Month: August 2015

After the Surge

Comment on the July 22 prediction:  No, they didn’t reset the system until the beginning of August, so WRONG.

Thursday, August 20, 2015, 11:15AM:  So, I take a few weeks off for some academic travel and some relaxing and everything goes crazy.  Why are we so vulnerable to the refinery in Whiting?  Just to show you how crazy it was last week, here are two screenshots from Speedway’s web site on August 11 and 12, from a station in Fort Wayne.  The nice thing: with a Speedy Rewards card, they gave you the pre-hike price for the rest of the day.  Do they do that in Michigan?

Aug 11-12 Hikes Speedy RewardsNow, what’s next?  Since the Uber-like “surge pricing” last week, Chicago CBOB has gone from $2.51 to $1.96, and I bet it is lower today.  Oil prices are in free-fall again, down near $40 a barrel.  And those $2.95’s I see around the Grand Rapids area look rich given the CBOB price.  (I see we are down to $2.82 in Kentwood as I write this.)  So, expect prices to keep falling, probably through the end of August.  I’m not going to be in a hurry to fill up. — Ed A.

Out of the frying pan…

When I agreed to contribute here, I said, “Sure, I can write an post a week!” The market is pushing me towards a daily contribution. The loss of the crude distillation unit at BP Whiting has wreaked havoc on the Midwest markets. As of this post, Chicago CBOB was up 60 cents and RBOB was up 65 cents. Without some crazy market reverses, I don’t see how we will avoid another price hike this week. A simple addition of today’s market increases and today’s spike prices across the Great Lakes region puts us above the $3 mark. If you haven’t topped off yet, today’s spike price may start to look pretty good by mid-morning tomorrow. -TS

Some good news, some bad news

Greetings, everybody. I’m the new guy, Tim. I was recently been asked by TheGasGame to join their group and help out with contributions on gas prices from the Great State of Ohio. I have been tracking gasoline prices in Ohio for several years using the model developed by TheGasGame. I do my best to help people time their gasoline purchase and save money. It’s a real honor to have been invited by Patrick, Ed, and Bill to write here. I look forward to sharing my perspective with you all and hearing back from you, as well.  That’s the good news.

The bad news is that there’s been a large jump in the Chicago CBOB price today. It’s the result of a downed crude distillation unit locate at BP Whiting – one of the largest refineries in the Midwest. CBOB closed UP 28 cents a gallon and RBOB is UP 23 cents a gallon. These new spot prices look to put Indiana under the Spike Line and take a big bite out of the margins in Ohio and Michigan. It’s uncommon for such a large jump to go unnoticed by our friends in Enon, OH. Be prepared for a price hike tomorrow. -TS

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