$3 is almost here

Comment on the June 7 prediction:  Absolutely CORRECT, as prices rose Tuesday to $2.79.

Wednesday, June 10, 2015, 7:15PM:  Just updated my spreadsheets, and over the past two days, wholesale gas prices have shot up 23 cents a gallon.  Despite Tuesday’s hike, with this dramatic move, we are back in price hike territory already, with an estimated price to retailers of $2.78.  Are we headed to $2.99 on Thursday or Friday?  I hope not, but we are seeing prices pushing $3 in Ohio this evening.  So, I’m going to fill up tomorrow morning, and consider this a prediction. –Ed A.

Updated: June 10, 2015 — 7:22 pm

45 Comments

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  1. I just wanted to say I love your website and very thankful that you do this for free to help everyone out. We really appreciate your website and everything you do. 🙂

  2. $61 a barrel oil and already at $3.00. Nice gig if you can get it.

    Of course the issue will not be $3 gas @ 60 but what will be the price of gas when we return to $80 or $100 oil…

    Of course it’s business as usual..

  3. Does anybody NOT THINK we are headed easily for $3.29 and maybe even more?

  4. Sept 2014. Gas inventories were a little lower than today. Gas was $3.39 and oil was $93/barrel. They’ve reset the oil to gas price ratio. If oil hits $100/barrel, you will see $5 gas.

  5. I think GREEDway will be a little hesitant to post prices beginning with a $3. I think (outside of the Chicago area), they’ll reset to $2.999, like they did in nKY today.

  6. ChrisDG74…
    Based on spot prices, there should be about 20 cents less in the dealer cost for the non-Chicago blend than here. The hike here today was only $3.19 (more in Crook county) so your theory might work.

  7. When did oil hit $145 a barrel….late 2008? Anyways I remember when it did, our gas price maxed out at $4.15. Then a few years later with oil “only” hitting $112-$114 a barrel gas went up to $4.21.

    I just got back from vacation in Niagara Falls and Toronto and $2.75 was the highest price I saw on the US side, with most Canadian stations around 1.12 per liter (it looked soooo good seeing a “1” as the first digit again) lol. I had flashbacks of 6 months ago!!

    I call this spike at home while I was gone a failed one as prices only went up 10 cents. Sounds like it won’t stay that way long. At this rate $100 oil will have gas prices at $6 bucks a gallon

  8. It hit $147.50 I want to say July 2008, then it started a rapid fall bottoming around $36 in December of 2008.

  9. Seeing it rising at Speedway stations to $2.99 as of 10am in Indiana (excluding NW) and Michigan. Shoe’s dropped, get it while you can!

  10. Will be interesting to see if Ohio gets it to. We’re surrounded by $2.999. WV,IN,MI, and northern KY are all at $2.999 now.

  11. South Bend Indiana Speedways up 1st, $2.99!! Up .40-.50 this week!

  12. $2.99 creeping into central Indiana now. Topped everything off at $2.64 fortunately. Is there a refinery outage somewhere? Is it those “market forces” at work Ren talks about from time to time? Or could it be a batch of Guatemalan chipmunks have escaped from their cages somewhere? ALL the experts said we’d see a downward trend after Memorial Day…guess they were drunk when they predicted that one!

    Any takers on $3.50 by July 4th or $4 by Labor Day with WTI crude remaining in the $58-$61 range??

  13. You always do the exact opposite of what the expert says, when it comes to ANYTHING involving money. They’re all taking the opposite position of what they propose.

  14. I know, let’s give um another tax break, I’m sure that will help. You’re so right Chris, every time I read where the so called experts say the price will or should go down I cringe because it almost always does the opposite.

  15. I just read the article you linked Sam and that explains why it’s going up now. Prediction for next weeks spike…$3.19 around Indy and areas northward

  16. I managed to get filled up Monday evening for $2.44… so this is a 55 cent raise here where I’m at in Indy since then. Should tax every transaction taking place when people screw around betting money on the commodities market I say. That’d fix it some and stop some of the speculators. SMH, so much oil out there now already.

  17. Never happen Jrunner, they help write the tax laws that are in place now.

  18. Or repeal the Futures and Securities Modernization Act of 2000.
    The oil “traitors” believe their behavior is justified.

    http://investmentwatchblog.com/goldmans-25-trillion-global-oil-scam-discovered/

  19. The Commodoties Modernization Act messed up the price of crude. Did it impact gasoline prices as well? I’m curious what our buddies in Kansas and North Carolina are paying…

  20. Kansas 2.61
    North Carolina 2.66.

  21. I predict $4/gallon by end of summer..screw that!

    $5! At least!

  22. “I predict $4/gallon by end of summer..screw that! $5! At least!”

    Please wager with me on this.

  23. I would take that bet as well Ren, lol! Too much oil out there for that to happen, and a few months of that would cause such an economic slowdown as well as people to cut back on their driving that supply would surge… Not gonna happen where we even sniff close to $4 unless they’re wrong on the hurricane season or half the refineries have major malfunctions all at once

  24. Quote from the midday DTN report (CBOB is down)

    ” The aggressive buying in Chicago CBOB seen over the last few days has failed
    to materialize this morning but could at any time, a marketer told Schneider
    Electric, saying ‘after all, this is Chicago.’ “

  25. From today’s wholesale report: “Chicago gasoline trading cooled with the absence of the trading company who had nearly single-handedly driven Windy City gasoline prices up 22.15cts gal this week.”

    That one trading company can move prices dramatically … that’s the problem.

  26. Speedway’s reset to their handful of sIL tations that do not use the CHicago special formula was only $2.79 a couple days ago, so obviously areas farther east are having a bigger problem with conventional gas.

  27. The refinery excuse. We and California are the only ones who have refinery issues non stop at the same time every year.
    When these traders trade through the International Commodities Exchange in dark markets they can create any crisis they want.
    It isn’t just California, its here too.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq16znUwk5c

  28. Gary…
    And this collusion only goes on in California and the Midwest because ?? Not saying it isn’t so, buy why not in the vast majority of markets? What makes CA and the Midwest susceptible to this happening?

  29. Don’t know about CA but the Midwest is not driven by refinery issues. You could have Godzilla come out of the lake and take out a couple refineries and we will pay $5 or $10 but gas will be available still. You don’t see people waiting in line to buy gas or stations closed now do you?

    It’s Enron 2.0, artificially limit supply by just a bit and play the futures market and watch the money come in.

    In the Midwesr this works because of the market dominance of our friends at Soeedway.

    In other words, the futures games you saw in 2008-2009 with crude are now played in gasoline while crude has been remarkably stable.

  30. But. But. Supply. And demand. But but…… 🙂
    Nevermind. Hasn’t applied since 2000.

  31. Submitted for perspective:

    This is the first time that our prices are noticeably higher than the USA average since late January, early February.

    Supply and demand still rule, even if that truth is inconvenient to one’s blind hatred of corporations…

  32. Do you have proof that supply and demand still rules? Countless times they’ve manipulated supplies and screamed it was demand. A great example was when the southwest leg of the Keystone Pipeline opened. Started having a drawdown at Cushing and they said it was because of demand. What really happened they moved the crude from Cushing to the Golf Coast to open up storage capacity. They don’t keep track of crude inventories on the Gulf. 6 months later Cushing started filling back up.

  33. The refinery issue must have been resolved very quickly as we went from $2.95 to $2.74 in a 36 hour span over the weekend. Enter Tropical Storm Bill now in the Gulf Coast…oh boy

  34. Back to relevant, actual news, here’s an interesting article that suggests EIA is underestimating oil demand, by about 1.2 million barrels of oil today.

    This is leading to a mismatch between production, demand, and inventory estimates, and also artificially low oil prices.

    http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/06/16/ieas-missing-barrels-may-take-a-bite-out-of-crude-supply-glut/#29569101=0

    Bottom line, they need to figure out a way to better estimate these numbers.

  35. They only track oil inventories based upon what is in Cushing. Not sure how they are tracking but now a company called Genscape is tracking it video cameras.

    On the gas supply demand side, demand was determined by polling 6000 gas stations out of 150,000 something gas stations in the US. Thats small polling data.

  36. So, is the EIA prepping us for another price increase due to “different estimates of demand” being used? Right on time for July 4?

    I have seen pro wrestling matches that were less orchestrated…

    Now, about tropical storm Bill… Any thoughts?

  37. ^And a quick shift back from real news to pointless conspiracy theories completely bereft of logic.

    What could have been. *sigh*

  38. Gary, actually 6,000/150,000 would be plenty enough in the science of statistics.

    In political polling, a representative sample of about 1,000 voters is typically used to to estimate the sentiments of tens of millions of voters, providing reasonable accuracy within a pretty small margin of error.

  39. With small numbers like that you can pick and chose your audience and skew your outcome. We have seen polls come out that didn’t agree with the masses and people said, they never asked me.
    If those 6000 gas stations were in Texas with a large population compared to gas stations in Kentucky, sure demand is going to look larger. Where the stations were polled was never disclosed. Were they Speedway stations? We know their shady practices. If the polls were taken there, its definitely off.
    We know and have seen poll numbers fudged. We’ve yet to see anything honest come out of the oil industry. Why start now? They can make them numbers do what they want….thanks to the future and securities modernization act of 2000.

    When they poll 60,000 gas stations, I might be more convinced.

  40. At the end of the day, a lot of this “estimates” stuff is out the window, since with so many refineries recently that have had major issues, the midwest hasn’t been able to meet supply demands as it is. We’ve always had that issue. The price has been correlating to what the spot price for gasoline has been going for, but I just keep thinking that marathon must be “raking it in” since they seemingly haven’t had many issues and yet have been the ones to reset the prices. They’ve been getting the benefits of the extra refining profits due to oil being low AND charge the max. Pretty sure their 2nd quarter will be record breaking. Now enough of this, and lets wait for the inventory report today to see whether the midwest gasoline suppy has recovered, or whether the majority of us go over $3 in the next 30 hours…

  41. Back to an intellectual discussion here with facts and evidence. I’ve grown tired of the conspiracy talk and such.

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