Comment on Monday’s prediction: Yup, prices rose to $2.49. CORRECT!
Wednesday, March 18, 2015, 6:30PM: I can’t believe this is the third time in a week that I need to post an update. It seems to be a hot mess at the BP refinery in Whiting, which is a key source of distilled gasoline in the Midwest, and Chicago-based wholesale prices have gone insane. Last Thursday it was $1.49 a gallon. Right now, $1.85. I’m pretty sure we are looking at another price hike on Thursday, to the neighborhood of $2.69 in Michigan. Vernal equinox bleah!!! –Ed A.
Monday, March 16, 2015, 6:30PM: And there we go, as Chicago wholesale prices jump 14 cents today, and we move into price hike territory. A hike to at least $2.49 on Tuesday is more likely than Kentucky winning the NCAA’s. — Ed A.
Sunday, March 15, 2015, 2:00PM: After wholesale prices jacked up on Monday, and then retail on Tuesday, they have been slowly dropping. In fact, in Fort Wayne, they never saw a spike. But I am concerned about this upcoming week. As indicated in this article, the big refinery in Whiting, Indiana is having some serious problems. This could cause wholesale prices to bounce around more than usual, which means quick hikes (and slow drops). What we have working in our favor is that oil prices are in trouble again, back to the multi-year lows they hit in January. So, my strategy this week is to fill up more than usual, when I see some low prices, and hope for no March madness. — Ed A.
Monday, March 9, 2015, 8:00PM: OK, something weird is going on with Chicago wholesale prices today, with prices there soaring 17 cents a gallon due to “aggressive buying by a refiner”. Maybe someone is just messing with us here at the Gas Game, but I have to rescind my weekend prediction. So, sorry, WOOD radio. We could get a hike tomorrow … or not. -Ed A.
Comment on the February 25 prediction: Here in Michigan, it was CORRECT — prices rose as predicted.
Saturday, March 7, 2015, 3:00PM: By the end of January, oil had fallen below $50 a barrel, and wholesale gas (Chicago CBOB) was around $1.40. Then, in February, oil attempted to rally, and got as high as $53 on a closing basis. Gasoline got excited, as it usually does in February, with CBOB jumping to $1.65, leading to retail prices like $2.49. However, after the past week, we are back to the “under $50/around $1.40” pricing, and that opens up an opportunity for retail prices to fall to $2.19. In fact, you can get gas for $2.14 this afternoon in Lowell! Elsewhere, prices in the $2.30’s should be coming down over the next several days, and I can’t see any price hike on the horizon. — Ed A.
Howdy all, I’ve updated the refinery status page to reflect refineries that have changed hands and updated owner information, capacity, etc. I’ve also updated the status information based on the latest information known, and the icons of the refinery tell the story- red, yellow, or green. This can be found under FEATURES on the top menu bar, or I’ve embedded it below.