Comment on the July 14 prediction: We got a hike, but not until Thursday the 17th, as prices fell hard that week. I’m not going to complain, but I was quite WRONG in my prediction.
Saturday, July 26, 2014, 9:00PM: It’s been a mild summer, weather-wise, and gas price-wise. Is there a connection? I don’t know, but let’s figure out the playbook for the coming week. Using a Chicago CBOB price (i.e., a wholesale price without taxes, etc.) on Friday afternoon of $2.64 a gallon, that translates to a price-to-retailers of about $3.32 a gallon. That calculated price is about what the retail price needs to be to trigger a hike. Here is the Grand Rapids area, we are down to $3.32 in Sparta, but mostly in the $3.40’s elsewhere. So, if wholesale prices are stable, I think we’ll see retail prices drift down in the $3.30’s, followed by a hike on Wednesday or Thursday back to around $3.65 (the price at the last hike). If wholesale price drop, then we might not get a hike, but if those prices rise, we definitely will. Too early to make a solid prediction, so this is just a commentary. –Ed A.