A nice two weeks … will it continue?

Comment on the September 3 prediction:  Prices rose as predicted, with $3.69 in Michigan, which is close enough for a CORRECT.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014, 9:00PM:  We’ve had a nice two weeks of falling prices.  Significant drops in the price of oil has been the biggest factor, but also of note is that ethanol prices have taken a real dive since Labor Day.  Since ethanol only make up 10% of what is coming out of the pumps, that isn’t going to have a big effect on retail prices (based on my new on-going study), but it looks like it has taken a few cents off of the pump price.  I estimate the cost-to-retailers tonight to be in the low $3.20’s, which is the retail price in Lowell and Wyoming.  So, we have a good chance for a hike tomorrow, to $3.49.  But I am not sure, though, because sometimes when we have falling prices like we have this month, the retail price will drop lower than expected first.  So, since I am getting low on gas, I am going to fill up on Thursday, but for now — no firm prediction. –Ed A.

Updated: September 17, 2014 — 8:45 pm

11 Comments

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  1. Ed,

    Do you look at Admiral gas stations when your checking out prices? The only reason I ask is because the station here in Ionia was at $3.18 this morning and they had a line of cars, which I see when prices look like they are going up, but maybe they will stay low? The admiral in Ionia is usually our indicator of price changes. They block up 66!

  2. That is true Carl, I work in Ionia and both Admiral and Meijer dropped .10 yesterday from 3.28 to 3.18. That is usual suspect of a spike impending!

  3. Robert: I agree. Many times there is a sudden 5, 8 or 10 cent drop at some stations the evening before or morning of a spike. Around here, it isn’t Meijer, but BP, or Shell, or a cople Marathons.

  4. South Bend, IN Admiral down to $3.17 today, rest of that area of town down to ~$3.26. $2.97 on S. Side gas war with new WMT station. Granger gouging still at $3.35. I filled up for $3.17 🙂

  5. Fort Wayne still has a preponderance of upper $3.3x. Nobody cheaper than $3.26

  6. So, if we use $3.23 as a reasonable benchmark for retail cost, and most people in the Indy area (except the lucky ducks that are in the low price zones) are paying $3.25-3.30 before the spike, and we spike to $3.50, what have we accomplished? Some stations in the low zone prices will be losing maybe a dime a gallon but everyone else is still making money even at the lower prices.

    Still not a bad deal, all things considered. Nearly 40mpg is your friend 🙂

  7. As low as $3.07 in Greenville as I type. $3.11 in Lowell at a Mobil on Lincoln Lake and at I96/M50/Alden Nash exit.
    Saudis are whimpering and simpering. Read of a massive oil/NG find on the Alberta/British Columbia border that would give Canada all the NG they need for 146 years at current estimates. Interesting read…http://oilprice.com

  8. Indy’s average is $3.26 — the lowest it’s been since early February.

  9. Same in Cincy. 3.24 – lowest since mid-February. It won’t last though. The spread between retail and wholesale is getting too small(67 cents in Ohio). While a reset may be warranted(we can debate that until the cows come home), Speedway, as always, will WAY overdo it.

  10. Carl: I can’t figure out the on-going gas price war along M-21 from Ada to Ionia. In terms of a price hike signal, they are so often selling under cost that I haven’t found it useful. Prices in Standale, along my commute to work, seem to fit my analysis better.

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