Hoping for No March Madness

Sunday, March 15, 2015, 2:00PM:  After wholesale prices jacked up on Monday, and then retail on Tuesday, they have been slowly dropping.  In fact, in Fort Wayne, they never saw a spike.  But I am concerned about this upcoming week.  As indicated in this article, the big refinery in Whiting, Indiana is having some serious problems.  This could cause wholesale prices to bounce around more than usual, which means quick hikes (and slow drops).  What we have working in our favor is that oil prices are in trouble again, back to the multi-year lows they hit in January.  So, my strategy this week is to fill up more than usual, when I see some low prices, and hope for no March madness. — Ed A.

Updated: March 15, 2015 — 2:15 pm

10 Comments

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  1. I’m going to go with Tuesday hike. Monday, the switch to 9.0 RVP will be hitting the market causing spot to go up, so I believe that’ll lead to a Tuesday hike. Amount TBD.

  2. CBOB up 10c/gal, RBOB up 18c/gal as we roll to 9.0psi RVP

  3. Just an academic question… The issue at BP Whiting was described as a process that should have gone no higher than 6% cat made it 20-80% and caused bad things… Aren’t there automated systems that can catch such things in a multi-billion dollar refinery?

  4. Chicago CBOB now up 13.5c/gal, RBOB up 21c/gal

  5. I just filled up in Lafayette for $1.91. Almost felt like Christmas!

  6. Oil closes at a 6-month low, yet with wholesale being so high, we aren’t anywhere near a 6-year low at the pump. Paid $1.44 in se Ohio March 2009.

  7. Oil at 6-year, not 6-month.

  8. Chris,

    Looking at historical data, I see Ohio’s state average between $1.86-$2.00 in March, 2009. That $1.44 likely represents a retailer with an extreme negative margin and shouldn’t be used to benchmark today’s price, just how any extreme (high or low) is irrelevant many times and is not a good way to compare to past dates.

    Either way, fill up today, as tomorrow we could see $2.59-$2.69/gal

  9. 2.69 with crude below $44? I am impressed 🙂

  10. Perhaps. Maybe I was just lucky, twice. I got gas in Cincy for close to the same price a day or two before that.
    Either way, $1.86 is a far cry from the $2.599-$2.699 we’re going to see in the next day or two, with oil at a comparable price.

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