Expecting a trick, not a treat, at the gas pump

Comment on the October 23 prediction:  We only got down to $3.09 on Alpine, which means I was a bit too optimistic, and WRONG.

Monday, October 28, 2013, 7:00PM:  Wholesale gas prices have jumped 17 cents since last Wednesday (thank you, refinery fire), and we are at the point where the retail price is pretty much the same as the price retailers are paying to fill their own tanks.  So, we are getting the trick instead of the treat, on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Estimated new price:  $3.45 a gallon. –Ed Aboufadel

Updated: October 28, 2013 — 6:46 pm

33 Comments

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  1. Thanks for the predictions on this site sir. You save me upwards of between .25 to .45 cents per gallon and love how we all can stick it to big oil and Greedway.

  2. Wait, what does any of this have to do with “Big Oil?” Especially when “Big Government” makes more profit on a gallon of gas than anybody else does.

  3. Gas is going up to $3.45 today in grand rapids

  4. 3.399 in Ohio

  5. CHicago spot prices today lost most of what they gained (vs the NYMEX) right after the fire.

  6. No surprise. Oftentimes spikes occur right before a drop in crude (or refined in this case), just to ensure the serfs are paying the head tax to the Crown…

  7. Spot drops to 2.38 and Greedway spikes to 3.39 in Ohio.
    WTF??

  8. I have the urge to do an impersonation… “My cost for today is…, aw, why not” 🙂

  9. This was a weird spike, but actually a good one. The local Greedway goes from $3.29 to $3.39, meanwhile the Pilot doesn’t budge from its $3.29. Greedway lowers theres right back to $3.29 and at the same time Pilot jumps to $3.35. Well another 12 hours goes by and EVERYONE lowers to $3.27. Now wouldn’t it be nice if every “spike” resulted in a little drop like this! A nice change from the usual .30 cent jumps.

  10. Thankfully this spike failed miserably in my parts.
    Following my commute, only ONE BP spiked. One Greedway TRIED, but had to come right back down the next morning. As of 6:30am today, I could have still filled up for $3.079.

  11. Well they still have us bent over just west of Kalamazoo. Still 3.45 this morning. Thank you so much Greedway.

  12. Plenty of stations elsewhere in the city spiked. The average according to gasbuddy is 3.32.

  13. I kid you not:
    A half mile from my house, I can get gas for $2.999.

  14. ^Yeah, Speedway managed to pull some of the stations up with them during this last spike, but there were definitely a fair number that didn’t join in.

  15. In Fort Wayne and the parts of Indiana that I am familiar with, Speedway (and Lassus) did just fine. Not a single station didn’t raise their prices and keep them there for a full 5 days.

  16. GMA this morning reporting national average is $3.25 and is expected to fall through the rest of the year and 34 states reporting at least one gas station with price below $3.00 a gallon. Given the day of the month that it is [11/4/13], my next bet is falling prices till just before Thanksgiving – yep, just in time for the holiday.

  17. The prices in the Greedway states is the reason the national average is not already close to 3.00 a gallon

  18. Mike: I’m not going to take that bet against you. We’ve all seen it happen too many times. If some refinery has a fire, we could all get TWO hikes by the end of the month. One for the fire and one for Thanksgiving.

  19. “The problem is that refiners have lowered the amount of fuel they keep on hand, and short-term disturbances — like a storm or fire that throws a refinery off line — have an immediate impact.”

    http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/04/21305693-gas-prices-headed-down-but-drivers-frustrated-by-volatility?lite

  20. Soooo there is a fire at a CITGO Refinery in Illinois and I see some of the lowest price stations in West Michigan are Citgo stations. WUD UP wid all dat? (I know its complicated and Citgo stations here may or may not be actually selling Citgo refined fuels…)
    Just wondering out loud…

  21. $2.939 on the way in to work today. I am enjoying having the cheapest gas in sw Ohio along my commute.

  22. Hmmm. Flint MI area has hit a 3.12ish plateau for 72 hrs, whereas speedway stations 25 miles south of here were at 3.01
    on wed. My shenanigans sense is tingling….
    Kinda seems to be shaping up for classic holding pattern, where they flirt with the 3 dollar mark w/o below, before a monday spike, maybe a 1-2 punch to keep things in the profit rich mid high 3’s
    (I mean geez, same thing with little caesars, cant even get the 4.99 deal here, 15 miles south of town? no problemo.)

  23. Spot still at 2.30. Unless is spikes today, I don’t see anything Monday.

  24. Has it been 10 days yet ChrisDG74? Greedway can rarely go longer than 10 days without spiking, so I’d expect we’ll see one next week REGARDLESS if Chicago Spot continues to drop.

  25. Is it possible? Sure. However, with the miserable failure that the last spike attempt ended up being, when spot was HIGHER, I just don’t see it happening.
    Now, of course, were a refinery to magically catch fire over the weekend, all bets are off.

  26. $2.879 a half-mile from my house right now.

  27. Chicago spot prices jumped more than a nickel today on good economic news, presumably bringing the next spike closer in some markets at least.

  28. speedway @ 2.96 in waterford MI

  29. Who says the last spike didn’t hold? They must not live in Indiana. Here in Fort Wayne, it held SOLID for 5 days till they started dropping of the spike high. Stations here are still above the $3.0X range. What the heck was the good economic news? Hiring rate kept up with birth rate this time? Finally?

  30. I have to change my earlier prediction. I think we WILL see a spike Tuesday, to $3.259. Retail has dropped like a rock in Ohio. The average is $3.07, with a lot under $3.00. It’s $2.85 in my neighborhood. That’s a 14 cent drop in 6 days.

  31. Spot prices jumped ANOTHER 5.81&cent today. I’d expect a hike in many Speedway markets tomorrow. It’s a near 100% certainty here in the Chicago market.

  32. Chris and Jim: I’m in agreement with you, and ready for a new post.

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