Comment on the June 12 prediction: We’ve had no hike since June 12, and prices were at or below $3.69 last Monday, so the prediction was CORRECT.
Saturday, June 23, 2012, 4:00PM: Yesterday’s front-page headline on USA Today screamed, “Gas Prices Could Hit $3 By Autumn“. For years, we’ve discussed on this site how gas prices have become intimately tied into the stock market, so USA Today might as well have said, “Dow to Fall to 11,000 by Autumn”. If you really think gas prices are going to $3 a gallon in October, then sell short the UGA fund.
Estimating the wholesale price to retailers using publicly-available data, we can try to predict gas prices a week from now, though, and my prediction is LOWER. Based on Friday’s close, retailers in west Michigan should be paying around $3.20 a gallon right now, down from $3.68 on June 12. So, retail prices have a long way to fall from the $3.50’s that I am seeing as I drive around. Don’t be in a rush to fill up the next several days. — Ed Aboufadel