My last correct prediction of a spike was back on 11/19/12. Nothing in my methods or formulas have changed, but something is different. I’ve checked into taxes and fees, but I don’t see any new ones for Indiana, Michigan, or Ohio.
That said, I have to do something to get back to being correct on predictions. So I went back, fiddled with the numbers, and came up with this. I will start adding 10¢ to Indy/Indiana, and 15¢ to Michigan. With this addition, I would have predicted correctly all but one Spike in both states since 11/19/12. I did not change Ohio because the prediction for today’s spike there was correct, and the two previous spikes there were very close to being predicted, so an adjustment would not be wise until I see where they go.
That said, here’s what today’s numbers would be with the additional “prediction fee”:
Spike Line Statistics for 1/31/2013
||Indy, Indiana, Michigan
| Chicago Spot
|| UP $0.0523
| USA Average
| Taxes and Fees
| Rack Adjustment
| Spike Line Price
| Spike Line Deviation
Could a spike be in our future? We already had one this week, on an odd day, too since Tuesday and Thursday are the typical spike days. Two in one week are pretty rare, too. But as the market soars, so too will our prices rise. Be on the lookout for a spike in the next couple days unless the market takes a dive.
Comment on the January 2 prediction: Prices did slide until Monday the 7th, and then they rose to $3.39. CORRECT!
Monday, January 14, 2013, 7:00PM: Wholesale prices haven’t been doing much of anything so far in January. Since the price hike a week ago, retail prices have been sliding nicely. This brings us back to the point where we were when the last hike occurred, and we are all set for a price hike to the $3.39-$3.49 range, on Tuesday or Wednesday. Fill up!
Wednesday, January 2, 2013, 7:20PM: Happy New Year! Over the last few years, we’ve pointed out a pattern of gas prices being in line with stock prices. This made sense as financiers create more and more instruments to trade gas and oil like stocks. Lately, though, there has been a disconnect, and we’ve seen it this week. The stock market soared Monday on expectation that Congress would agree on a “fiscal cliff” law, and then today after the law was passed. Yet, wholesale gas prices actually have gone down a dime this week so far. So, unless wholesale prices decide to play catch-up tomorrow, I’m expecting gas prices to continue to slide at least until Monday. — Ed Aboufadel