Spike line adjustments
21 comments Thursday, 01-31-13 | Posted By Bill | Predictions
My last correct prediction of a spike was back on 11/19/12. Nothing in my methods or formulas have changed, but something is different. I’ve checked into taxes and fees, but I don’t see any new ones for Indiana, Michigan, or Ohio.
That said, I have to do something to get back to being correct on predictions. So I went back, fiddled with the numbers, and came up with this. I will start adding 10¢ to Indy/Indiana, and 15¢ to Michigan. With this addition, I would have predicted correctly all but one Spike in both states since 11/19/12. I did not change Ohio because the prediction for today’s spike there was correct, and the two previous spikes there were very close to being predicted, so an adjustment would not be wise until I see where they go.
That said, here’s what today’s numbers would be with the additional “prediction fee”:
Spike Line Statistics for 1/31/2013
| ($USD) | Indy, Indiana, Michigan |
| Chicago Spot | $2.8332 |
| Change | UP $0.0523 |
| USA Average | $3.391 |
| ($USD) | Indy | Indiana | Michigan | Ohio |
| Taxes and Fees | $0.7923 | $0.7923 | $0.8450 | $0.5940 |
| Rack Adjustment | -$0.0433 | -$0.0433 | -$0.0366 | $0.0549 |
| Spike Line Price | $3.5822 | $3.5822 | $3.6416 | $3.4821 |
| Average | $3.5660 | $3.5470 | $3.5440 | $3.5510 |
| Spike Line Deviation | -$0.0162 | -$0.0352 | -$0.0976 | $0.0689 |
| Suggestion | SPIKE | SPIKE | SPIKE | WATCH |
Could a spike be in our future? We already had one this week, on an odd day, too since Tuesday and Thursday are the typical spike days. Two in one week are pretty rare, too. But as the market soars, so too will our prices rise. Be on the lookout for a spike in the next couple days unless the market takes a dive.
21 Responses to “Spike line adjustments”
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- Wholesale prices climbing again. Looks like $3.99 on Tuesday. –EA
- Thurs is historically the favorite day for Big Red & Co. I am anticipating a hike back to $3.89 and I will fill up tomorrow morning.- Ed A.
- Prices should be on the rise. More info: http://t.co/ZoM4g5serk
- While a spike should happen, I've been wrong before. For more: http://t.co/CBHYbjylD9
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New Price in Traverse City, MI is 3.75….over 4.00 in Feb?
Surprisingly, Greedway was not the first to spike in Waterford
YEP – - jumping to $3.75 in GR, too – - Speedway leading the hike!!!
That means sw Ohio will see that today or tomorrow. I warned everyone Monday of TWO spikes coming this week.
Hard to believe I paid $2.939 ON TUESDAY!
3.75 in Kalamazoo too…
Am seeing a couple stations at $3.65 with most of the “highs” at $3.59. Will top-off this afternoon @ $3.49 on the way home.
$3.75 for Speedway in Fort Wayne. The usuals holding out for a couple hours.
Good. The faster we get to $4.00 or $4.25 by end of winter and from there to $4.50+ in ‘high demand’ season the faster the feeble minded ‘free market’ believers will realize it’s all about as real as Pro Wrestling.
I love watching my local Greedway jump $1 in 30 days, NOT.
You mean rasslin’s not real?
Noooooooooooooooooooooo!
Yep, third spike in just one week. WOW unbelieveable. Maybe next week there will be only 2 spikes. I’m sure our all time high of $4.21 will be broken this year. I’m going to pay over $2000 more in taxes this year and now this gas spike BS.
Maybe we’ll get another economic crash like in 2008 now.
“Maybe we’ll get another economic crash like in 2008 now.”
And hopefully that clown, Helicopter Ben Bernanke, will let everything settle, in its rightful place, instead of re-inflating bubbles with all of his money printing(which is one reason we’re paying so much)….
But, I doubt it.
Oh we’re going to blow the $4.21 away. Possibly by the end of February with this trend continuing. All of this progressing to $4.00 being the new $3.00.
Notice the SILENCE about gas prices by the complicit press? Overall prices are double and rising since Obama took office and now rising even higher, nothing about this from the national media.
Bill: I am seeing the same thing with my methodology. They have successfully pushed up margins.
during obama, the foreign oil import loered by ~40% how should that increase price? i never understand it when the price of crude oil is going down, the price at pump goes up!
With spot up another 8 cents today, I wonder if we’ll see a FOURTH spike in 2 weeks, on Monday or Tuesday…
It’s going up faster than Greedway can keep up.
I put 13 gallons of gas in my lawn mower/weed eater/chainsaw cans less than two weeks ago at $3.05 because I knew the “glory days” wouldn’t last. Gosh that seems just like yesterday. Oh wait….IT WAS!!!
Indiana went from ranking 32nd in gas prices earlier this month to currently ranking 7th. What are we now the California of the midwest?? Jumpin Jesus this is out of control!!
Indiana is now 5th highest in the nation. Maybe by next week we’ll overtake Hawaii for the number one spot!! Isn’t it just great
It is not a surprise. I have been seeing people fill up at Greedway for 30-40 cents more per gallon rather than go across the street to a lower priced retailer. Then, to complete the circle, they go inside for some overpriced sugar water and lottery tickets. They accept as fact that a 1% or 2% rise in crude translates to a 10% rise at the pump. They worship the ‘free markets’ and loath the politicians for not doing anything (while loathing any kind of sensible market regulation). Then, for good measure, they loath the (corporate owned) press for covering it up.
They want their “free” Speedy Freezes.
No hike in SW Ohio yet. Guess they’re waiting until Monday.