New Year, New Game?

Wednesday, January 2, 2013, 7:20PM:  Happy New Year!  Over the last few years, we’ve pointed out a pattern of gas prices being in line with stock prices.  This made sense as financiers create more and more instruments to trade gas and oil like stocks.  Lately, though, there has been a disconnect, and we’ve seen it this week.  The stock market soared Monday on expectation that Congress would agree on a “fiscal cliff” law, and then today after the law was passed.  Yet, wholesale gas prices actually have gone down a dime this week so far.  So, unless wholesale prices decide to play catch-up tomorrow, I’m expecting gas prices to continue to slide at least until Monday. — Ed Aboufadel

Posted in Commentary, Predictions
29 comments on “New Year, New Game?
  1. ChrisDG74 says:

    Spot settled up 3 cents from the lows in the last few hours
    I feel a jump tomorrow, making up today’s losses, and then some.

  2. Chris says:

    Interesting how the correlation between WTI Crude and Chicago Spot prices work.

    October 1st…Crude at $92.48 with spot at $3.06
    Yesterday……Crude at $93.12 with spot at $2.34

    I’m not sure if it’s accurate or not, but I just saw a station on gasbuddy.com that has an Anderson, IN station listing a $3.69/gallon price while the rest are significantly lower.

    DROP SPOT DROP!!!!

  3. ChrisDG74 says:

    That $3.69 doesn’t surprise me. We have a couple of notorious gougers here in sw Ohio. There is a Marathon selling regular for $3.499, when others are selling for $2.979 and $2.989.
    The gougers can only stay in business as long as stupid people keep patronizing them.

  4. TimmP says:

    Wholesale gas is up almost 8 cents at this time. Hold onto your wallets.

  5. ChrisDG74 says:

    TimmP
    Wholesale gas is up almost 8 cents at this time. Hold onto your wallets.

    —Gee, who predicted this would happen? Oh yeah. Me.

  6. Chris says:

    An 8 cent spot increase equals about a 25 to 30 cent Greedway increase right?

  7. ChrisDG74 says:

    An 8 cent spot increase equals about a 25 to 30 cent Greedway increase right?

    Or more, depending on your zone. Saw them jump 64 cents at some places, just to get the collusion prices of the last 2 spikes.

  8. ChrisDG74 says:

    The last 3 Ohio spikes have occurred when the retail avg hit 80 cents above spot. As of this morning, Ohio is at 76 cents. If the trend holds true, as well as the after-spike price of spot+95 cents, Ohio should spike to $3.459 today(maybe tomorrow).

    I hope I’m wrong.

  9. Aaron W. says:

    Yikes. 10 cent hike in the Chicago spot. We already have some $3.09s in the Lansing area, so I would tend to watch for a hike on Monday.

  10. A.W says:

    Looks like we have some early reports of $3.399 showing up on the Michigan GasBuddy site… the first hike of the new year! Gas up if needed.

  11. Chris says:

    I saw an article today in USA Today that says the 2013 peak gas price will be $3.95. Sounds like a broken record as they can just cut and past that article and use it for a few more years. Of course $3 feels cheap now and at some point $4 per gallon will be the new three.

  12. Daniel G says:

    Prices showing a move to $3.39 in the North Kent area. Cedar Springs Speedway shows $3.39 as I type.
    Prices a low as $3.07 in South Kent though. $3.07 at Eastern Ave. Gas at Eastern and 44th. Better get it while you can!

  13. ChrisDG74 says:

    Michigan and Indiana both jumping to $3.399.
    Nothing in sw Ohio (YET)

  14. Ocho says:

    By 5 pm it was pretty much 3.39 all over Genessee county. one odd station out @ 3.29, but theyll be sorted by tomorrow…. once again it seems speedway has set the bar. Guessing a drift down to 3.29 by weekend to set up for the next bounce to say, 3.60 something?

  15. ChrisDG74 says:

    Michigan, Indiana and Illinois have all jumped.
    Nothing yet in Kentucky or Ohio, yet. Surely, we will jump today. Goodbye sub-$3 gas, again.

  16. ChrisDG74 says:

    Ohio and Kentucky are now joining in the fun.
    $3.399 is the collusion price.

  17. Chris says:

    I’m currently working in Ft Wayne and it has DROPPED to $3.09. I’m sure it will be short lived. Even saw a GREEDWAY station with that price lol.

  18. ChrisDG74 says:

    I need to retract my comment about OH and KY jumping. Apparently some troll was busy posting a TON of bogus prices this afternoon on gasbuddy. As of now, both OH and KY are spike-free.

  19. Aaron W. says:

    ChrisDG74-
    Was this on GasBuddy? You might want to contact Patrick DeHaan there.

  20. ChrisDG74 says:

    Aaron – yes it was. The troll just happened to pick stations that I pass on my way to and from work. Unless all 12 of them jumped to the same price, at the same time, and all dropped back to their EXACT prices within 3 1/2 hours of when he/she posted, they were posting fake prices. It was a rookie author. Thanks for the info on Patrick.

  21. ChrisDG74 says:

    OK, now OH and KY ARE SPIKING.
    All the way to $3.459. Verified on Greedway’s website.

  22. ChrisDG74 says:

    using yesterday’s close($2.47), today’s Greedway spike puts OH an KY at spot-plus-98 cents. They’re getting closer to that $1 with every spike. I remember when the spike price was spot-plus-70(just a few months ago).

  23. Derek says:

    ChrisD-Where do you get your info for the Spot price(s)?

  24. ChrisDG74 says:

    Derek

    —The link is in one of the articles on the front page, from November. It links to Bloomberg.com.

  25. Chris says:

    WTI Crude continues its steady climb to $100. It’s already up over a buck for the day and I’m sure it won’t be long before Chicago Spot follows. I’m guessing the $3.50 range for east central Indiana by the end of January and the $3.75 range by the end of February.

    Once the switch from winter blend to summer blend takes places, it will hurt our wallets once again. It just never ends.

  26. Turbo46032 says:

    It will not end until serious consumer resistance develops towards retail chains that practice predatory pricing, and until the government takes a more serious look into the issue. My guess is that the reprieve we got was somehow ‘granted’ due to the extraordinary retail prices we had last spring and summer (despite low crude prices in much of the country), the elections, and Santa.

    Now that all 3 are out of the way, there is little reason to not think that $4 will be once again the new $3. All it takes is a few good squirrels.

  27. ChrisDG74 says:

    Lots of stations in sw Ohio already back to pre-spike levels(or close to it), pressured by those that NEVER went up. Looking like a miserable failure on Greedway’s part. At least around here.
    Would be nice to see this EVERY time Greedway jumps, unjustifiably.

  28. Sam says:

    I bet we get a spike here in Grand Rapids this week. GMA reporting this morning that gas prices are up and the price of oil is up again this morning. Glad I filled up yesterday.

  29. ChrisDG74 says:

    Quite the range on sw Ohio this morning. As low as $2.849, and as high as $3.399.
    Makes you wonder, doesn’t it?

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