Month: May 2014

Hi, remember me?

When I started writing here on April 20th, 2009 I had a good situation for posting. My job was tech support in the evenings, so I could post about a spike when I saw it in the morning at home, and gather numbers and post them at night on the job during slow times. In September, my son was born, and he took a little of my day time, but the job at night still allowed me to post. That night job switched to day in 2010. In 2012 we added a daughter, and I moved to another job, this time delivering for a courier service. Free time to do this has greatly diminished.

I’ve tried to keep up the Today in Oil and Spike Line pages, but some days that doesn’t happen. In the case of the Today in Oil page, I post most information the next available moment, as I did for Thursday and Friday’s numbers today. I have not posted out here in quite a while.

As this kids grow older, and hopefully I get a better job within the company, free time will open up, and I’ll be able to devote more of my time to better analysis here, and posting more about what I see on gas prices. Until then, I will continue to do what I can to contribute. I have automated most of what I do, so it takes 20 minutes normally. I even have begun updating the charts more often by automating most of that. I also changed the colors. They used to reflect universities (Indy=Butler, Indiana=IU, Michigan=UM, and Ohio=OhioU) now they reflect pro teams (Indy=Colts, Indiana=Pacers, Michigan=Pistons, Ohio=Bengals/Browns) with Today in Oil switching to SWMU colors.

On the good news front, I crunched some data and historically May is the most expensive month for gas in Indiana going back to 2009. The trend can be seen in the graph below. Note, 2009 and 2010 seem to be outliers, and they are because of the economy being in depression at the time. But I included them because taking them out didn’t change the trend on the average.

Monthly Average Trend in Indiana

Will we see gas trending down for the rest of the year? That is what the numbers show. Let’s hope we don’t have a repeat of 2012.

$3.999, here we come

Comment on the May 21 posting:  I got lucky, filling up before the hike to $3.89.  But, no prediction, no grade.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014, 7:45PM:  I’ve said this before — gas pricing has gotten more aggressive to the upside in the past year or so, with hikes coming sooner, and larger margins.  Working out my calculations this evening, we are in the place where lately we get a hike.  And, lo and behold, the price has already rose to $3.99 in Indiana today.  Hard to imagine anything different in Michigan and elsewhere on Thursday.  $3.999, here we come. — Ed A.

Will They Bother?

Comment on the May 4 prediction:   Prices rose that Tuesday to $3.79, as CORRECTly predicted.  We had another hike last week, again to $3.79.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014, 7:00AM:  Other than that temporary ethanol effect, wholesale gas prices haven’t changed much for two months now, which is pretty amazing, particularly for the spring.  That’s why we’ve wandering around in the $3.59-$3.89 area for gas prices since early March.  We are back to the bottom of that range in places like Allendale, Cedar Springs, Sparta, and Lowell, but higher elsewhere.  Will Speedway and her friends bother to re-set to $3.79 again today or tomorrow, or let the holiday weekend play out with lower prices?  My friend Patrick at GasBuddy has been saying all week that we’ll get a hike.  I’m going pass on making a prediction, though, but I will fill up in Allendale today. — Ed A.

Planning on filling up Monday morning

Comment on the April 21 prediction:  Prices rose exactly as predicted.  CORRECT.

Sunday, May 4, 2014, 9:30PM:  The ethanol pricing problem is history (for now), and prices have been dropping the past week, except for some screwy jumps in Ohio.  We are getting to the point where retail prices are about the same as what the retailers are paying, which means a price hike is on the horizon, perhaps as soon as Monday.  Back to $3.79? –EA (c) 2017 Frontier Theme