Comment on the March 19 prediction: With the price hike on Saturday to $3.79, this one turned out to be WRONG.
Wednesday, March 26, 2014, 7:15AM: I am still scratching my head about Saturday’s price re-set to $3.79. Here was my calculation on Saturday morning: estimated wholesale price: $2.71. Add in taxes and transportation, and the price to retailers was $3.39. Typically, when a price hike occurs, the new price is about 20 cents higher than that, which gives us $3.59. Now, retail prices on Friday night were about $3.59, so I would expect no hike. Instead, $3.79 was 40 cents higher than the price to retailers. That’s just weird. Now, this morning, you can buy gas for $3.59 at the Marathon at Burton and Kalamazoo, but there are still a lot of places in the upper $3.70’s. Unless we have just seen a dramatic change in retail gas pricing behavior, it is an easy prediction that gas prices will continue to fall for the next several days. –EA
Wednesday, March 19, 2014, 6:15PM: Nice drop today in wholesale prices, so we should see some relief at the pumps through the weekend (unless wholesale prices jump back up on Thursday). I’ll predict lower prices at least until Monday. –Ed A.
Comment on the February 26 prediction: It was absolutely CORRECT, as prices rose the next day to $3.75. I’ve missed the past two prices hikes, though (3/5 and 3/12).
Sunday, March 16, 2004, 3:30PM: Let’s step back and look at the past several months. Retail gas prices have gone from $3.79 at the end of August to $3.03 (in Standale) at the beginning of December, and now in mid-March, we are back to $3.79. This has been pretty typical price behavior for the autumn and winter, although the weekly jumps since the beginning of February have been a bit harsh. What’s next? In 2012 and 2013, prices topped out in March and then stayed stable for a few months, and in the past two weeks, wholesale gas (and oil) prices have calmed. So, let’s hope we’ll stay below $4 a gallon at least until the summer. But let’s not call that a prediction. — Ed A.