Might As Well Jump … Might As Well Jump

Sunday, May 17, 2015, 8:00PM:  Chicago CBOB found its way up to practically $2 a gallon on Friday, leading to a price-to-retailers of $2.63, according to my calculations.  With west Michigan retail prices in the $2.51-$2.69 range right now, and with the hike in Indiana to $2.75 this past Thursday, might as well fill up on Monday morning, because you can see a price hike is coming this week.  $2.79 or higher?

Updated: May 17, 2015 — 7:51 pm


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  1. Naaaaaahhhhhhh–last couple spikes have been at least 30 cents/gallon! Might as well blast the $3-per barrier and not look back!

    $3.05-$3.09 in the Toledo, OH area no later than Wednesday morning. (Lots of stations have backed-off to the low $2.69s, though the usual lower-priced zones are as low as the high $2.20s, if you want to drive clear across town!)

  2. I’m looking for a spike on Thursday the 21st to $2.89 for stations in the Muncie-Anderson area as some have now drifted back in the the high $2.50’s. Hoping for a price slide to start shortly after Memorial Day and continue for awhile

  3. In Cincinnati you can still find some ‘bargains’ in the low to mid $2.40s North and North East of town. Most other places are still in the low to mid-$2.60s with a handful of upper $2.50s along the way. I’m looking for a repeat of last week’s PITuesday only with a spike of $2.79.

  4. I’d say 2.79 in La Porte County…..2.89-2.99 in Lake/Porter Counties. Family Express will probably start those spikes either on Monday night or Tuesday night.

  5. Uhhh! Becky? Better make that $2.89.

  6. $2.799 spike underway in Ohio.

  7. Sometimes that would indicate 10 cents higher for Indiana and Michigan. Putting 2 of the 3 states within a dime of $3. Well 10.1 cents

  8. I’m seeing 2.79’s starting to show up in all of the major markets in Lower Michigan.

  9. Yeah 2.799 in Kazoo area now. Setting us up for 2.999 next weekend. First big travel weekend of the summer..

  10. You do realize that THIS weekend is Memorial Day, right? Not next weekend.

    The spikes have come weekly, but inevitably people will insist that THIS WEEK’S spike HAS TO BE a holiday spike, because those did occur a long time ago, and it’s hard for some people to change their thinking when circumstances evolve.

    Supply and demand still rule, no matter how painful it is for some to admit it.

  11. Niles, MI spike started last night to $2.79.
    South Bend IN still creeping down $2.53-2.75 ($2.61 avg)

  12. Midwest is down about 1 million barrels on the inventory this week, reformulated gas in even shorter supply (especially in Chicago area)… prices are going to go up folks! I’d find my way over to your nearest low priced station in Indy/Indiana today or early tomorrow morning at the latest if I were you though. Last to spike means we’ll probably get $2.79 or $2.85 by Friday out of this situation if the $2.79 jump yesterday in MI and OH is any indication.

  13. My 40+ years in Indiana, I have seen that when it comes to prices, wether for cable, furniture, food, gasoline, anything; there is very little varriation in pricing. When we jump, it will all get accomplished in less than 4 hours. In Fort Wayne, it will all happen in 2 hours or less. Amazing how fast seemingly independant behavior runs so lockstep. And there is one advantage in waiting till Thursday. I don’t know if the retailers are thinking of it, but who knows. If they wait till Thursday, it would be easier to keep the price higher all through the long weekend. Too few days to have to fall from the high. Not accusing, it’s just there.

  14. Greedway trolls….. got to love um..

  15. Being the skeptic that I am we are still halfway into the week. Plenty of time for Wall Street & Chicago to bid oil and gas up and more than enough time to pancake another spike at the pump.

    Supply and demand? I remember it well.

  16. William Marshall

    $2.999 in Crown Point this morning. Family Express leading the pack.

  17. Muncie stations are down to $2.51. Will they for the big 38 cent spike and take it to $2.89 tomorrow, or will they be “gentle” and only raise it to $2.79?

    Usually within 36 hours, gas stations in Delaware County start to trickle back down. Something tells me the trickle won’t start until next Tuesday. Hmmmmmm I think there might be a holiday in there somewhere 🙂

  18. Ren you can take your “supply and demand” big oil theory and throw it out the window. We have had and still do have, the biggest supply of oil in years and we still have price hikes. It always has and will always be driven by speculation on the market.

  19. Supply and demand hasn’t worked since 2000.
    Remember 2008, when oil prices doubled in the first 6 months and gas hit $4.19?
    Supply went up and demand went down during that time.

    http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2013/03/world-liquid-fuels-supply-and-demand.html – first chart

  20. If there is a downfall of one million barrels of inventory in the midwest, in a climate of cheap oil, there is only one reason, To deplete supply and drive up the cost, at least temporarily. So supply and demand works, when you can control either one of them artifically. It’s not the whole picture, but a big part of it.

  21. Looks like the Speedway cycling finally hit Indy/rest of Indiana (ft wayne, south bend, muncie, etc) this morning. $2.79 is the new set price we’re going to from the looks of it.

  22. XOM Joliet is partially down, Citgo is about to do maintenance at Lemont, Husky in Lima, OH is partially down, Phillips 66 in Wood River is down for maintenance. You guys realize that for once these hikes are only pennies over the national average? Usually it shoots the region to +10 to +25.

    And RBOB is in short supply with XOM out for Chicagoland/Hammond/Milwaukee are seeing bigger hikes.

    Anyone citing 2007/2008 prices- you fail to realize how close demand was to outpacing supply. Of course that’ll cause insane oil prices.

  23. And all that maintenance is right at the beginning of the high demand season for gasoline. Let’s just say the peanut gallery has its doubts.

  24. Patrick…
    Yes, probably looking at $3.15 & $3.25 tomorrow in Chicagoland for the 2nd hike in 3 days. Thanks for the info on the other refineries – had only seen about XON.

  25. Let’er rip. My Honda Fit is burning around $100/month in gasoline, maybe $20-22 a week.

  26. Mike in Kalamazoo

    Well I will eat crow now and say that I was wrong. I really thought that Greedway would stick it to use this weekend. So far that hasn’t happened. Sure glad I was wrong and will proudly eat that crow.

  27. Yeah, I was sure that gas would hardly drop the whole weekend in the Fort Wayne area. Turns out in my kneck of the woods, it was a whole 10 cents down to $2.69 by early on Memorial day. Nice being wrong (BG)

  28. So what happens now? tues spike as per recent pattern? or change it up to thursday? Either way, we’ll be knocking on 3.00 at this point in the ratchet-up cycle.
    Ready the Kroger points and contemplate that game of chicken… Seems to be the order of the day.

  29. If previous years are any indicator, in a few weeks we should begin the long drawn out retreat of about 45 to 65 cents to end up close to $2.00 give or take. Personally, my guess is 50/50 as to wether we top out at about $3.25 first, and drop to only $2.65 or so. It kind of seams as though now that the Saudis have gotten rid of a lot of our domestic production, they will cut supply again, just to keep us into the low to mid $3.00. Just a guess.

  30. Seems to me we’ve been running on an 8 day spike sale for the past couple of weeks (correct me if I’ve wrong- would put MI/OH/NW IN/Louisville tomorrow and Indy/IN Fri… or they just settle on a Thurs spike for all?). I personally think we have at least one more spike wed-fri in us unless that wholesale/spot starts coming down and the refineries in Chicago start chugging along better, then the long slow drop so long as some other refinery issues don’t pop up (and I especially am always hopeful the marathon refineries chug along since they generally control the market via speedway). My two cents.

  31. Mike in Kalamazoo…
    Been following Speedway for 10 years probably and never seen a hike on a holiday weekend. Plenty of hikes just before, but not during. PR is just too bad. We had a hike last Tuesday in Chicagoland, one was warranted on Friday (by Speedway’s pricing model) and one was practically demanded on Saturday but they waited until today.

  32. RBOB (Chicagoland/NW Indiana/SE Wisc) took a tumble today as part of a wider exodus from oil commodities. Declines could be seen in this area in the next 48-72 hours as stations gain access to cheaper RBOB (down 16c/gal).

    CBOB saw a 8c/gal decline. That should leave most areas with decent breathing room. Usually June sees declines at the pump, and it may be that gas prices have just peaked for the summer.

    But beware, Citgo will be partially down at least until July. They’ve not been seen as a seller lately in the Chicago market, likely as they grow gasoline inventories ahead of the maintenance. That has contributed to the bullish atmosphere in the region. XOM should be coming back soon, no word on latest developments.

  33. Jim – Yeah I was really thinking we would get one on the Thursday before the holiday weekend. A two for one week for hikes. Sure like it when I’m wrong in the right kind of way…

  34. Had a GREEDway (yes, I will always use that name) drop 13 cents overnight, to $2.55. Usually the Kroger a block away drops first. They’re still $2.68. If we didn’t currently have an 80 cent spot/retail spread in Ohio, I’d say we’d be spiking today.

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