium” of 10 cents over most all other areas of Ohio. We are currently 13.1 cents over the Ohio average.

    As Hans Solo would say, “I have a bad feeling about this.”

  2. Gee, another Whiting issue just as the trend was getting a good run down hill in the cost. Who’d a thunk? I don’t believe this is planned or desired by anyone, but is it really random when this type of predicament happens so often? And last week a Gas Buddy piece on local WANE Chanel 15 just told us to expect steadily dropping prices and a winter of under $2.00 gas. I bit my lip and said nothing so’s not to jinx things. But the process didn’t need me.

  3. Here is the article from WANE, complete with projected price graph.
    http://wane.com/2015/07/31/gasbuddy-prices-at-pump-could-drop-below-2-00/

  4. Looks like it is on in Ohio.

    Speedway is setting the price of $2.59 at many of their stations in Ohio.

    Southwestern Ohio (Dayton-Cincy region) is getting $2.69.

  5. Yeah and may only be the beginning. If spot prices jumped that much in one day, could we be seeing a 2 for week? Sure hope not.

  6. Mike, that was my first thought also. Only if the 28 cent rise yesterday relents today could we see a single spike week.Odds are pretty good for a twofer.

  7. Majority of IN going to $2.59 this morning (including Indy), Michigan gets $2.69, and NW Indiana is going to $2.79. Gotta love how local news reports always lag and are reactionary and someone I know thought they heard yet another story just this morning about gas prices continuing to fall. Sigh.

  8. Yes, Jrunner, yesterday, this was the news. NOTthe Whiting problrm.

    http://wane.com/2015/08/10/gas-prices-continue-to-plunge/

  9. Yep just went to 2.69 west of Kalamazoo

  10. Timm, you expect us to be able to predict the future? Yeah, that’s possible 🙂 Absent unexpected issues, gas prices will move as forecast. And when Whiting is back up, expect the decline to resume. This isn’t a paradigm shift in fundamentals, it’s a temporary outage.

  11. No one expects perfect prognostication. I certainly don’t.

    But it is with anecdotal certainy that as soon as someone predicts a long term of downward trending prices, something happens within days, and usually at Whiting, to blow the perception of that long term prediction all to smitherenes.

    So we feel left out of a piece of that trend. Say… if the trend was to be downward pricing for 4 months, we just lost 25% of that trend?

    I oftentimes employ a literary device known as irony, and sometimes sarcasm. I was not being literal.

  12. South Bend IN heading to $2.59, Speedway by ND went from $2.29 to $2.59.
    SBN avg $2.33

    Niles MI Speedway at $2.69 now, Niles avg $2.39.

  13. I read this on the Internets so I don’t know how accurate it is – price of electricity in Japan is up 30% since Fukushima – and they shut down all reactors afterwards. One is restarting today.

    What kind of price increase would we see if Whiting was out for good? 30%? We’d be lucky to see that.

    To be fair to the industry they are making so much from 2.xx gas that they’re reluctant to go higher but Timm’s point is valid. Every time someone predicts “lower prices” something happens and we are back to square one. Random, yes, but….

    Anyhow, if the Japan story is true it really makes one wonder.

  14. Grain of salt time, but a station owner in Troy and family friend told my parents to expect a jump to $3.00 tomorrow!

  15. Sorry should have said Troy, Ohio forgot this was multi-state site

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