Month: January 2013

Valero Energy Leads Gas Prices Higher

Comment on the January 14 prediction:  They waited until the end of that week to hike prices, so the prediction was WRONG.

Thursday, January 31, 2013, 2:35PM:  Arrggh.  With my recent travel and work schedule, it has been hard for me to keep up.  I updated my charts late last night, and saw the possibility of a price hike today, but I didn’t get this post out in time.  $3.75?!  Well, it is hard to blame the retailers, as their costs have shot up about 50 cents a gallon in the past two weeks.  And, in fact, January is usually not a kind month for motorists when it comes to gas prices.  The surging stock market hasn’t helped, although I was surprised that gas prices were pretty calm the first half of January.

I’ve started tracking the price of a share of Valero (VLO), the big gas refiner.  This article in Futures Magazine suggests VLO may be a good predictor of gas prices.  Some recent convincing evidence:  VLO has gone from $32 in December to $43 now.  And they are making great profits!  –Ed Aboufadel

Spike line adjustments

My last correct prediction of a spike was back on 11/19/12. Nothing in my methods or formulas have changed, but something is different. I’ve checked into taxes and fees, but I don’t see any new ones for Indiana, Michigan, or Ohio.

That said, I have to do something to get back to being correct on predictions. So I went back, fiddled with the numbers, and came up with this. I will start adding 10¢ to Indy/Indiana, and 15¢ to Michigan. With this addition, I would have predicted correctly all but one Spike in both states since 11/19/12. I did not change Ohio because the prediction for today’s spike there was correct, and the two previous spikes there were very close to being predicted, so an adjustment would not be wise until I see where they go.

That said, here’s what today’s numbers would be with the additional “prediction fee”:

Spike Line Statistics for 1/31/2013

($USD) Indy, Indiana, Michigan
Chicago Spot $2.8332
Change UP $0.0523
USA Average $3.391
($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio
Taxes and Fees $0.7923 $0.7923 $0.8450 $0.5940
Rack Adjustment -$0.0433 -$0.0433 -$0.0366 $0.0549
Spike Line Price $3.5822 $3.5822 $3.6416 $3.4821
Average $3.5660 $3.5470 $3.5440 $3.5510
Spike Line Deviation -$0.0162 -$0.0352 -$0.0976 $0.0689
Suggestion SPIKE SPIKE SPIKE WATCH

Could a spike be in our future? We already had one this week, on an odd day, too since Tuesday and Thursday are the typical spike days. Two in one week are pretty rare, too. But as the market soars, so too will our prices rise. Be on the lookout for a spike in the next couple days unless the market takes a dive.

Go And Fill Thy Tank

Comment on the January 2 prediction:  Prices did slide until Monday the 7th, and then they rose to $3.39.  CORRECT!

Monday, January 14, 2013, 7:00PM:  Wholesale prices haven’t been doing much of anything so far in January.  Since the price hike a week ago, retail prices have been sliding nicely.  This brings us back to the point where we were when the last hike occurred, and we are all set for a price hike to the $3.39-$3.49 range, on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Fill up!

New Year, New Game?

Wednesday, January 2, 2013, 7:20PM:  Happy New Year!  Over the last few years, we’ve pointed out a pattern of gas prices being in line with stock prices.  This made sense as financiers create more and more instruments to trade gas and oil like stocks.  Lately, though, there has been a disconnect, and we’ve seen it this week.  The stock market soared Monday on expectation that Congress would agree on a “fiscal cliff” law, and then today after the law was passed.  Yet, wholesale gas prices actually have gone down a dime this week so far.  So, unless wholesale prices decide to play catch-up tomorrow, I’m expecting gas prices to continue to slide at least until Monday. — Ed Aboufadel

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